Hausmann knows quite a bit about structural change and how countries add value in the global supply chain. He's done some great work with his Atlas of Economic complexity. But I wouldn't say he was an expert on short-term forecasts. So buyer beware. In any case, I've heard that many Hausman/Hussman are similar, so I'd be buyer beware when waiting for forecasts on both fronts.
Dumped close to everything I had into the market when we were down at and below 3800. Felt like even though it could go lower, the probability of it being up substantially in 18 months time was very high. Looking like that was a good decision at the moment. Still think there's a possibility for things to get bad and the market to see new annual lows, but it's also very possible we end the year around where we started, which would actually be a pretty big win all things considered.
The Fed will do what they have done in the past, ease into a severe recession. Fed money printing and government stimulus (amazingly continues with chips and “inflation reduction”) likely extends this downturn. So I think getting the timing will be very difficult, add to that the reality that this money can never be paid back.
a severe recession when we just added 500k jobs in 6 months, corporate profits are strong and inflation just went to zero m/m?
Up to 66% stocks overall and more than that in my trading portfolio. Which is pretty much as aggressive as I ever get these days, as I get old.
I'm only down 5% over a year....that's not too bad after all we've seen. My value funds have really done well and carried a lot of weight.
I'm 97.5 % stock overall in the actively managed portfolios, which is lower than I was last year, And I'm down only 7.5% from this time a year ago. Which doesn't sound too bad.
The scarier figure is to look at the percent down ytd.
The Fed will do what they have done in the past, ease into a severe recession. Fed money printing and government stimulus (amazingly continues with chips and “inflation reduction”) likely extends this downturn. So I think getting the timing will be very difficult, add to that the reality that this money can never be paid back.
Dear Mr Ghost. I agree, governments never pay their debt back. It's clearly unsustainable and immoral. Like, they borrow at 3% p.a. and government revenue growths at like 5% p.a historically. Like, they'll never pay it back, am I right? And there's that whole world as a reserve currency thing. Surely that can't be good for paying back debt. It's not like the rest of the world needs US Treasuries and US liquidity for settling international transactions, if you know what I mean. So I agree. Debt - never paid back.
My comment was intended to raise the confidence question of funding liabilities as a function of interest rates. Hard for me to imagine this gets easier over this cycle.
Up to 66% stocks overall and more than that in my trading portfolio. Which is pretty much as aggressive as I ever get these days, as I get old.
I'm only down 5% over a year....that's not too bad after all we've seen. My value funds have really done well and carried a lot of weight.
I'm 97.5 % stock overall in the actively managed portfolios, which is lower than I was last year, And I'm down only 7.5% from this time a year ago. Which doesn't sound too bad.
The scarier figure is to look at the percent down ytd.
Let's not (look at ytd loss).
Why would you EVER have 97.5% in actively managed funds?
Sally, perhaps it would be a bit clearer to say that in our brokerage accounts, we are 97.5% invested in the markets (stocks and ETFs) and 2.5% cash, for the time being.
Paced mainly by a -7.8% decline in airline fares, driven by lower energy costs, a -0.4% decline in used vehicle prices, driven by surging repossessions, and a -2.4% decline in the price of men's underwear, driven by a bear market rally in stock prices. https://t.co/TuniSD1nJG
My comment was intended to raise the confidence question of funding liabilities as a function of interest rates. Hard for me to imagine this gets easier over this cycle.
zero percent inflation from June to July sounds pretty good to me.
Markets like it - up 1.7% in the preopen to new cyclical highs.
54 days since the low
MARKETWATCHGrocery prices in July had largest price increase since 1979 — with one food staple rising by 38% on the year Provided by Dow Jones Aug 10, 2022 1:03 PM EDT By Zoe Han Supply-chain disruptions continued to send food prices higher in July The rise in the cost of living cooled in July, but not for grocery prices. The price of food at home rose 1.3% from June to July, marking a 13.1% increase compared to last year. It was the largest price increase for groceries since 1979, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The price of consumer goods and services was steady in July from the previous month, as the Labor Department said Wednesday. In July, the inflation rate compared to a year ago was 8.5%, lower than 9.1% in June, a 41-year record, helped by lower prices in energy. Food, however, rose by 1.1% on the month and 10.9% this year. It was the seventh consecutive month where the price rose by 0.9% and above. Dining out rose by 0.7% in July on the month and 7.6% compared to last year.