We probably have another 10-20% to shed from the market before things start pointing back up. Bidenflation, it's a wastin', your wealth away....
I am guessing more than that.
WE are down 25% or so depending on the indices you look at YTD.
I think we are less than 1/2 way to the bottom
Now you’re making me uncomfortable because I agree entirely.
Your third sentence is the core belief at the foundation of my “idiot” persona in this thread. I believe there is virtually no useful information available that can be reliably distinguished from noise in relation to what the markets are likely to do, except over the very long term. Hence, when it comes to interpreting the market’s likely moves, I am an idiot.
The part I’ve never said out loud but may have been evident to some is that I think we all are. Sorry about that, to those just catching up… I know we all like to parse the days events, reading the tea leaves to guess the next move. I’m pretty sure a ouija board would perform as well as our collective efforts, and that the proverbial dart throwing monkey, being an unemotional participant, would outperform most of us over the long run… 😀
Now you’re making me uncomfortable because I agree entirely.
Your third sentence is the core belief at the foundation of my “idiot” persona in this thread. I believe there is virtually no useful information available that can be reliably distinguished from noise in relation to what the markets are likely to do, except over the very long term. Hence, when it comes to interpreting the market’s likely moves, I am an idiot.
The part I’ve never said out loud but may have been evident to some is that I think we all are. Sorry about that, to those just catching up… I know we all like to parse the days events, reading the tea leaves to guess the next move. I’m pretty sure a ouija board would perform as well as our collective efforts, and that the proverbial dart throwing monkey, being an unemotional participant, would outperform most of us over the long run…
😀
There are big players, influencers, and people with inside info who can influence the market.
But most of us are just riders on the storm.
Sometimes I think I can see where they are going with their manipulations, but I am probably fooling myself
I know we all like to parse the days events, reading the tea leaves to guess the next move. I’m pretty sure a ouija board would perform as well as our collective efforts, and that the proverbial dart throwing monkey, being an unemotional participant, would outperform most of us over the long run… 😀
Not all of us are laser focused on the day’ events. I think day trading is an exercise for the foolish and there are some on this thread whose daily actions support that hypothesis. I definitely take the longer view and don’t overreact to the tweets of some nimrod or a day gain/drop of a percentage point or two. The long view has served me well. I only come here occasionally to read the overreactions of some of the more prolific posters which serves to reinforce that I am on the right track.
We probably have another 10-20% to shed from the market before things start pointing back up. Bidenflation, it's a wastin', your wealth away....
I am guessing more than that.
WE are down 25% or so depending on the indices you look at YTD.
I think we are less than 1/2 way to the bottom
The market is nominally already down 20%+ (when adjusted for inflation, it is closer to 30%). I think it will end up nominally 30-40% down before it starts to drift back up (40-50% down when adjusted for inflation). The biggest risk right now is velocity. If velocity causes galloping or hyper-inflation, things could get scary.
I know we all like to parse the days events, reading the tea leaves to guess the next move. I’m pretty sure a ouija board would perform as well as our collective efforts, and that the proverbial dart throwing monkey, being an unemotional participant, would outperform most of us over the long run… 😀
Not all of us are laser focused on the day’ events. I think day trading is an exercise for the foolish and there are some on this thread whose daily actions support that hypothesis. I definitely take the longer view and don’t overreact to the tweets of some nimrod or a day gain/drop of a percentage point or two. The long view has served me well. I only come here occasionally to read the overreactions of some of the more prolific posters which serves to reinforce that I am on the right track.
Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.
If, for example, BO downgrades a stock like Apple (which means nothing as to the value of Apple as a company) and you have a lot of Apple stock, why not get out on the reasonable assumption it will take a hit. Then buy it back. Of course by the time we get the news, the insiders have already have taken advantage and we cannot react quick enough.
Long term is all fine and dandy, by why ignore current events and trends?
Market in pre opening giving away about 1/2 of yeserday's huge gains.
Seems yesterday's rally was in reponse to the move by the Bank of England.
Temporary run-up with no legs.
Expect to return to marker collapse today.'
At least I hope so. Yesterday was worst day for me in some time
Yesterday, all U.S. major indices were up. Why was yesterday worst day ..? Did you short indices yesterday? Did you write CALL contract(s) yesterday?
