A lot of posts on here have been reported as "factually incorrect" but we have not deleted them as we don't follow the CA HS scene and don't know what is factually incorrect. If you want to email us about something you know to be factually incorrect, please do so at letsrun@letsrun.com.
Here is my complete analysis of woodward park boy times, I can do girls another time Woodward Park is one of the best data sets in the country. It has been raced on by more runners than any other course in the country. It is also an extremely consistent course. The surface is always the same and the temperatures are rarely an issue. Every race at Woodward Park is comparable to any other race in Woodward Park. It has been tested more than any other course in the country, so being on an all-time list for woodward, is something great. It is a course that is run a lot every year, 28 invitationals in California were held there last year. All the best teams in California run the course twice a year (Clovis Invitational, State Championships). The course was used as a qualifying course for the footlocker west regionals throughout the 1980s. It was used for California state championships since 1987.
For the results of 2023 - - California is always consistently good but this year teams don’t appear as strong as 2015, 2018-2019. This year seems to be more comparable to years such as 2014 and 2017. Assuming the teams don’t improve from now to the state meet, expect only 1 California team to break into the top 10, and another to be around 12-13th.
Year - team all-time rank at woodward(team nxn placement)
- at the clovis invitational california boy individuals woodward park top 15 all-time and their other credentials
- California individuals are insane this year. 5 guys are in the 31 best all-time
rank at woodward / name / time at woodward / credentials other info 1st German Fernandez 14:24 - ran on a hurt foot at the footlocker championships, but was able to run 4:01/8:35 double at the state meet (2 hours apart). 2nd Leo Young 14:26 - ran 3:38 1500, 1st in US U20 race, 16th place at world athletics U20 national championships 3rd Colin Sahlman 14:27 - ran 8:33 3200, 3:56 mile 4th Lex Young 14:28 - ran 8:35 3200, 13:34 track 5k 5th Nico Young 14:29 - ran 7:56 3k indoors, 1st nxn by a very large margin 14:52 - wet nxn course - in an interview second place methner whom went 15:06 at nxn 15:08 to win footlocker was asked if he thought he could beat nico young on a better day, his response, "no way that kid is on another level than me." 6th Leo Daschbach 14:31 - sub 4 miler 7th Anthony Fast Horse - 14:33 - ??? 8th Marc Davis - 14:38 - olympian 9th Eric Reynolds - 14:39 - 14:35 to dominate footlocker 10th Bryan Dameworth - 14:39 - 11th Jay Marden - 14:40 - won footlocker 14:53 12th Aaron Salhman - 14:42 - won nxn 2022, 8:37c 13th Emmanuel Perez - 14:43 - ??? 14th Phillip Rocha - 14:43 - 2nd footlocker 15:07 15th Amaar Moussa - 14:43 - 4th nxn 16th Matt Strangio - 14:44 - 4th nxn 17th Evan Noonan - 14:45 - ??? Other Notable runners and their personal best at the woodward park - Blake Haney - 15:09 - 2nd at NXN, won Arcadia 3200 Estevan De La Rosa - 15:05-15:03 - 2nd at NXN, 4th NXN. Liam Anderson - 14:55 - 1st at NXN My race conversion for woodward park compared to other courses is as follows - 14:40 Woodward Park - 14:15 Huntsville -> 14:20 Mt Sac -> 13:40 Woodbridge
It was 78 degrees during the Championship Varsity race at Serra Crystal Springs Invite.
not very impressive for california runners.
I don't know man, 62 degrees with some overcast for racing is a hell of a lot better than 78 degrees with the sun beating down on you. But to each their own. Maybe the way you perform is same under either set of conditions. If so, good on you.
Trey Caldwell looked great running a 14:55 at Crystal Springs (2.95 miles) this past weekend. It was hot with unrelenting sun out there, on a very tough course. Put him on a faster course with cooler temps, I bet he'll crank a great time.
