Hahaha EMD and FAX have a 20 year return of -35% and -25% respectively.
dude be sure you have correct information. I'm pretty sure you are spreading misinformation, which on an investment thread, no one should want.
Per Morningstar, EMD's record since 2003 is +5.1% per year. Not bad at all for a bond fund.
I suspect you are unaware that the fund pays a huge dividend - you are probably going on just NAV and not counting dividends. Which is foolish to do.
And anyway, Igy has a profit on EMD, I believe. It's all in when you buy things and when you sell them. Igy's had a very hot hand all year. He even predicted this move up to 4200 on the SP500.
Thanks agip. I am up ~11% of FAX and ~12% on EMD. I do expect to lose those gains in any market reversal. According to Morningstar as of 8/11 EMD outperformed QQQ 13.11% to 12.12%, and outperformed SPY over that period by ~3%. This is the latest data I could find and does not include today’s big rally.
My motive for investing in HSGFX was that it was expressing a negative view on market valuations without being net short. And my performance is better than being net short. I would assume your experience is that Hussman performed better than your market short fund. Is that your experience?
Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2022 (with 87% S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 75% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
This shows you how catastrophic sentiment was a few months ago. During 2Q earnings season stocks had a record high resilience to bad news, because all the weak hands had sold already and it would take an utter disaster to knock down a stock. And any good news was a giant whoosh upwards.
Always so obvious in retrospect.
59 days since the low.
FactSet @FactSet $SPX companies are not seeing an (average) price decrease in reaction to negative EPS surprises for the first time in more than 10 years.
FactSet @FactSet $SPX companies are seeing the largest (average) price increases in reaction to positive EPS surprises since Q3 2019
How about that bear market rally, my fellow lemmings?! Another day in the green. Even sour news from China can't put this bad boy down.
Did a little more nibbling today.
I guess quiet days are good nowadays as the hope of diminishing fears of inflation and recession bring back the buyers.
This is a bear market rally. Be patient, grasshopper, the end is not in sight. This might be the eye of the hurricane offering a temporary reprieve. Enjoy you short term gains, but buckle down for an extended rough road. Because of inflation, if you are level with where you were a year ago, you are 10% poorer. If you are below, then you are much poorer. I'm 15% ahead of where I was a year ago, and I still feel like I am not keeping up. The manufacturing data and the housing data are going to weigh on this market for a while.
How about that bear market rally, my fellow lemmings?! Another day in the green. Even sour news from China can't put this bad boy down.
Did a little more nibbling today.
I guess quiet days are good nowadays as the hope of diminishing fears of inflation and recession bring back the buyers.
This is a bear market rally. Be patient, grasshopper, the end is not in sight. This might be the eye of the hurricane offering a temporary reprieve. Enjoy you short term gains, but buckle down for an extended rough road. Because of inflation, if you are level with where you were a year ago, you are 10% poorer. If you are below, then you are much poorer. I'm 15% ahead of where I was a year ago, and I still feel like I am not keeping up. The manufacturing data and the housing data are going to weigh on this market for a while.
My biggest non bond and cd holding are bets against the S+P 500 and the NASDAQ.
Only got in them a while ago and haave taken a bit of a bath but I am hanging on to them
How much weight do we put on this? Burry sold basically everything. Clearly he's expecting an extreme crash from here and is putting his money where his mouth is. Pretty interesting...
How much weight do we put on this? Burry sold basically everything. Clearly he's expecting an extreme crash from here and is putting his money where his mouth is. Pretty interesting...
How much weight do we put on this? Burry sold basically everything. Clearly he's expecting an extreme crash from here and is putting his money where his mouth is. Pretty interesting...
“That leaves us with a perspective that may seem odd. We are willing to take strong stances, both defensive and aggressive, with regard to market risk. Yet except when the market is strenuously overbought in a negative Climate, or deeply oversold in a positive one, we rarely have any forecast at all about the market outlook even a few days or weeks out. Our current defensiveness (fully hedged) is not a forecast of market action, but an identification of the prevailing Climate at this moment. To ask “Where do you think the market is going?” is to invite frustration. It’s like asking Columbus whether he thinks the trees at the edge of the earth are maples or pines. We just don’t look at the world that way. Now, my long-term view is a different story, because ultimately, the long-term return on stocks is tightly linked to valuations. What is relevant, from our discipline, is that the current Climate is the most negative one we identify. That might change next week, or it might not change for a year. There is no need to forecast when the next shift will occur. For now, we remain strongly defensive.” – John P. Hussman, March 24, 2002 As it happened, even though stocks had been in a bear market for nearly two years, the S&P 500 would lose another third of its value by October 2002, while the Nasdaq 100 would lose another 45%.