I lost $$ yesterday. Worst day in a while but not so bad as the indiv stocks I hold outperformed the market. I made far more today than I lost yesterday. I don't do puts and calls nor do I short stocks, I have ETFS that run counter to the S+P and NASDQ. One of them does 2x (you can get some that do 3x)
If, for example, BO downgrades a stock like Apple (which means nothing as to the value of Apple as a company) and you have a lot of Apple stock, why not get out on the reasonable assumption it will take a hit. Then buy it back. Of course by the time we get the news, the insiders have already have taken advantage and we cannot react quick enough.
Long term is all fine and dandy, by why ignore current events and trends?
If, for example, BO downgrades a stock like Apple (which means nothing as to the value of Apple as a company) and you have a lot of Apple stock, why not get out on the reasonable assumption it will take a hit. Then buy it back. Of course by the time we get the news, the insiders have already have taken advantage and we cannot react quick enough.
Long term is all fine and dandy, by why ignore current events and trends?
You answered your own question.
So you will take a ride down that you feel pretty sure is coming?
You do realize that a 20% drop now will hurt your long term return?
And that the $$ you end up losing out on in the long run are far higher than the $$ you lose now?
Maybe you just have no guesses as to what the market is doing at any time?
Yesterday, all U.S. major indices were up. Why was yesterday worst day ..? Did you short indices yesterday? Did you write CALL contract(s) yesterday?
I lost $ yesterday. Worst day in a while but not so bad as the indiv stocks I hold outperformed the market. I made far more today than I lost yesterday. I don't do puts and calls nor do I short stocks, I have ETFS that run counter to the S+P and NASDQ. One of them does 2x (you can get some that do 3x)
As I type, I'm looking at S&P 500 chart going back to 1946. November, 1968, 906.xx. S&P 500 didn't stay about 906 until December, 1992. I'm not going to trust anyone else's SHORT &/or PUT/CALL strategy. I may write CALL contracts on S&P 500, something I haven't don't done in about 12 to 15 years. The reason why we're down over 20% for the year doesn't seem likely to change soon.
I lost $ yesterday. Worst day in a while but not so bad as the indiv stocks I hold outperformed the market. I made far more today than I lost yesterday. I don't do puts and calls nor do I short stocks, I have ETFS that run counter to the S+P and NASDQ. One of them does 2x (you can get some that do 3x)
As I type, I'm looking at S&P 500 chart going back to 1946. November, 1968, 906.xx. S&P 500 didn't stay about 906 until December, 1992. I'm not going to trust anyone else's SHORT &/or PUT/CALL strategy. I may write CALL contracts on S&P 500, something I haven't don't done in about 12 to 15 years. The reason why we're down over 20% for the year doesn't seem likely to change soon.
It's all a guess for those of us on the outside.
I am guessing the decline will continue and so have $$ in ETFs that do that
I am guessing the decline will continue and so have $ in ETFs that do that
I did a bit of that earlier in the year with SQQQ. But even though the holdings (bets) were small, I found the market gyrations to be nerve wracking. I went harder to cash and I’ve been sleeping peacefully, which is frankly worth the potential missed gains, to me.
As I type, I'm looking at S&P 500 chart going back to 1946. November, 1968, 906.xx. S&P 500 didn't stay about 906 until December, 1992. I'm not going to trust anyone else's SHORT &/or PUT/CALL strategy. I may write CALL contracts on S&P 500, something I haven't don't done in about 12 to 15 years. The reason why we're down over 20% for the year doesn't seem likely to change soon.
It's all a guess for those of us on the outside.
I am guessing the decline will continue and so have $ in ETFs that do that
It's nothing more than an educated guess for those on the inside too. Remember when top brass at Goldman Sachs were crying and begging at the feet of Warren Buffett? The only reason Goldman Sachs didn't suffer what occurred to Long Term Capital Management, Solomon Brothers, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, W. Buffett had B.H. save G.S.
I am guessing the decline will continue and so have $ in ETFs that do that
It's nothing more than an educated guess for those on the inside too. Remember when top brass at Goldman Sachs were crying and begging at the feet of Warren Buffett? The only reason Goldman Sachs didn't suffer what occurred to Long Term Capital Management, Solomon Brothers, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, W. Buffett had B.H. save G.S.
Well, look at all the ignorant policies coming from the Fed, and other central banks. Politicians, Washington? Hollywood for ugly people. Better use your own brain, your own instincts, these people are stupid ideologues. Warren Buffett comes off as your friendly neighbor next door, while cutting back room deals. Long ago strayed from his value investment roots. Becky Quickies drool farm.