^At the high point our place market value was about triple from purchase price in 2013. I would say about double now; so we have dropped by a third. In today’s mail received a realtors flyer with some listings well above what I think would sell in the current market. My preferred plan is to die in my place, so none of this market moves matters, except for my heirs.
Just read an Axios Markets article on BOise housing market. In a little over two years, the average listing price just about doubled! So, it is now giving some of that back and coming back to a more customary level. Honestly, did anyone think that a doubling of the cost of a house was going to continue, and was not likely to retract somewhat?
Like Agip said, Boise is - or was - a particularly hot market.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2022 (with 100% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 75% of S&P 500 company reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of companies reported a positive revenue surprise.
Earnie, you forgot to mention this in your always slanted bullish posts (from the same Factset report):
“Through Document Search, FactSet searched for the term “recession” in the conference call transcripts of all the S&P 500 companies that conducted earnings conference calls from June 15 through September 8.
Of these companies, 240 cited the term “recession” during their earnings calls for the second quarter, which is well above the 5-year average of 52. In fact, this is the highest number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on earnings calls going back to at least 2010 (using current index constituents going back in time). The previous record (since 2010) was 212, which occurred in Q1 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
not this year - Igy has been nearly dead-on this year on ups and downs.
My thoughts:
Since 2015 I have been more often wrong as traditional methods of stock valuation have been masked by Fed easy money and Government stimulus. I continue to believe that these monetary experiments and unhinged spending have severe economic consequences. True growth is not stock buybacks, record margins, and non-GAAP financial gimmicks. Even as good a company that Apple is, the growth in the stock price is much more a function of investors paying more for a unit of earnings. The narrative of this company as an engine of innovation is more of a myth than reality.
My view is the current bear market bounce will peak a couple of percent below the pre-Jackson Hole high with the next decline breaking 3,850. If that transpires, a break could set up the market to test the annual lows.
not this year - Igy has been nearly dead-on this year on ups and downs.
My thoughts:
Since 2015 I have been more often wrong as traditional methods of stock valuation have been masked by Fed easy money and Government stimulus. I continue to believe that these monetary experiments and unhinged spending have severe economic consequences. True growth is not stock buybacks, record margins, and non-GAAP financial gimmicks. Even as good a company that Apple is, the growth in the stock price is much more a function of investors paying more for a unit of earnings. The narrative of this company as an engine of innovation is more of a myth than reality.
My view is the current bear market bounce will peak a couple of percent below the pre-Jackson Hole high with the next decline breaking 3,850. If that transpires, a break could set up the market to test the annual lows.
Since 2015 I have been more often wrong as traditional methods of stock valuation have been masked by Fed easy money and Government stimulus. I continue to believe that these monetary experiments and unhinged spending have severe economic consequences. True growth is not stock buybacks, record margins, and non-GAAP financial gimmicks. Even as good a company that Apple is, the growth in the stock price is much more a function of investors paying more for a unit of earnings. The narrative of this company as an engine of innovation is more of a myth than reality.
My view is the current bear market bounce will peak a couple of percent below the pre-Jackson Hole high with the next decline breaking 3,850. If that transpires, a break could set up the market to test the annual lows.
What currents do you view as the cause of that?
Unsure of the point direction of the question. If investors believe there is no consequence to easy money and seemingly pointless spending, then the markets will trend higher unless inflation is the constraint. In regards to the day’s old rally, I see it nothing more than a bear market rally of lower highs, and lower lows, with the bear market eventually bottoming somewhere below the 2020 pandemic low of 2,200 and 2011 US debt downgrade low of 1,200.
We're still stuck in the middle... one month up, one month down.
88 days since the low.
up 13% from that low
but
down 15% from the all-time high.
Big CPI print at 8:30 today....consensus is for another month of very little inflation on a m/m basis but still 8%+ on a y/y basis. I think October is when we will start lapping big jumps in the 2021 CPI and the Y/Y number will start falling.