Agip - how could you ever say you never want to own stocks again? Unless you are very close to retiring that is crazy. S & P returns from 1928 to 12/31/21 were just a tad under 12%. That is crazy returns. The inflation now is 8.3%. Eating up your purchasing power.
As an aside, I read that when you take out the 6 most expensive stocks in the SP500 the PE goes down to 12 or something like that. Two-sided knife but interesting if true.
this says 15 for a slightly different subset but you get the idea.
you could buy the SP500 unweighted (RSP) and get a quite low PE on the big cap US market.
Biggest five stocks in the S&P 500 are still too pricey given rising rates. The rest of the index trades at just 15x. pic.twitter.com/ItrSEWpuWh
I think you are worse than me when it comes to reacting to what's going on in the market.
And I am pretty bad.
Agip - how could you ever say you never want to own stocks again? Unless you are very close to retiring that is crazy. S & P returns from 1928 to 12/31/21 were just a tad under 12%. That is crazy returns. The inflation now is 8.3%. Eating up your purchasing power.
One of the most popular equity indices, the Standard & Poor’s Index, was created in 1926 to reflect the performance of the top 500 largest companies in the US Stock Market. In the last 95 years (1926 – 2022) the S&P 500 Historical Annual Return is around 10% to 11%, and 7% inflation-adjusted returns based on historical data.
I suppose this is the bull case....we've had a washout. That everyone who is going to sell has already sold and will have to buy back in, creating a virtuous cycle.
Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick AAII bears >60% for only the 5th time in history. One of the worst years ever for a 60/40 portfolio will do that, but note the avg return a year later for the S&P 500 was more than 33%. "When everyone is alike, then somebody isn't thinking." General Patton
Agip - how could you ever say you never want to own stocks again? Unless you are very close to retiring that is crazy. S & P returns from 1928 to 12/31/21 were just a tad under 12%. That is crazy returns. The inflation now is 8.3%. Eating up your purchasing power.
One of the most popular equity indices, the Standard & Poor’s Index, was created in 1926 to reflect the performance of the top 500 largest companies in the US Stock Market. In the last 95 years (1926 – 2022) the S&P 500 Historical Annual Return is around 10% to 11%, and 7% inflation-adjusted returns based on historical data.
The S&P 500, which is short for Standard & Poor's 500, was introduced in 1957 as a stock market index to track the value of 500 corporations that have their stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ Composite. All earnings data prior to that time are estimates of likely index return.
97 days since the low. I'm guessing we won't make it much past 100.
Reminds me of the widely spaced twin bottoms during the GFC.
Still 4% higher than the June lows though.
The Fed is not going to stop until they put us into a hard recession. There was just too much money pumped into the system by Biden and the Dems. What can Biden and the Dems do to prevent further escalation?
1. Stop the student loan relief (I guess the only entity left to stop that $400 billion to $1 trillion from adding to inflation is the courts).
2. Ask states to return money to the Treasury from the ARP that they are sitting on that they never needed in the first place rather than using it to buy votes by handing it out to their constituents as many state governments are doing, where it will only add to inflation.
3. Stop trying to spend your way out of inflation.
Biden spent way too much money in a short period of time when it was not needed. The Fed waited too long to take corrective action and is rapidly trying to catch up. This rapid escalation will bring down inflation, but it may cause significant collateral damage, primarily the collapse of the housing market, automotive industry and capital investments by businesses. People like Yellen and Powell feign ignorance, but everyone could see this coming.
One of the most popular equity indices, the Standard & Poor’s Index, was created in 1926 to reflect the performance of the top 500 largest companies in the US Stock Market. In the last 95 years (1926 – 2022) the S&P 500 Historical Annual Return is around 10% to 11%, and 7% inflation-adjusted returns based on historical data.
The S&P 500, which is short for Standard & Poor's 500, was introduced in 1957 as a stock market index to track the value of 500 corporations that have their stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ Composite. All earnings data prior to that time are estimates of likely index return.
Igy, actually Standard and Poor's introduced an index covering 233 companies in 1923. The index was expanded to 500 companies in 1957.
The S&P 500, which is short for Standard & Poor's 500, was introduced in 1957 as a stock market index to track the value of 500 corporations that have their stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ Composite. All earnings data prior to that time are estimates of likely index return.
Igy, actually Standard and Poor's introduced an index covering 233 companies in 1923. The index was expanded to 500 companies in 1957.
the treasury market is getting disorderly which is terrible news.
10 year up to 3.7%
investment quality corporates being dumped...the ETF is down 1.7% today.
even after all we've been through this year this might be the worst day for bonds yet.
but more to the point, if the treasury market does not settle down I'd guess the stock market will have a real crash. it's all based on a risk free rate....and if the rfr can't be determined nothing works.
I totally underestimated the power of the fed to affect markets. This is remarkable
The tone deafness of the Biden Administration to the energy concerns of US citizens is alarming. People are going to be paying a ton of money to heat their homes this winter and Democrats are continuing their attack on the fossil fuel industry. Did anyone catch the exchange between Tlaib and bank CEOs in the news this morning. Classic.
