Flagpole is THE foremost authority on anything and everything here. Flagpole says a recession is consecutive quarters of declining GDPs. End of discussion. We ARE in a recession.
A really good article on the latest GDP report today, including this: "Economists largely say that conditions do not meet the formal definition of a recession but that the risks of one are rising."
Specifically, they point to a robust job market, lack of increasing unemployment filings, and households still sitting on mountains of cash in their savings accounts, among others. They quote one economist as calling this more of a slowdown and a "decline in domestic spending."
To summarize ... The definition of a recession that the government has used for decades makes the Joe Biden and his administration look really bad so we will no longer use that definition and instead look at other "metrics" instead.
To summarize ... The definition of a recession that the government has used for decades makes the Joe Biden and his administration look really bad so we will no longer use that definition and instead look at other "metrics" instead.
Wrongo Sally. The government has always had an agency determine when a recession starts and ends.
the liberal press uses the 2-quarter definition.
so you should be against the 2-quarter definition, right?
I read an interesting analogy to the present time...the years after ww2.
Obviously, then as now, there was a giant catastrophe and the entire economy was changed.
hundreds of thousands of men came back to the US and wanted to buy stuff. but the US factories were still making tanks instead of toasters. So prices soared for whatever goods could be found. And the men were given government money to spend. This is similar to COVID closing a lot of production.
And then, like now because of COVID, overseas had troubles supplying goods. They were then rubble. Now they are sick with COVID in Asia.
US Inflation soared over 10% for a time but eventually things got sorted and we had the 50s boom.
Quick update - with reliable valuation gauges still beyond every extreme prior to Aug 2020 and market internals still divergent, I still view this as a "clearing rally" over a trap-door - until/unless internals shift. Adequate retracement, gaps filled, but no forecasts required. pic.twitter.com/xi0BP6eUl6
This downturn has been a blessing if you’re still contributing to your investments. I’ve been upping my investing since spring and hope to continue. If you still have long time horizon, keep on upping your contribution. Investing more today is worth a lot more than later.
To summarize ... The definition of a recession that the government has used for decades makes the Joe Biden and his administration look really bad so we will no longer use that definition and instead look at other "metrics" instead.
Wrongo Sally. The government has always had an agency determine when a recession starts and ends.
the liberal press uses the 2-quarter definition.
so you should be against the 2-quarter definition, right?
Yes, the NBER determines recessions. IN EVERY RECESSION SINCE THE END OF WWII INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION HAS DECREASED. There is a strong correlation;
Graph and download economic data for Industrial Production: Total Index from Q1 1919 to Q3 2022 about IP, production, industry, indexes, USA, headline figure, real, and GDP.
2 consecutive quarters of SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE REAL GDP NEGATIVE, yet IP IS INCREASING! This occurred once before and the NBER did not declare a recession, 1947.
This downturn has been a blessing if you’re still contributing to your investments. I’ve been upping my investing since spring and hope to continue. If you still have long time horizon, keep on upping your contribution. Investing more today is worth a lot more than later.
Or, as any gambler should know, you may be throwing good money after bad.
A really good article on the latest GDP report today, including this: "Economists largely say that conditions do not meet the formal definition of a recession but that the risks of one are rising."
Specifically, they point to a robust job market, lack of increasing unemployment filings, and households still sitting on mountains of cash in their savings accounts, among others. They quote one economist as calling this more of a slowdown and a "decline in domestic spending."
A really good article on the latest GDP report today, including this: "Economists largely say that conditions do not meet the formal definition of a recession but that the risks of one are rising."
Specifically, they point to a robust job market, lack of increasing unemployment filings, and households still sitting on mountains of cash in their savings accounts, among others. They quote one economist as calling this more of a slowdown and a "decline in domestic spending."