have to say...I'm getting that feeling that I never want to own stocks ever again.
which is probably what hundreds of millions of people are feeling.
which would tend to point toward a bottom.
+1
The hallmark of capitulation, which usually sets the bottom.
The best explanation i've heard is that Powell is discussing numbers a little larger than previously mentioned, and i take that to mean the 4.6% boosting of rates into next year rather than the more modest 4.0%, which was previously thought.
I am a little surprised it sold off into the close, though.
Being pedantic a bit, maybe, but I distinguish between predictions and forecasts. A prediction is when you say something specific will happen, and maybe you will also say when it will happen, without allowing for any uncertainty.
A forecast is a statement that "something will probably happen," maybe with a timeframe, and maybe with a description of the associated uncertainty.
Semantics aside, there's an important difference between an academic understanding of (and capability with) mathematical principles and their practical application. Nearly all decisions are made under uncertainty, and an ability to forecast well leads to high rate of success in making "good" decisions (i.e., decisions that have a positive outcome).
The naive forecasts I've offered in this thread have never been presented as what I would consider to be predictions; I've included bounds of estimated uncertainty in my forecasts. When the uncertainty bounds are very wide (as mine have tended to be), the practical utility of the forecast may be very small.
What we are all trying to do on here, at least implicitly, is to reduce uncertainty and improve our forecasts. The problem, as I see it, is that most "information" we have available to us is mere noise, dressed up like signal, and while we may improve our personal confidence in our forecasts, we rarely reduce the actual uncertainty.
Most of us long-timers in this thread are continually forecasting that stocks will go up, and those folks will be right most of the time, and that may be good enough for most of you. Some of us (Igy, C9, me, maybe others) spend some time thinking about the other possibility, which, while rare, can ruin a lot of people's days, some of the time.
No charge for that one, keep your $0.02... :-D
And I don't think I was being attacked, just misunderstood...
have to say...I'm getting that feeling that I never want to own stocks ever again.
which is probably what hundreds of millions of people are feeling.
which would tend to point toward a bottom.
I think you are worse than me when it comes to reacting to what's going on in the market.
And I am pretty bad.
Agip - how could you ever say you never want to own stocks again? Unless you are very close to retiring that is crazy. S & P returns from 1928 to 12/31/21 were just a tad under 12%. That is crazy returns. The inflation now is 8.3%. Eating up your purchasing power.
I think you are worse than me when it comes to reacting to what's going on in the market.
And I am pretty bad.
Agip - how could you ever say you never want to own stocks again? Unless you are very close to retiring that is crazy. S & P returns from 1928 to 12/31/21 were just a tad under 12%. That is crazy returns. The inflation now is 8.3%. Eating up your purchasing power.
Sally, agip has had huge gains since 1928. He started investing at age 16, and at 110 he figured it was a good time to take the stock allocation down to 50/50. I would agree it is about time to lock in the gains on that 10%, perhaps a bit more. :-)
Agip - how could you ever say you never want to own stocks again? Unless you are very close to retiring that is crazy. S & P returns from 1928 to 12/31/21 were just a tad under 12%. That is crazy returns. The inflation now is 8.3%. Eating up your purchasing power.
Sally, agip has had huge gains since 1928. He started investing at age 16, and at 110 he figured it was a good time to take the stock allocation down to 50/50. I would agree it is about time to lock in the gains on that 10%, perhaps a bit more. :-)
Sally, agip has had huge gains since 1928. He started investing at age 16, and at 110 he figured it was a good time to take the stock allocation down to 50/50. I would agree it is about time to lock in the gains on that 10%, perhaps a bit more. :-)
And I figured he was 35 max!
Nah, that's how many years he beat the stock market..
If the Fed continues to raise rates or even simply keep rates this high, AND they increase QT, what does that mean for the market and the economy? We're already down more than 20% YTD, moreso factoring in inflation, yet the future still looks worse in my opinion if this trajectory holds... We were at 3386 before the pandemic started in 2020. Any chance all gains since then get wiped out? Will there be some kind of major rebound after we weather this storm? I've been investing and following the markets and economy since 2008, and what we're experiencing now seems very different from anything else in that time... Makes it hard to feel confident in your predictions/decisions.
If the Fed continues to raise rates or even simply keep rates this high, AND they increase QT, what does that mean for the market and the economy? We're already down more than 20% YTD, moreso factoring in inflation, yet the future still looks worse in my opinion if this trajectory holds... We were at 3386 before the pandemic started in 2020. Any chance all gains since then get wiped out? Will there be some kind of major rebound after we weather this storm? I've been investing and following the markets and economy since 2008, and what we're experiencing now seems very different from anything else in that time... Makes it hard to feel confident in your predictions/decisions.
I think you can kiss the pandemic index gains goodbye. I would say at a minimum we get to the pandemic lows of ~2,300. As bad as that sounds, I would consider it a gift that the index doesn’t go lower. The entire construct of QE and below market interest rates was a theoretical cocktail of central bank economists. Powell, Kuroda, Draghi, all of them, were just frontmen of monetary experiments. Failure on so many levels, hard to know where to start or end, least of all inflation.
I think you are worse than me when it comes to reacting to what's going on in the market.
And I am pretty bad.
Agip - how could you ever say you never want to own stocks again? Unless you are very close to retiring that is crazy. S & P returns from 1928 to 12/31/21 were just a tad under 12%. That is crazy returns. The inflation now is 8.3%. Eating up your purchasing power.
geez Sally I'm just venting. I didn't sell all my stocks. I still have 50-60% in stocks and probably always will.
the bear case is that stocks are down 20% and we haven't even started a recession yet. which is a pretty reasonable case. Hard to watch so much wealth evaporate. But I'm staying the course, albeit at the lower end of my exposure.
As an aside, I read that when you take out the 6 most expensive stocks in the SP500 the PE goes down to 12 or something like that. Two-sided knife but interesting if true.
If the Fed continues to raise rates or even simply keep rates this high, AND they increase QT, what does that mean for the market and the economy? We're already down more than 20% YTD, moreso factoring in inflation, yet the future still looks worse in my opinion if this trajectory holds... We were at 3386 before the pandemic started in 2020. Any chance all gains since then get wiped out? Will there be some kind of major rebound after we weather this storm? I've been investing and following the markets and economy since 2008, and what we're experiencing now seems very different from anything else in that time... Makes it hard to feel confident in your predictions/decisions.
no one knows the answers to your questions obviously. Anything can happen.
The good news is that the stock market tends to sniff out the good news before it is in the newspaper. The market could rally 20% on no apparent news. Which is why it is so hard to market time.
I'd also say that it ALWAYS feels different this time. Always. Our memories are very very short on these things. The fear always feels fresh and different. That's why the market falls 14% on average every year and 20% every 3-5 years. People freak.
That said...the pandemic is new and different and we really don't know what will happen. If normal patterns reassert.