John Hussman diligently polishing his one (1) Morningstar star of distinction on this short covering rally as presumed by Igy.
That got me interested ... I looked up all the Hussman funds and here they are ...
Hussman Strategic (HSGFX) - 1 star (1 star is lowest or so I thought)
Hussman Strategic International - 1 star
Hussman Strategic total return - 2 stars (WOW!)
Hussman Strategic Allocation - ZERO stars - yes, no stars - I thought 1 stars was lowest but I was wrong. It has to be really bad.
Four funds, four stars total. That would average 1 star avg. per fund.
Of course, that is looking back, and the we are certainly being led to believe John Hussman's time has come. And one can only surmise how lavishly his current investors shall be rewarded!
Just FYI - while the 2001 recession had two negative GDP quarters, they weren't consecutive. Conversely, 1956 and 2011 had two non-consecutive negative quarters, but were not considered recessions. The two-quarter thing is a rule of thumb, not the "definition" of a recession. https://t.co/sH5CA3s1pzpic.twitter.com/WLIT6glcDY
well I guess we're officially in stagflation....1Q and 2Q real growth was negative but inflation was very high.
Stocks don't seem to care about the GDP print - sp500 trading down just 30 bps
Personally, I still think econ stats in the post-pandemic period have been wrong a lot of the time. Just too much stuff that doesn't make much sense.
Stagflation.... with full employment at like 3.5%? lol
Unemployment is the laggiest indicator. I’d have to recheck but I think we started a couple of the last recessions with low and falling unemployment. Companies don’t like to let people go until they have to. Then it snowballs as fewer workers buy fewer lunches etc.
Ironically just two posts later, agip points out a situation where Wall Street has been wrong. Of course, sometimes they are right. Time will tell if Igy or I was right on this one. I like my chances.
Stagflation.... with full employment at like 3.5%? lol
Unemployment is the laggiest indicator. I’d have to recheck but I think we started a couple of the last recessions with low and falling unemployment. Companies don’t like to let people go until they have to. Then it snowballs as fewer workers buy fewer lunches etc.
I'd be interested to know what the average unemployment rate was on the day of second quarter confirmed GDP shrink announcement
this is one big reason stocks are shrugging off the GDP result.
Inflation measures are falling into the 4-5% range, which suggests interest rate hikes may be muted and almost over in 2022.
Today, as part of a post about the GDP number:
Council of Economic Advisers @WhiteHouseCEA Further inflation data will be available with the release of the personal income report tomorrow. In this report we found out that quarterly core PCE price index rose at a 4.4 percent annualized rate, slowing from recent quarters although still elevated. 11/
this is one big reason stocks are shrugging off the GDP result.
Inflation measures are falling into the 4-5% range, which suggests interest rate hikes may be muted and almost over in 2022.
Today, as part of a post about the GDP number:
Council of Economic Advisers @WhiteHouseCEA Further inflation data will be available with the release of the personal income report tomorrow. In this report we found out that quarterly core PCE price index rose at a 4.4 percent annualized rate, slowing from recent quarters although still elevated. 11/
Didn't you claim that the June inflation was way down?
this is one big reason stocks are shrugging off the GDP result.
Inflation measures are falling into the 4-5% range, which suggests interest rate hikes may be muted and almost over in 2022.
Today, as part of a post about the GDP number:
Council of Economic Advisers @WhiteHouseCEA Further inflation data will be available with the release of the personal income report tomorrow. In this report we found out that quarterly core PCE price index rose at a 4.4 percent annualized rate, slowing from recent quarters although still elevated. 11/
Didn't you claim that the June inflation was way down?
Until the number came out?
yes, I had that CPI number wrong - I thought inflation would be shown to be moderating that month, but it had not.
I believe tomorrow we get an indicator called the PCE index, which the Fed has said it prefers to CPI as a measure of inflation.
If that starts to show a decline in the rate of inflation it would help everyone. And I will have been only a month wrong.
Meanwhile, gas is down around 70 cents per gallon in a month give or take. That'll help.
with markets up at 11: 00 AM, we can say many/most indices are breaking out to new cyclical highs. Highest levels in around 7 weeks now. The way markets have held yesterday's huge gains is impressive...the pattern has been to gain big on Fed day and then give it all back the next day. Still could happen of course.
Didn't you claim that the June inflation was way down?
Until the number came out?
yes, I had that CPI number wrong - I thought inflation would be shown to be moderating that month, but it had not.
I believe tomorrow we get an indicator called the PCE index, which the Fed has said it prefers to CPI as a measure of inflation.
If that starts to show a decline in the rate of inflation it would help everyone. And I will have been only a month wrong.
Meanwhile, gas is down around 70 cents per gallon in a month give or take. That'll help.
Biden was saying more than a year ago inflation was "transitory."
Janet Yellen was saying six months ago that inflation would be coming down.
Agip has been saying forever that inflation will be coming down.
Flagpole said this weak that "inflation is waning."
All of them have been flat-out wrong. Time to quit listening to them and start listening to actual people who know what's going on. Liberals only say what they know politicaally is the right thing to say. They dont' care about facts or anything economically-based. Always say what will help Joe Biden and co. - Screw the factual stuff.