S&P500 at 3627 as I type this... Looking a lot like the beginning of capitulation... Now the question is how low it will go and for how long. Even down this much, it's hard for most anyone using margin when rates are this high and likely to go up another 1-2% over the next several months and likely mostly stay there awhile. Seems like a bit of a paradigm shift in the market over the next 1-3 years compared to the previous 10. Still gonna put in as much spare cash as I can though...
I just think the Fed aims to work for the average US citizen. So job losses in overheated refi/mortgage and tech bros making 500k to make Snapchat goggles APIs is one thing. If there are signs of mass layoffs or small businesses closing… they are gonna pivot. Plus how is there gonna be a lot of inflation in that situation?
Fed would never give a nod of this now, it’s all crowd psychological. So Powell comes out guns blazing in rhetoric but they only did 75bps va 100 anyway.
SP500 below 3000 is serious job loss territory. Plus the amount of USD in the system is much higher than 2019, so how could a sub 3000 be realistic in nominal terms?
I figure if we go down another 20% from here that’s 1k loss on 5k principal… nbd when you’re single no family etc.
If remains so, may sell some stocks on the theory this is the best price I will get for them for sometime and the market crash will resume shortly.
Maybe not though; I don't handle big down days well and hedging my bigger bets against the market with a handful of individual stocks oft softens the losses on any day the market does well.
Should have had the nerve to follow my intial thought and dump some stocks this AM when they were well up.
My intution that the market would return to its losing ways before the day was over has so far proved to be accurate
S&P500 at 3627 as I type this... Looking a lot like the beginning of capitulation... Now the question is how low it will go and for how long. Even down this much, it's hard for most anyone using margin when rates are this high and likely to go up another 1-2% over the next several months and likely mostly stay there awhile. Seems like a bit of a paradigm shift in the market over the next 1-3 years compared to the previous 10. Still gonna put in as much spare cash as I can though...
What seems to support your thesis of a capitulation is the relative outperformance of the Nasdaq while the SNP 500 is still selling off. And Apple showing relative strength in amidst all this speaks to the idea that perhaps the big damage has been done, and now the safer refuges like SNP 500 and Dow are suffering the last of the selling and are shaking out the loose hands, to be followed with buying (like Nas is experiencing, somewhat).
Small caps getting hit pretty hard lately, and i think the logic there may be that with the chances of a recession more likely in the last few weeks, large cap and their larger relative cash reserves are a safer bet to be able to weather a storm, should one fully materialize.
S&P500 at 3627 as I type this... Looking a lot like the beginning of capitulation... Now the question is how low it will go and for how long. Even down this much, it's hard for most anyone using margin when rates are this high and likely to go up another 1-2% over the next several months and likely mostly stay there awhile. Seems like a bit of a paradigm shift in the market over the next 1-3 years compared to the previous 10. Still gonna put in as much spare cash as I can though...
What seems to support your thesis of a capitulation is the relative outperformance of the Nasdaq while the SNP 500 is still selling off. And Apple showing relative strength in amidst all this speaks to the idea that perhaps the big damage has been done, and now the safer refuges like SNP 500 and Dow are suffering the last of the selling and are shaking out the loose hands, to be followed with buying (like Nas is experiencing, somewhat).
Small caps getting hit pretty hard lately, and i think the logic there may be that with the chances of a recession more likely in the last few weeks, large cap and their larger relative cash reserves are a safer bet to be able to weather a storm, should one fully materialize.
What seems to support your thesis of a capitulation is the relative outperformance of the Nasdaq while the SNP 500 is still selling off. And Apple showing relative strength in amidst all this speaks to the idea that perhaps the big damage has been done, and now the safer refuges like SNP 500 and Dow are suffering the last of the selling and are shaking out the loose hands, to be followed with buying (like Nas is experiencing, somewhat).
Small caps getting hit pretty hard lately, and i think the logic there may be that with the chances of a recession more likely in the last few weeks, large cap and their larger relative cash reserves are a safer bet to be able to weather a storm, should one fully materialize.
Lots of jargin in there, be that as it may.
Beyond jargon.
Not surprised you would find it challenging.
But tell me again how your are trading in barley futures, and sending the proceeds to your bank via an ETF.
But tell me again how your are trading in barley futures, and sending the proceeds to your bank via an ETF.
TIA.
Challenging?
"What seems to support your thesis of a capitulation is the relative outperformance of the Nasdaq while the SNP 500 is still selling off. And Apple showing relative strength in amidst all this speaks to the idea that perhaps the big damage has been done, and now the safer refuges like SNP 500 and Dow are suffering the last of the selling and are shaking out the loose hands, to be followed with buying (like Nas is experiencing, somewhat). Small caps getting hit pretty hard lately, and i think the logic there may be that with the chances of a recession more likely in the last few weeks, large cap and their larger relative cash reserves are a safer bet to be able to weather a storm, should one fully materialize."