just traders trading on past trends, which becomes self-reinforcing.
??
What can we expect the market reaction will be if the Fed goes up 0.75%? What about 1.00%?
Seems the announcement will come @ 2:00 PM
traders will parse every word change in the statement and trade on that. I'd expect some very harsh words from the Fed - jawboning is perhaps their most effective tool right now....and they know that if they say anything like 'we're seeing inflation moderate' the stock market will rise 10% in a month and kick inflationary spending back up. So lots of tough talk.
I said earlier this month bear market rally 3,950-4,150. That is all you are getting. New lows by next Fed meeting.
this was from july 28. Igy got the direction right (market has fallen 4% from that day) but he was way off on predicting a new low by today. We are 7% above the low.
Still, getting direction correct is 90% of a bet. I'll give this a thumbs up prediction from Igy.
I said earlier this month bear market rally 3,950-4,150. That is all you are getting. New lows by next Fed meeting.
this was from july 28. Igy got the direction right (market has fallen 4% from that day) but he was way off on predicting a new low by today. We are 7% above the low.
Still, getting direction correct is 90% of a bet. I'll give this a thumbs up prediction from Igy.
i am not so generous, I'd say it is too early to tell if the rally is over or just stalled. And his forecasted milestone/timeline of continuing lower past the previous low by this date was not even close.
He was right only insofar as the then current upswing would not be a straight shot up.
And frankly, timing is everything. He's been calling for lower markets year after year, and he called one miniscule portion of that trend correctly, but how useful is that in the overall picture?
i am not so generous, ... timing is everything. He's been calling for lower markets year after year, and he called one miniscule portion of that trend correctly, but how useful is that in the overall picture?
Remind us of your accurate predictions or forecasts?
I said earlier this month bear market rally 3,950-4,150. That is all you are getting. New lows by next Fed meeting.
this was from july 28. Igy got the direction right (market has fallen 4% from that day) but he was way off on predicting a new low by today. We are 7% above the low.
Still, getting direction correct is 90% of a bet. I'll give this a thumbs up prediction from Igy.
Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn.
What can we expect the market reaction will be if the Fed goes up 0.75%? What about 1.00%?
Seems the announcement will come @ 2:00 PM
traders will parse every word change in the statement and trade on that. I'd expect some very harsh words from the Fed - jawboning is perhaps their most effective tool right now....and they know that if they say anything like 'we're seeing inflation moderate' the stock market will rise 10% in a month and kick inflationary spending back up. So lots of tough talk.
View Term SOFR, USD LIBOR, and Treasury forward curve charts or download the data in Excel to estimate the forecasting or underwriting of monthly floating rate debt.
Remind us of your accurate predictions or forecasts?
I don't know. Do you?
Well no, I don't know whether you've made any forecasts or predictions in this thread. If you have, how well have they fared in comparison with Igy? If you have not, why not? It's easy to criticize predictions and forecasts for the future because they are very hard to make, especially for chaotic, unpredictable phenomena. I wonder whether you've done better than the guy you are criticizing, is all.
It grates on me to be defending Igy, whose politics and world view offend me to my core, but fair's fair, and here we are talking about discussion of the markets.
Racket also likes to criticize forecasts and predictions without making any of his own. But he's still young, with a lot to learn.
Well no, I don't know whether you've made any forecasts or predictions in this thread. If you have, how well have they fared in comparison with Igy? If you have not, why not? It's easy to criticize predictions and forecasts for the future because they are very hard to make, especially for chaotic, unpredictable phenomena. I wonder whether you've done better than the guy you are criticizing, is all.
It grates on me to be defending Igy, whose politics and world view offend me to my core, but fair's fair, and here we are talking about discussion of the markets.
Racket also likes to criticize forecasts and predictions without making any of his own. But he's still young, with a lot to learn.
75 basis points on the hike. Pretty much in line with expectations (some thought they would do a full percent). If there wasn't already a housing collapse, now one is inevitable.
75 basis points on the hike. Pretty much in line with expectations (some thought they would do a full percent). If there wasn't already a housing collapse, now one is inevitable.
I suspect the 0.75% and 1.00% predictions were in fact trial balloons.
Who knows.
Increased loan rates surely will not help the price of houses.
AS a house owner who may look to sell and buy in the not too distant future, lower prices my help me (looking to move from modest house to a little more upscale one).
I am interested in the market primarily as a recent retiree with time on his hands I have replaced my following of sport team with following my investments to large extent