Yes, he will put a great time, but I believe his best relative performances will be on tough courses. He is more impressive on a course like Crystal Springs than Woodbridge. Last year, his best races were at Mt Sac (FootLocker qualifying) and Balboa Park (FootLocker finals). The more hills the better it seems.
>>For the results of 2023 - - California is always consistently good but this year teams don’t appear as strong as 2015, 2018-2019. This year seems to be more comparable to years such as 2014 and 2017. Assuming the teams don’t improve from now to the state meet, expect only 1 California team to break into the top 10, and another to be around 12-13th. 2023 - 15(dana hills),42(great oak),47(oakdale)<<
Yes, the top team times look weak relative to past years. To add to your point, since it always is the same course, just the recent advances in shoe technology should have made the top times faster relative to past years. While the top teams are relatively weak, the top individuals look fairly strong.
Does anyone know how much the top teams typically improve between clovis and state? For instance, in the Fast Horse interview after clovis he mentioned that they pretty much trained through it. Should we expect a team like ventura to improve dramatically? Thanks
>>For the results of 2023 - - California is always consistently good but this year teams don’t appear as strong as 2015, 2018-2019. This year seems to be more comparable to years such as 2014 and 2017. Assuming the teams don’t improve from now to the state meet, expect only 1 California team to break into the top 10, and another to be around 12-13th. 2023 - 15(dana hills),42(great oak),47(oakdale)<<
Yes, the top team times look weak relative to past years. To add to your point, since it always is the same course, just the recent advances in shoe technology should have made the top times faster relative to past years. While the top teams are relatively weak, the top individuals look fairly strong.
Another quick question. As I consider Newbury Park to have been a major historical outlier and California had 4 teams last year, am I crazy to think that this year's teams are miles ahead of last year's non-Newbury teams that acquitted themselves nicely.
Does anyone know how much the top teams typically improve between clovis and state? For instance, in the Fast Horse interview after clovis he mentioned that they pretty much trained through it. Should we expect a team like ventura to improve dramatically? Thanks
Historically almost all top california teams improve from clovis to state, it is rare for a teams top team time to not come from the state meet. Similar to how Utah teams improve from Timpangos to State.
>>For the results of 2023 - - California is always consistently good but this year teams don’t appear as strong as 2015, 2018-2019. This year seems to be more comparable to years such as 2014 and 2017. Assuming the teams don’t improve from now to the state meet, expect only 1 California team to break into the top 10, and another to be around 12-13th. 2023 - 15(dana hills),42(great oak),47(oakdale)<<
Yes, the top team times look weak relative to past years. To add to your point, since it always is the same course, just the recent advances in shoe technology should have made the top times faster relative to past years. While the top teams are relatively weak, the top individuals look fairly strong.
Another quick question. As I consider Newbury Park to have been a major historical outlier and California had 4 teams last year, am I crazy to think that this year's teams are miles ahead of last year's non-Newbury teams that acquitted themselves nicely.
Yes California's 2023 teams are slightly better than 2022 non newbury park teams. However, those teams did well at the national level. It is not uncommon for California to butcher it at nationals (especially when conditions suck, or they add haystacks and lots of mud pre 2015). Also 2014, 37th all-time brea olinda that placed 20th sent their top runner to footlocker west regionals.
>>For the results of 2023 - - California is always consistently good but this year teams don’t appear as strong as 2015, 2018-2019. This year seems to be more comparable to years such as 2014 and 2017. Assuming the teams don’t improve from now to the state meet, expect only 1 California team to break into the top 10, and another to be around 12-13th. 2023 - 15(dana hills),42(great oak),47(oakdale)<<
Yes, the top team times look weak relative to past years. To add to your point, since it always is the same course, just the recent advances in shoe technology should have made the top times faster relative to past years. While the top teams are relatively weak, the top individuals look fairly strong.
Another quick question. As I consider Newbury Park to have been a major historical outlier and California had 4 teams last year, am I crazy to think that this year's teams are miles ahead of last year's non-Newbury teams that acquitted themselves nicely.