Evidently Tlaib doesn't believe people with student loans don't heat their homes, use electricity or drive cars. The willful ignorance of the left when it comes to things like inflation is insane.
Who is doing that other than the oil companies themselves? There are over 9,000 leases on federal land that have been approved but are unused.
Executive order 13990 - Ended Keystone XL, changed the permitting process for oil and gas drilling to essentially make it economically unviable to perform new oil and gas drilling, placed a moratorium on drilling on federal lands, and eliminates any perceived fossil fuel subsidies [hardly any exist, most subsidies (and they are extensive) go to renewable energy projects].
Executive order 14008
February 26, 2021 - Biden updates the "social cost of greenhouse gas emissions," dramatically altering the way the U.S. government calculates the real-world costs of climate change. The move could reshape a range of consequences, from whether to allow new fossil fuel leasing on federal lands and waters to what sort of steel is used in taxpayer-funded infrastructure projects. The administration plans to boost the figure it will use to assess greenhouse gas pollution's damage inflicts on society to $51 per ton of carbon dioxide – a rate more than seven times higher than that used by former president Donald Trump. But experts say it could reach as high as $125 per ton once the administration conducts a more thorough analysis. This would apply to any new oil and gas lease sale, raising producers’ costs to deliver new supplies.
Basically, Biden has said there will be no new drilling on federal lands, which means that natural gas, oil, and other petroleum products in this country will be limited to existing wells and that no new infrastructure projects will be approved (other than Manchin's Mountain Valley Pipeline which got streamlined as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, more rules for thee and not for me from the left).
Who is doing that other than the oil companies themselves? There are over 9,000 leases on federal land that have been approved but are unused.
Executive order 13990 - Ended Keystone XL, changed the permitting process for oil and gas drilling to essentially make it economically unviable to perform new oil and gas drilling, placed a moratorium on drilling on federal lands, and eliminates any perceived fossil fuel subsidies [hardly any exist, most subsidies (and they are extensive) go to renewable energy projects].
Executive order 14008
February 26, 2021 - Biden updates the "social cost of greenhouse gas emissions," dramatically altering the way the U.S. government calculates the real-world costs of climate change. The move could reshape a range of consequences, from whether to allow new fossil fuel leasing on federal lands and waters to what sort of steel is used in taxpayer-funded infrastructure projects. The administration plans to boost the figure it will use to assess greenhouse gas pollution's damage inflicts on society to $51 per ton of carbon dioxide – a rate more than seven times higher than that used by former president Donald Trump. But experts say it could reach as high as $125 per ton once the administration conducts a more thorough analysis. This would apply to any new oil and gas lease sale, raising producers’ costs to deliver new supplies.
Basically, Biden has said there will be no new drilling on federal lands, which means that natural gas, oil, and other petroleum products in this country will be limited to existing wells and that no new infrastructure projects will be approved (other than Manchin's Mountain Valley Pipeline which got streamlined as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, more rules for thee and not for me from the left).
The moratorium was not on drilling, but on the leasing of federal lands. Oh, and that moratorium ended months ago. Not that it mattered as there were already thousands of existing leases available as I previously pointed out.
As for KXL, I assume you realize that was to be used for importing oil.
Executive order 13990 - Ended Keystone XL, changed the permitting process for oil and gas drilling to essentially make it economically unviable to perform new oil and gas drilling, placed a moratorium on drilling on federal lands, and eliminates any perceived fossil fuel subsidies [hardly any exist, most subsidies (and they are extensive) go to renewable energy projects].
Executive order 14008
February 26, 2021 - Biden updates the "social cost of greenhouse gas emissions," dramatically altering the way the U.S. government calculates the real-world costs of climate change. The move could reshape a range of consequences, from whether to allow new fossil fuel leasing on federal lands and waters to what sort of steel is used in taxpayer-funded infrastructure projects. The administration plans to boost the figure it will use to assess greenhouse gas pollution's damage inflicts on society to $51 per ton of carbon dioxide – a rate more than seven times higher than that used by former president Donald Trump. But experts say it could reach as high as $125 per ton once the administration conducts a more thorough analysis. This would apply to any new oil and gas lease sale, raising producers’ costs to deliver new supplies.
Basically, Biden has said there will be no new drilling on federal lands, which means that natural gas, oil, and other petroleum products in this country will be limited to existing wells and that no new infrastructure projects will be approved (other than Manchin's Mountain Valley Pipeline which got streamlined as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, more rules for thee and not for me from the left).
The moratorium was not on drilling, but on the leasing of federal lands. Oh, and that moratorium ended months ago. Not that it mattered as there were already thousands of existing leases available as I previously pointed out.
As for KXL, I assume you realize that was to be used for importing oil.
If you can't understand how Biden and the left have hamstrung the oil and gas industry in this country, then you aren't paying attention and are as clueless as members of the Administration that claim to have not been able to foresee the inflation conundrum we are currently under.
On 9/21/022, Joe Biden got lost on stage again. Biden started walking aimlessly off the stage after a speech at The Global Fund. He held his hands in front o...
