Despite my etf bets against the market doing very well yesterday (up 1.6%, 1.7%, and 3.3% respectively) the hammering of my biggest oil stock (down nearly 11%), the nearly 5% losses in Tesla and bitcoin holdings, and my "losses" in bonds and cds held (I never sell these so do not consider them losses), I ended up in the hole yesterday.
I will look to see what's happening Monday.
I am leaning toward dumping some indiv stocks if they bounce back a bit)
A weird once-in a lifetime where the most expensive major stock on the planet matches a bear fund. (hussman)
Have to see value as doing very very well. My biggest holding is a value fund that is up a percent over the last year. Everyone wrote off value but look at this.
A 60/40 fund down 18% really hurts. Worst since the depression from what I understand.
Dividends also did very well.
Despite everyone mocking gold....-6 ain't bad.
Don't buy and hold VXX
The most shocking is that -20% Investment quality corps. We'll never see that again.
Short term junk bonds seem to be doing their job at delivering 3/4 return at 1/2 the risk. Or something like that.
Consumer staples did exactly what they are supposed to do: protect against down stock markets. But they are down 8% in a month....looks like they are selling even staples now. Ouch.
In the end, a -20% stock market over a year is hardly news. But a -14% bond market is a stunner. Sure hurt me. Although I suppose you could say bonds still did better than stocks.
A weird once-in a lifetime where the most expensive major stock on the planet matches a bear fund. (hussman)
Have to see value as doing very very well. My biggest holding is a value fund that is up a percent over the last year. Everyone wrote off value but look at this.
A 60/40 fund down 18% really hurts. Worst since the depression from what I understand.
Dividends also did very well.
Despite everyone mocking gold....-6 ain't bad.
Don't buy and hold VXX
The most shocking is that -20% Investment quality corps. We'll never see that again.
Short term junk bonds seem to be doing their job at delivering 3/4 return at 1/2 the risk. Or something like that.
Consumer staples did exactly what they are supposed to do: protect against down stock markets. But they are down 8% in a month....looks like they are selling even staples now. Ouch.
In the end, a -20% stock market over a year is hardly news. But a -14% bond market is a stunner. Sure hurt me. Although I suppose you could say bonds still did better than stocks.
I don't pay attention to bond losses.
Maybe it doesn't make sense, but as all the bonds I own have a term of less than 12 months and I always hold them to maturity, I don't worry about my losses.
The delta beween the face value of the bonds and Cds I own and their MV is nearly $50k and increasing every day....but I know the MV will get to the face value when I cash put.
Unlike equites and ETFs where you do not know where the MV wil be down the road.
Looks like it may be time to bet against the pound. Down @ 30% vs dollar in last 1/2 year and really tanked last week.
question is how much earnings estimates come down I suppose. We're actually supposed to have revenue and earnings growth this quarter over a year ago. Although if you take out energy I suspect there won't be much growth of anything.
But market doesn't seem expensive. if earnings hang in there.
Interesting to see that 10 years ago, the forward PE was just 12. Which would have suggested good returns for the next 10 years, leading up to 2022. Which happened. Even now, the 2012-2022 return for the SP500 is a very high 12% per year.
A current forward PE of 16 suggests less good returns for the next 10 years. But at least we can get 5% from bonds now, which should make up for shortfalls from stocks.
FactSet @FactSet The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 15.8 is below the 5-year average (18.6) and below the 10-year average (17.0). #earnings, #earningsinsight,
With the price of the S&P 500 falling by 17% since March 31 and concerns about a recession rising in recent weeks, where do industry analysts believe the price of the index will go from here?
question is how much earnings estimates come down I suppose. We're actually supposed to have revenue and earnings growth this quarter over a year ago. Although if you take out energy I suspect there won't be much growth of anything.
But market doesn't seem expensive. if earnings hang in there.
Interesting to see that 10 years ago, the forward PE was just 12. Which would have suggested good returns for the next 10 years, leading up to 2022. Which happened. Even now, the 2012-2022 return for the SP500 is a very high 12% per year.
A current forward PE of 16 suggests less good returns for the next 10 years. But at least we can get 5% from bonds now, which should make up for shortfalls from stocks.
FactSet @FactSet The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 15.8 is below the 5-year average (18.6) and below the 10-year average (17.0). #earnings, #earningsinsight,
Given that the price/revenue ratio is among the valuation measures best-correlated with actual subsequent total returns in market cycles across history, it's nice to see this measure back down to the 2000 highs.
To say the market is near fair value at this point ignores almost every valuation metric available. To constantly make excuses for the same seems foolish to me. One can’t even use the poor excuse of the “Fed has your back” anymore.
there's a real chance the Fed will note all this deflationary data pretty soon. Which would obviously be bullish.
but it might be too late...with every central bank on the planet raising rates that might have been enough already to knock the economic supertanker off its course toward recession.
WSJ:
Apartment rents are falling from record highs across the U.S. for the first time in nearly two years, offering the prospect of relief to millions of tenants who have seen steep increases during the pandemic.
August apartment asking rents nationally fell 0.1% from July, according to a report from property data company CoStar Group. It was the first monthly decline in rent since December 2020, the company said.
Other surveys also showed rent declines of various degrees. Apartment-listing website Rent.com showed a 2.8% decrease in rent for one-bedroom apartments during the same month. A third measure, by the listings website Realtor.com, also noted a slight monthly decline in rent this August.
no way stocks can bounce until bonds stop cratering and find some solid ground.
Investment quality corp bonds down another percent, down 7% in a month. 20% in a year.
starting to feel like a financial crisis and not just a bear market. Which would be very bad.
have to hand it to Igy - whatever he’s been saying has been playing out pretty much exactly as he said it would.
Just 8 years later.
I first posted in March of 2015 that stocks were expensive, and the next big move would be lower, which it was prior to the Shanghai Accord of central bank coordination. Since then things have devolved with the Covid release to extreme levels of activism. The market low in March 2020 was at the same level when I first posted five years earlier. Since that time we say record speculation in crypto, meme stocks, bonds, FANG, SPACs, and even used cars. I would bet at a minimum we retouch the March 2020 lows, and at that point the market would still be expensive.
My comments have always been based on traditional stock valuation metrics, that are typically discounted in bull markets, especially in the speculative phase. Hence a large part of the harassment from the Troll. Attacks on convention become a crusade.
I like what I'm seeing tbh. If the fed can get inflation down while returning bond yields back to a range where they can be legitimately be considered income I'll be pretty happy. Watching the Robin Hood/ Reddit/ Wall Street Bets dumbf*cks get crushed with no place to turn is just icing on thee cake.
I like what I'm seeing tbh. If the fed can get inflation down while returning bond yields back to a range where they can be legitimately be considered income I'll be pretty happy. Watching the Robin Hood/ Reddit/ Wall Street Bets dumbf*cks get crushed with no place to turn is just icing on thee cake.
I like what I'm seeing tbh. If the fed can get inflation down while returning bond yields back to a range where they can be legitimately be considered income I'll be pretty happy. Watching the Robin Hood/ Reddit/ Wall Street Bets dumbf*cks get crushed with no place to turn is just icing on thee cake.
