you can lead a troll to truth but you can't make him learn anything
Calling for the Irony guy.
carmine for pete's sake it's perfectly obvious to anyone who can read that there is an official definition of recession. And it's not 'two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.' This has been demonstrated to you by several posters.
You have chosen not to believe an obvious truth and instead go toward the darkness. I know not why because I am not a troll.
That said, informally, we use the two quarter rule. But that's all it is...informal talk.
carmine for pete's sake it's perfectly obvious to anyone who can read that there is an official definition of recession. And it's not 'two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.' This has been demonstrated to you by several posters.
You have chosen not to believe an obvious truth and instead go toward the darkness. I know not why because I am not a troll.
That said, informally, we use the two quarter rule. But that's all it is...informal talk.
Look up the defintion of recession in the Oxford Dictionary.
re·ces·sion /rəˈseSH(ə)n/ noun 1.a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters:
It's all word play anyway.
Market down 19.9% is a "correction" down 20.0% is a "bear market.
All meaningless.
Except this exposes that the establishment changes the meaning of words to push their narrative (vaccine for example; pandemic, essential)
carmine for pete's sake it's perfectly obvious to anyone who can read that there is an official definition of recession. And it's not 'two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.' This has been demonstrated to you by several posters.
You have chosen not to believe an obvious truth and instead go toward the darkness. I know not why because I am not a troll.
That said, informally, we use the two quarter rule. But that's all it is...informal talk.
Look up the defintion of recession in the Oxford Dictionary.
re·ces·sion /rəˈseSH(ə)n/ noun 1.a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters:
It's all word play anyway.
Market down 19.9% is a "correction" down 20.0% is a "bear market.
All meaningless.
Except this exposes that the establishment changes the meaning of words to push their narrative (vaccine for example; pandemic, essential)
and of course Gente showed you that industrial activity is in fact growing. So by your own definition we are NOT in a recession. But you still say we are. Which is it?
But agreed a lot of this is just words and definitions.
Look up the defintion of recession in the Oxford Dictionary.
re·ces·sion /rəˈseSH(ə)n/ noun 1.a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters:
It's all word play anyway.
Market down 19.9% is a "correction" down 20.0% is a "bear market.
All meaningless.
Except this exposes that the establishment changes the meaning of words to push their narrative (vaccine for example; pandemic, essential)
and of course Gente showed you that industrial activity is in fact growing. So by your own definition we are NOT in a recession. But you still say we are. Which is it?
But agreed a lot of this is just words and definitions.
re·ces·sion /rəˈseSH(ə)n/ noun 1.a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters:
So by the defintion we are in a recession.
Why would you say "by your own definition we are NOT in a recession"??
and of course Gente showed you that industrial activity is in fact growing. So by your own definition we are NOT in a recession. But you still say we are. Which is it?
But agreed a lot of this is just words and definitions.
re·ces·sion /rəˈseSH(ə)n/ noun 1.a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters:
So by the defintion we are in a recession.
Why would you say "by your own definition we are NOT in a recession"??
we're going around in circles.
There is a formal definition and an informal definition.
You are using the informal definition.
I am using the formal definition:
The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.
re·ces·sion /rəˈseSH(ə)n/ noun 1.a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters:
So by the defintion we are in a recession.
Why would you say "by your own definition we are NOT in a recession"??
we're going around in circles.
There is a formal definition and an informal definition.
You are using the informal definition.
I am using the formal definition:
The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.
How is the definition in Oxford Dictionary "informal"?
re·ces·sion /rəˈseSH(ə)n/ noun 1.a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters:
So by the defintion we are in a recession.
Why would you say "by your own definition we are NOT in a recession"??
we're going around in circles.
There is a formal definition and an informal definition.
You are using the informal definition.
I am using the formal definition:
The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.
It doesn't even matter imo. A recession can be as severe as the Great Depression or GFC or as mild as the post-war one and others. The dot com bust was technically a recession too but hardly anyone outside of tech speculators cared very much.
Call it a recession or don't call it one, the point is that jobs are still being added with no indication of big layoffs typical in a recession, and systemic issues arising from the markets other than crypto blowing up which is a surprise to just about no one.
re·ces·sion /rəˈseSH(ə)n/ noun 1.a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters:
So by the defintion we are in a recession.
Why would you say "by your own definition we are NOT in a recession"??
we're going around in circles.
There is a formal definition and an informal definition.
You are using the informal definition.
I am using the formal definition:
The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.
This is laughable. Nber in the past has defined a recession as two consecutive declines in GDP but now they say this ...
While the popular definition of a recession is “two consecutive quarters of negative real gross domestic product (GDP) growth,” the NBER does not strictly abide by this designation (note 2).
They don't "strictly abide by this designation" meaning we ARE in a recession as we have defined it in the past but now we are deviating by that designation because it makes this adminstration look like clowns.
I said earlier this month bear market rally 3,950-4,150. That is all you are getting. New lows by next Fed meeting.
Igy, interesting prediction. Did you get these numbers from somewhere? What are you basing this off of? My gut feeling is also that this is a bear market rally. Sold some of my AMZN just now, being that it's up 12% on the day and unfortunately, I need the money.
There is a formal definition and an informal definition.
You are using the informal definition.
I am using the formal definition:
The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.
Nber in the past has defined a recession as two consecutive declines in GDP
The Atlanta Fed GDP Now model has its first estimate of 3Q GDP. This is the quarter we are in now and has 8 weeks remaining. Long way to go, but if said GDP Now was a good predictor for the 2Q you probably should think it will be a good predictor of the 3Q.
Nber in the past has defined a recession as two consecutive declines in GDP
link please
They say it right here.
While the popular definition of a recession is “two consecutive quarters of negative real gross domestic product (GDP) growth,” the NBER does not strictly abide by this designation (note 2).
While the popular definition of a recession is “two consecutive quarters of negative real gross domestic product (GDP) growth,” the NBER does not strictly abide by this designation (note 2).
where does that say that NBER used to use the 'two quarter' definition?
I said earlier this month bear market rally 3,950-4,150. That is all you are getting. New lows by next Fed meeting.
Igy, interesting prediction. Did you get these numbers from somewhere? What are you basing this off of? My gut feeling is also that this is a bear market rally. Sold some of my AMZN just now, being that it's up 12% on the day and unfortunately, I need the money.
Off the top of my head, you can check the numbers. So assuming this is a bear market rally that will fail, the June high before the lows was ~4,175. Fib technical retrace of the lows 38.2 = ~4,088 and 50.0 = 4,200. My theory is the rally fails below the June high. A breakout above ~4,200 could negate that short term. Fundamentally, I believe the market, and economy are far worse in many ways than the Tech and GFC.
