Biggest equity holding is ETF betting against the S+P500.
Next is Hussman
Then twitter, tesla, bitcoin.
Then a few others.
Mix has worked well the last few days
When market has been up, my holdings that are not betting against the market have been up more than the S+P500 and made more than I lost on Hussman and the ETF.
When market has been down, the ETF has come thru.
So my last 8 days have been positives -- but small positives.
I do not know. But I do think that prices will be significantly higher in 2-3 years. Isn't that the better way to look at it than trying to pick a bottom?
Yes, I agree with that. I just was curious what other folks were speculating on the near term. Unfortunately, I may have to sell some shares soon to cover some unexpected expenses. Hoping to squeeze by without doing that, though.
"The cash flows generated by the economy are nowhere near enough to service bloated market capitalizations in a way that provides adequate long-term investment returns."https://t.co/yEpQTeFpJr Long-term investment returns are not independent of the means to generate them. pic.twitter.com/MbSUtzJG8I
It’s a measure of the confidence Igy has in his prediction.
even iBonds deals in increments of $25.
Speaking of which, that Giftbox idea does work, I tried it, and bought my son a graduation present for next year that is happily earning 9% interest at the current rate until we gift it to him.
A nice option for anyone wanting to lock in todays favorable interest rates. And you can gift your significant other up to the $10K per year as well, and they can do the same for you, just as long as the recipient opens up a Treasury Direct account.
When has this been anything other than speculation. It’s literally a zero sum game.
Hyper connectivity makes the game even easier (trading apps, crypto) and more fun (discussions like this) to play.
OK, but I suspect the attitude toward speculation would change rather dramatically if the market goes down hard, and moves little over a number of years.
When has this been anything other than speculation. It’s literally a zero sum game.
Hyper connectivity makes the game even easier (trading apps, crypto) and more fun (discussions like this) to play.
OK, but I suspect the attitude toward speculation would change rather dramatically if the market goes down hard, and moves little over a number of years.
There's a way to play any angle you can think of, and I firmly believe there would be a way to play that one as well. Great minds, and, well, not-so-great minds spend lots of time trying to figure these things out....
In that vein, I would wager that something like an inverse VIX ETF would be the way to go in that case. I looked it up, and sure enough, there is one, and only one: SVXY.
(thinking to myself: now if they just offered that bad boy in a leveraged format....)
Sure. $10 to charity of choice, by last trading day before Christmas 2022. I am invested in the Hussman Fund and can’t afford a larger bet.
Agip, can you be record keeper?
done but I'm currently planning to be in a place with zero or next to zero internet for that week....I'll put it in my jan 2 calendara also, in case I cannot bounce the bet back to the surface on christmas eve
OK, but I suspect the attitude toward speculation would change rather dramatically if the market goes down hard, and moves little over a number of years.
There's a way to play any angle you can think of, and I firmly believe there would be a way to play that one as well. Great minds, and, well, not-so-great minds spend lots of time trying to figure these things out....
In that vein, I would wager that something like an inverse VIX ETF would be the way to go in that case. I looked it up, and sure enough, there is one, and only one: SVXY.
(thinking to myself: now if they just offered that bad boy in a leveraged format....)
You might want to revisit history. Oh, just four and a half years ago. Not ancient history.
Don't worry. I wouldn't touch it with a 10-foot pole. But I bet the speculators would.
Interestingly our neighbors invested in a fund that made a heavy bet against volatility, losing most of their retirement money in the February 2018 Vol explosion. Evidently they settled via arbitration. That is why I remember this event so clearly:
“In February 2018, Talon incmTed a catastrophic loss as a result of a drop in value from approximately $23,210,036 on February 5, 2018 to approximately $(3,540,122) on February 6, 2018. Talon's loss was caused by market conditions that negatively impacted its concentrated positions in naked call and pnt options on volatility related exchange traded ftmds which experienced high volatility on or about February 5, 2018. As a result, Talon received a $10,763,352 margin call from Charles Schwab ("Schwab"), which it could not meet. Schwab subsequently liquidated Talon's remaining holdings.
On April 17, 2018, investor J.D. and S.D., clients of Selway and investors in Talon, filed a lawsuit against Matsko and Selway alleging fraud and unsuitable recommendations in connection with their investment in Talon. On December 12, 2018, Matsko and Selway settled with J.D. and S.D. without admitting liability, fault, or wrongdoing.”