Down goes the Dow

That is baby steps behind. You want to know what behind is? $10,000 invested in HSGFX in 2001 is worth $10,600. In the S & P? $50,000.

“Despite the extremes in historically reliable valuation measures, we can be certain of one thing: investors don’t care. They never do at market extremes. If they did, the financial markets could never reach extremes like 1929, 2000, and today in the first place.
The typical objections involve a wide range of verbal rhapsodies involving technology, innovation, structural change, productivity, entrepreneurship, and highly profitable monopolies – all that can be broadly summed up by the phrase “new era.”

It’s as if investors imagine that today is the first time the economy has ever encountered technology, innovation, structural change, productivity, entrepreneurship, and highly profitable (yet ultimately temporary) monopolies.

The economic and financial history that we take for granted is replete with bubbles, collapses, inflation, deflation, expansion, recession, depression, world wars, and countless innovations that had profound economic impact – automobiles, commercial aviation, automation, television, pharmaceuticals, electronics, computers, biotechnology – not to mention Otto Frederick Rohwedder’s 1928 introduction of sliced bread. But hey, the iPhone 14 is coming out.”

John Hussman, Market Commentary August 2022

It's not all that meaningful when extraordinarily rich people sell stock. . It's a different game when you have enough money. You can sit out when you want to and sleep better. he doesn't need any more money.

Whereas the rest of us still need money, so we don't have the luxury of sitting on the sidelines. To go to cash would be a much riskier proposition for normal people than for someone who is already very rich.

This depends on one's stage of life, investment time horizon and risk tolerance. We went to ~ 50% cash in our investment accounts over a year ago, have stood pat through the market gyrations since then, and remain satisfied with that decision, given that we will start spending some of those invested savings over the next few years as we transition into retirement.

We are NOT very rich, and we are normal people.

But the article notes that he is doing it with the funds of the investment company he manages, Scion Asset Management, LLC. Not his private investments necessarily. So he may be taking a risky move with people's money who will very much need the money for retirement,

And here is the revealing part, at least for me. Money under management: $165 mil.

That is not very much. By comparison, all of Scions funds he manages are less than half of our dim-witted, perennial loser, John Hussman's Strategic Growth Fund. All of Scions funds put together are less than half of a single fund of Hussman's !

So, Burry has some notoriety based on a good call over ten years ago, but these are hardly the kind of assets that would impact the markets, even slightly. And his track record since then has been abysmal.

A one-trick pony desperately in search of a second act? You decide. But interesting that even after a morning dip, indices tracking positive (at the moment) for yet another day....

Can someone explain to me why Hussman get's mentioned on here over and over and over? His track record is abysmal. He's a total nobody and a failure. Literally has zero relevance. His continual mention on here as if he's some sort of guru is bizarre.

Perhaps it may be that you only have a cursory knowledge of the subject, and your experience over the last decade colors a novice point of view.

I've done substantially better than you and Hussman. Results speak for themselves.

One thing I've learned in my "almost long" life so far is that you almost never know anything about someone else's financial situation...

When someone consistently greatly underperforms the market for years and years, it's easy to say they're doing sub-par. Some of the people here wouldn't even make any money in a crash because they'd be waiting for the market to drop 50+ percent instead of capitalizing on a 30% drop. I appreciate the diversity of views here, it keeps us all honest, but it would be a lie to say everyone here is rational or reasonable. There are people here as delusional as religious fanatics, which is unfortunate.

You've looked at Igy's books, have you? I think you are conflating Hussman's fund and Igy's personal situation.

Not that I mean to defend Igy, his political views are beyond vile to me, but you are making assumptions about his financial situation that you can't really support, which is not the way to have a productive discussion.

To my friend “the idiot“

Thanks, and my true political views are likely less vile than you imagine.

To others,

In regards to John Hussman, he is a most respected and interesting financial writer. Prolific and shares his views without financial strings. The large investment firms have two research arms, one to the retail investor, and one to institutions. Most of what “we” get is general, less thoughtful, generic market commentary. Always sales driven, similar to the real estate market commentary. “There is never a time not to buy.”

Anyhow, my thoughts of the moment.

Interesting, the S&P 500 bounced off the 200 day moving average and resistance at about 4,325.

Today, Bank of American said to reduce longs about 4,328. Similar to my thoughts, as this market is increasingly overbought, especially considering all the headwinds.

Thx. Glad to know that the misguided drivel we have been fed from that perennial loser is actually the second tier drivel, at that.

Could we perhaps qualify that in future posts of his? Something to the effect of institutional version could be branded as the loser version and the retail version could be branded as the even-bigger-loser version?

saw that and went looking for news but couldn't find anything driving it. Bet it's day traders playing recent range bound trading.

Perhaps you are too unsophisticated and to absorb Hussman. Or, brought up under an investment experience of ten years of easy money and government handouts. The skin of a bloated toad is hard to pierce, but when it does…..what a mess. 😷

My best guess is institutions have sell orders that trigger at the level. Risk management, not too different than the same that have forced covering of shorts, or buying an index once we crossed ~3,950.

Technicals, whether it is Fibonacci levels or moving averages are a history of market behavior. None of it to be used dogmatically in my view. I did add some short position at ~4,315.

Our resident troll loves the guy.