Down goes the Dow

Oh, the irony!

LOL

From Aug 10.

Ya’ll want some entertainment? Go back to early/mid-August on this thread.

Agip is really taking this meltdown hard and has left this thread for the time being

Over the next year markets will turn this thread from disinterest, apathy, and then despair. Easy money of the last decade evaporates, fundamental economics and finance reasserts itself. Lifetime best investment opportunities will appear when no one cares. Funny how history rhymes.

I care. As do others in the thread. I'm waiting and watching patiently, and will be buying as / when markets swoon further. Likely not this year though, as I think there's probably still a lot of room to fall, and I need to protect our savings from too much short term damage.

Of course you do, and many here do. A better choice of words would be “few care.” The zeitgeist of the period brought us FANG, meme stocks, NFTs, Robinhood, Bitcoin, and quite the frankly index investing boom. You and K5 talk about the stock market being gambling. It was zero interest rates, QE, and stimulus that made gambling appear to be a sure win. Even now the financial media is praying for the stick save of a Fed pivot. Discounting all the damage the Fed has caused with underwriting extreme financial theories, spending, or what was once called investing.

Thread be dead.

Probably your best post. Pretty amazing how the euphoria and despair can be pretty darn good indicators… and it does not seem like we are at the bottoms of despair and disinterest yet.

Do a lot of people still DCA every paycheck? I was looking at returns if you DCA’ed into the SP500 since covid. Not that amazing. Imagine doing the bulk of it since Jan 1st…

Thank you. Most days you turn into the financial media they spin probabilities of the market being up based on some metric. What are the probabilities we are in the first third of a Tulip, South Seas, or more recently Japan 1980s, Tech, or GFC bubble burst? And after the response to the last two domestic bubbles this one really bites, and for quite awhile.

Ok but for any recent financial crises, there was an ignition out of control of the gov etc.

What would be it this time? If the rates go too high, the Fed just lowers them a bit. Even a slight re-adjustment down would cause markets to shoot up 10%+.

Remember that the current energy crises are caused by Russia’s invasion. It wasn’t Fed rates or liquidity that caused this.

Are you going to base your predictions for the next 10-20 years on what happened in the last 2 years?

I say that is the consensus view, a Fed put is still alive. On the other hand, the Fed may have painted itself into the corner of twin devils of inflation and stagnation. Zillow says our home has dropped 20% from the market high, I would say the high was higher, and the true market price lower. Like the NASDAQ, down 30% from the high. Sure gasoline is cheaper, but not a bag of groceries. Starting November 1st my barber is raising her price from $17 to $20. According to her, business has slowed, and the landlord raised her rent. We use natural gas for cooking and heating the house. We received a notice to expect a 15% increase in rates. Although it is convenient to blame Putin’s War, the real culprit is deranged central bank monetary policy, and the unhinged government spending the central banks are attempting to finance.

You don’t know what education means?

I think we all know what ”adjusted” means.

For U.S. equity bulls, many things were in their favor overnight Thursday to Friday morning U.S.

* One of three, Nikkei, Hong Kong and Shanghai were up Friday (east Asia Friday).

* F.T.S.E. 100 (London), F.T.S.E. 350 (London), CAC 40 (Paris) and DAX (Frankfurt) all finished up. U.S. tends to be more correlated with London, Paris and Frankfurt than Tokyo, Hong Kong and Shanghai.

* End of the month so many traders, mutual fund managers and chief strategists want to do a bit of window dressing.

* End of quarter yesterday so it is a must for many traders, mutual fund managers and chief strategists to do window dressing.

* I only purchase individual stocks for specific reasons. Efficient Market Theory applies to everyone interested except those who work at a corporation. I thought indices were too pricey for my liking at about 3:30 pm E.T. yesterday then ITOT/SPY/IVV/MDY/IJR all fell like a rock of the edge of a cliff from 3:30 pm to 4pm ET yesterday. I stepped away and ... . Who knows how I would have done with trading yesterday.

* Everything is looking down for U.S. equities this week ahead BUT phone calls may be made. Biden may make some phone calls and tell whales he needs them buying big time next week.

I was surprised to see it reverse and head down as the day progressed. But consider that it is the last day of the quarter and mutual funds and hedge funds have to report their holdings to shareholders as of the close on that very day. So, think about it. A really crappy quarter. How does a fund manager dress up the pig so it looks presentable to the clients? Well, at the end of such a bad quarter, they would sell of course, and make it look like they were strategically out of the equities and heavy in cash.

So, maybe just window dressing?

No way to know for sure, but I wouldn't rule it out, and said explanation does seem rational, imo.

And it's fairly well known that the last day of a quarter often does crazy stuff.

I forgot to add dividends on ITOT, IVV & IJR yesterday. Dividend reinvestment trades usually occur before noon E.T.