Last year at this time, two eventual qualifiers Great Oak where both struggling with illness and injury, and ran poorly at Clovis, as they both did the first half of the year. This year's top 4 performed better, but the rest of the country is much stronger this year. Getting even 1 at large bid is going to require 3 teams to have a really good day at the state championship. That happened last year, so maybe it happens again.
Another quick question. As I consider Newbury Park to have been a major historical outlier and California had 4 teams last year, am I crazy to think that this year's teams are miles ahead of last year's non-Newbury teams that acquitted themselves nicely.
Last year at this time, two eventual qualifiers Great Oak where both struggling with illness and injury, and ran poorly at Clovis, as they both did the first half of the year. This year's top 4 performed better, but the rest of the country is much stronger this year. Getting even 1 at large bid is going to require 3 teams to have a really good day at the state championship. That happened last year, so maybe it happens again.
...two eventual qualifiers Great Oak and Ventura...
Last year at this time, two eventual qualifiers Great Oak where both struggling with illness and injury, and ran poorly at Clovis, as they both did the first half of the year. This year's top 4 performed better, but the rest of the country is much stronger this year. Getting even 1 at large bid is going to require 3 teams to have a really good day at the state championship. That happened last year, so maybe it happens again.
...two eventual qualifiers Great Oak and Ventura...
Good catch, I forgot to copy Jesuit over to my main list from the list Clovis. Jesuit 161.6
This is the first race for them that has been speed rated, which makes it a little more impressive. Many of the other teams also ran Woodbridge, which about half the best times come from.
Two more I found looking through the Clovis results. Both teams are 6 returners deep with 3 sophs.
Yes, it is too early for some, but for those curious about how California teams look for next year compared to other top teams, I generated a list. I know teams can emerge, but they don't come from nowhere, they would already be showing some kind of base. Here is my best attempt at collecting various data on teams for races that Tully has speed rated.
California teams (All the teams I could find with an average over 150, but I could have missed some) Great Oak (SS) 170.2 Martin Luther King 168.6 Buchanan 168.2 JSerra 165.8 Arnold O. Beckman (SS) 164.8 Mira Costa (SS) 162.2 Glendora 162.0 Matilda Torress 160.4 Tesoro 160.0 Oaks Christian (SS) 160.0 Bellarmine College Prep (CC) 159.8 Hart 158.8 Woodbridge 158.6 Oak Park 157.4 Newbury Park (SS) 155.8 West Ranch 153.8 Santiago Corona (SS) 153.8 Dana Hills (SS) 153.0 Dougherty Valley 153.0 Trabuco Hills (SS) 152.4 Vacaville 151.4 Clovis East 151.2 Ayala 150.4
Not surprising that Great Oak is #1 for next year’s teams although they have 4 seniors now. They will actually have 3 scorers back. They will just need 2 more but I’m sure they will develop some more guys during track.
