I always viewed him as a carnival barker. I would assume he has enough business savvy to believe this economy is rolling over, likely not to resume another peak for years, perhaps a decade. He has plenty of Tesla shares. His other projects are less liquid and more vulnerable. Why not?
i never really gave a crap about him, but the company and it's innovations is what i cared about. Yeah, i know, they are inseparable, but I try to take a longer term view of the company, their innovations, and where they might be headed. His antics, not so much.
The consumer price index, or CPI, rose 8.5% year-over-year in July, a marked slowdown from 9.1% in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose 1.3% in July, remaining unchanged from the rise seen in June, according to the bureau. While food and shelter costs increased over the last month,
Hardly seems to be good news. CPI up 1.3% in the month of July! One month!
9.1% from June 2021 to June 2022 down to 8.5% July 2021 to July 2022! This is really good news?
Hey bras. I'm looking to get into crypto. Any suggestions? Need to get my money out of this unbacked fiat know as the USD. You know that they can just print this stuff? Crazy, right? It's like, where be the gold pile, cause otherwise how do I know it's safe and has value? M.A.G.A - Make America Gold Again should be the mantra for us GOP'ers, am I right?
Real wages continue to disappoint, Nvidia and Micron show rapidly falling demand, S&P 500 EPS will continue to drop, with subsequent multiple contraction.
This is true, but the 2 year ARIMA support for those shocks is at 75%, so I'm not so sure. I've delta hedged my portfolio with a bunch of 3 yr fixed LIBRO+2% CDS to diversity away some of the Vol that's bound to come. What's your view on the 5yr forward yield curve? More or an inflations expectation story, or an overreaction to fed policy forward guidance?
The Fed will do what they have done in the past, ease into a severe recession. Fed money printing and government stimulus (amazingly continues with chips and “inflation reduction”) likely extends this downturn. So I think getting the timing will be very difficult, add to that the reality that this money can never be paid back.
This is true, but the 2 year ARIMA support for those shocks is at 75%, so I'm not so sure. I've delta hedged my portfolio with a bunch of 3 yr fixed LIBRO+2% CDS to diversity away some of the Vol that's bound to come. What's your view on the 5yr forward yield curve? More or an inflations expectation story, or an overreaction to fed policy forward guidance?
The Fed will do what they have done in the past, ease into a severe recession. Fed money printing and government stimulus (amazingly continues with chips and “inflation reduction”) likely extends this downturn. So I think getting the timing will be very difficult, add to that the reality that this money can never be paid back.
a severe recession when we just added 500k jobs in 6 months, corporate profits are strong and inflation just went to zero m/m?
The Fed will do what they have done in the past, ease into a severe recession. Fed money printing and government stimulus (amazingly continues with chips and “inflation reduction”) likely extends this downturn. So I think getting the timing will be very difficult, add to that the reality that this money can never be paid back.
a severe recession when we just added 500k jobs in 6 months, corporate profits are strong and inflation just went to zero m/m?
Not sure that computes.
I don’t think your optimism is anything close to reality. Job loses will start soon enough.
This is true, but the 2 year ARIMA support for those shocks is at 75%, so I'm not so sure. I've delta hedged my portfolio with a bunch of 3 yr fixed LIBRO+2% CDS to diversity away some of the Vol that's bound to come. What's your view on the 5yr forward yield curve? More or an inflations expectation story, or an overreaction to fed policy forward guidance?
The Fed will do what they have done in the past, ease into a severe recession. Fed money printing and government stimulus (amazingly continues with chips and “inflation reduction”) likely extends this downturn. So I think getting the timing will be very difficult, add to that the reality that this money can never be paid back.
Dear Mr Ghost. I agree, governments never pay their debt back. It's clearly unsustainable and immoral. Like, they borrow at 3% p.a. and government revenue growths at like 5% p.a historically. Like, they'll never pay it back, am I right? And there's that whole world as a reserve currency thing. Surely that can't be good for paying back debt. It's not like the rest of the world needs US Treasuries and US liquidity for settling international transactions, if you know what I mean. So I agree. Debt - never paid back.
Ricardo Hausmann (born 1956) is the former Director of the Center for International Development currently leading the Center for International Development’s Growth Lab and is a Professor of the Practice of Economic Developmen...