Down goes the Dow

Meanwhile strong technical rejection at resistance of ~4,325.

It wasn’t me. It was some math guy who called your bluff and you folded.

Seems like I've been seeing a wave of high profile people calling this a bear market rally of sorts and that things are going to get much worse moving forward. Lots of articles and high profile people saying it. Still think it's impossible to say for sure, but at the same time I don't feel comfortable putting any money into the market right now and won't be. If we fall down below 3800 I will, but there is a ton of uncertainty and likely looming pain for the US and World economies over the next 6+ months. Seems like a good time to keep your cash as cash and play wait and see for the time being.

Finally. Have you been shorting more?

Case in point. Can't read it since I don't subscribe. Anyone care to share what it says beyond the headline?

cnbc.com

A market signal with a perfect track record says the bottom is not in, Bank of America claims

https://www.facebook.com/CNBC

The Rule of 20 has a perfect record in calling market bottoms and has not yet safely flashed, BofA says.

Link:www.cnbc.com/2022/08/17/this-market-si...

look, no one can predict the moves of the market.

but always, always, always, the people who think they are smart are the bearish ones. Being pessimistic makes you feel and appear to be knowing, smart and wise. And no one really cares if you are wrong.

But flip it around and you get the opposite...those who are optimistic always sound childish and foolishly cheerful. Not thinking it through.

Plus you get the media publishing the bearish stories because those stories get more clicks than 'eh things will probably turn out ok' stories.

here's the text. Seems to me this is a textbook case of the post-pandemic period not being subject to normal historical patterns. Now is just too weird.

//

Stocks still have room to fall, and investors shouldn't discount the odds of a hard landing yet, Bank of America says.
Only 30% of the firm's bull-market indicators have been triggered, versus over 80% in previous market bottoms.
Plus, one signal with a perfect track record has yet to signal a bottom, according to BofA.
It's too early to call a market bottom yet and technical indicators are signaling stocks have more room to fall – including one sign post that has a perfect track record, according to Bank of America.
Analysts highlighted in a Wednesday note to clients that the so-called Rule of 20 dictates that the sum of year-over-year CPI growth and trailing P/E has always been below 20 when the market bottomed. But right now, it's sitting at 28.5, with P/E at 20 and the latest CPI showing an 8.5% gain.
Other indicators also suggest the bottom isn't in yet.
"Only 30% of our bull market signposts (things that happen before a market bottom) have been triggered vs. 80%+ in prior market bottoms, suggesting that another pullback is likely," BofA analysts wrote.
BofA Global Research
Those additional indicators that have usually occurred before a market bottom include Fed rate cuts, rising unemployment, the Sell Side Indicator flashing a buy signal, and a steepening yield curve, among others.
But the Rule of 20, in particular, is the only data point from BofA's list that has flashed at every market bottom since September 1974.
"Outside of inflation falling to 0%, or the S&P 500 falling to 2500, an earnings surprise of 50% would be required to satisfy the Rule of 20, while consensus is forecasting an aggressive and we think unachievable 8% growth rate in 2023 already," analysts wrote.
Separately, the combination of lower rates and equity risk premium since June suggest that markets are raising expectations for a soft landing, according to the note.
Yet the bank's analysts warned that a Fed-induced hard landing – when rising rates tip the economy into a recession – shouldn't be counted out prematurely.
Read the original article on Business Insider

No specifics then or now.

Nibbling, then selling, adding again. Treading water but keeping exposed to varying degrees. EMD and FAX were helping, now a drag as well.

Looks like the air has run out of this bear market rally. It's a strange time for stocks as Biden spends on the front end and the Treasury puts fires out on the back end with rate hikes. The rate hikes will weigh heavy on the stock market for a while until all of the government spending has made its way through the system and they can revert back to quantitative easing. My guess with the large rate hikes they have been instituting, they are trying to time the easing to give themselves positive economic news heading into major elections (in a desperate attempt to distract from their fiscal mismanagement).

Unfortunately the odds of a major financial blow up are baked in no matter who is in charge. Payoffs to donors and special interests only insures the final outcome is worse. Fed playing their shuffling games only pushes out the length of downturn, and nothing to boost the credibility of their experiments in money printing.

Unemployment is still historically low with jobs being added each month but people out there are really expecting 2008 style carnage

Strong Illuminati vibes in this post.

Fiscal policy is set by Congress. Monetary policy is set by the Federal Reserve which, despite what the boomer Facebook memes would have you believe, has done a pretty good job of staying independent lately.

Congress couldn't conspire with a fvcking shoelace at this point anyways, even if they wanted to do something

False. You divert to hide your ignorance.

Talk about “no specifics”.

This bear market rally is likely dead with a break below ~4,175.