I wonder how this year’s Buchanan underclassmen success will translate to next year. I saw some posts that some Buchanan varsity girls are running slower than last year. Not sure if that will apply for the boys
Yes, it is too early for some, but for those curious about how California teams look for next year compared to other top teams, I generated a list. I know teams can emerge, but they don't come from nowhere, they would already be showing some kind of base. Here is my best attempt at collecting various data on teams for races that Tully has speed rated. Note for non-Cal teams, I am pretty certain I have missed a few really good teams, but my aim wasn't to get every team, just to get some of the better examples. Non-Cal teams *average speed ratings for returning runners*. There is big group of teams between 165-170 that I am not going to try and produce. It's a big country. Niwot 177.0 Southlake Carrol 176.4 Herriman 175.4 Belen Jesuit Preparatory School 175.2 Austin Vandegrift 172.4 Jesuit OR 171.8 Coeur d'Alene 170.8 Ridgefield 168.8 Rocky Mountain 168.4 California teams (All the teams I could find with an average over 150, but I could have missed some) Great Oak (SS) 170.2 Martin Luther King 168.6 Buchanan 168.2 JSerra 165.8 Arnold O. Beckman (SS) 164.8 Mira Costa (SS) 162.2 Glendora 162.0 Matilda Torress 160.4 Tesoro 160.0 Oaks Christian (SS) 160.0 Bellarmine College Prep (CC) 159.8 Hart 158.8 Woodbridge 158.6 Oak Park 157.4 Newbury Park (SS) 155.8 West Ranch 153.8 Santiago Corona (SS) 153.8 Dana Hills (SS) 153.0 Dougherty Valley 153.0 Trabuco Hills (SS) 152.4 Vacaville 151.4 Clovis East 151.2 Ayala 150.4
are there only 6 teams nationwide ahead of our number 1? if so its not too bad
Yes, it is too early for some, but for those curious about how California teams look for next year compared to other top teams, I generated a list. I know teams can emerge, but they don't come from nowhere, they would already be showing some kind of base. Here is my best attempt at collecting various data on teams for races that Tully has speed rated. Note for non-Cal teams, I am pretty certain I have missed a few really good teams, but my aim wasn't to get every team, just to get some of the better examples. Non-Cal teams *average speed ratings for returning runners*. There is big group of teams between 165-170 that I am not going to try and produce. It's a big country. Niwot 177.0 Southlake Carrol 176.4 Herriman 175.4 Belen Jesuit Preparatory School 175.2 Austin Vandegrift 172.4 Jesuit OR 171.8 Coeur d'Alene 170.8 Ridgefield 168.8 Rocky Mountain 168.4 California teams (All the teams I could find with an average over 150, but I could have missed some) Great Oak (SS) 170.2 Martin Luther King 168.6 Buchanan 168.2 JSerra 165.8 Arnold O. Beckman (SS) 164.8 Mira Costa (SS) 162.2 Glendora 162.0 Matilda Torress 160.4 Tesoro 160.0 Oaks Christian (SS) 160.0 Bellarmine College Prep (CC) 159.8 Hart 158.8 Woodbridge 158.6 Oak Park 157.4 Newbury Park (SS) 155.8 West Ranch 153.8 Santiago Corona (SS) 153.8 Dana Hills (SS) 153.0 Dougherty Valley 153.0 Trabuco Hills (SS) 152.4 Vacaville 151.4 Clovis East 151.2 Ayala 150.4
are there only 6 teams nationwide ahead of our number 1? if so its not too bad
considering niwot and herriman are going to be insanely good next year, I am glad we are only 5-7 points away from them
are there only 6 teams nationwide ahead of our number 1? if so its not too bad
considering niwot and herriman are going to be insanely good next year, I am glad we are only 5-7 points away from them
Consider that 5 points is 15 seconds per runner, which at Clovis is about 20 points per runner for the mid-top pack. So that's 100 points total.
I would assume there is more teams, in the 170s but I didn't check much on the eastern half of the US. Also, some teams haven't had a big race speed rated yet. It just occurred to me I didn't look at any results from Jesuit LA, maybe they have a good returning team or not, but goes to show the level of teams I haven't checked yet.
considering niwot and herriman are going to be insanely good next year, I am glad we are only 5-7 points away from them
Consider that 5 points is 15 seconds per runner, which at Clovis is about 20 points per runner for the mid-top pack. So that's 100 points total.
I would assume there is more teams, in the 170s but I didn't check much on the eastern half of the US. Also, some teams haven't had a big race speed rated yet. It just occurred to me I didn't look at any results from Jesuit LA, maybe they have a good returning team or not, but goes to show the level of teams I haven't checked yet.
Jesuit LA returns their top 3 for next year. They will need to find a 4th and 5th though. People that will be candidates for those positions are mainly current freshmen and sophomores. many people take big jumps from freshman to sophomore year and sophomore to junior year
