My ETF betting vs. S+P500 is up 0.95%.
Luckily, bitcoin and twitter up -- and Tesla too (barely).
Hussman ought to be up a bit -- takes an hour or so to get this value.
Hope Hussman does not disappoint yet again
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10
-
agip wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Ok, i read a couple of news briefs on it, and several other of the tech biggies have already made similar announcements, like META, Alphabet, MSFT, to name a few.
It did reference an abundance of caution in "uncertain times" - point being, entirely committal, but rather, perhaps a slight bit cautious going forward, esp. given to the propensity to keep in step with its tech brethren.
And lastly, with them announcing earnings next week (Oy, vay!), one cannot rule out the possibility that this is a preemptive move to propose cost cutting measures in what may be a disappointing earnings announcement. That's the way these companies position themselves in advance of bad news. And maybe the bad news is not about the economical outlook, but might be company specific in this case.
Point being, I don't know how much you can read into this announcement and concern of theirs.
yipes I guess the market isn't going to shrug this off.
No, but not going to overreact, either. Could just be the short-term downward bounce off the S&P 3900 resistance level.
At least, one can hope so.
10 -
1 month total return.
The market lows were about a month ago, so this is which sectors have rebounded the strongest and weakest. This isn't from the exact bottom but close.
this is before 7/18/22 results, so up to date numbers are a little worse than this.
BTC +13
ARKK +12
GME +10
Healthcare +7
Staples +6
Utils +5
TSLA +3
REITS +3
Tech +3
Corp Bonds +3
SP500 +2
Cons Discr +2
Inter Treas +2
Value +1
Comms sector +1
Junk +1
ST Corp Bonds +1
Global 60/40 +1
Financials +1
Small Caps 0
Defense 0
TIPS 0
Clean energy -1
Industrials -2
Retail -3
Hussman -3
Non US Devlped -3
China -5
COWZ -5
Emerging -5
Weed -7
Gold -7
Materials -7
Commodity basket -12
Energy -16
PTON -16
Much of what has done well is what got beat up the most in 2022. So a lot of bouncing from the ashes. sometimes catching a falling knife is a good plan.
Interesting to see commodities down 12%, materials down 7%. That's in just one month. The Fed will see that and understand the inflation story is ending.
Healthcare sure is doing well. That probably explains why some stock picking funds are doing well....that's a big sector that can be in growth or value funds.
Staples doing well, as you'd expect when a recession is possible.
21 -
S+P 500 near bear market territory again for 2022 (down 19.64%).
Down more tomorrow?
My guess is yes
10 -
Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:
wondering wrote:
Does Hussman not realize that things are far from hypervalued right now?
I was reading the Hussman Funds semi-annual report dated 12/31/21. HSGFX (strategic growh) commenced operatins 7/24/2000. Since that date $10,000 invested in the S & P would be worth $50,000 as of year-end 2021. $10,000 invested in HSGFX would be worth .... drum roll please ... $10,976.
Today:
Dow -0.69%
S&P 500 -0.84%
NASDAQ -0.81%
Russell 2,000 -0.34
LOUD DRUM ROLL ….
HSGFX +0.71%
Now ain’t that something. 😹
02 -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:
I was reading the Hussman Funds semi-annual report dated 12/31/21. HSGFX (strategic growh) commenced operatins 7/24/2000. Since that date $10,000 invested in the S & P would be worth $50,000 as of year-end 2021. $10,000 invested in HSGFX would be worth .... drum roll please ... $10,976.
Today:
Dow -0.69%
S&P 500 -0.84%
NASDAQ -0.81%
Russell 2,000 -0.34
LOUD DRUM ROLL ….
HSGFX +0.71%
Now that ain’t something. 😿
Fixed.
20 -
Johannes wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Today:
Dow -0.69%
S&P 500 -0.84%
NASDAQ -0.81%
Russell 2,000 -0.34
LOUD DRUM ROLL ….
HSGFX +0.71%
Now that ain’t something. 😿
Fixed.
Poor Obsessed Troll. 😹
Fixed. 😷
02 -
It’s great to see all this talk about my wonderful fund. My thanks to Igy and K5 for their support. Today we were up a full nickel which puts us a solid 2 cents above our 30-day low. It’s up, up, and away for this fund.
To those nay sayers out there (I’m looking at you, Sally), we are now only a little more than 30% below where we were at inception. And we’ve accomplished this early in our third decade! What other funds can make a claim like that? Finally regarding the 1.23% fee, a guy’s gotta eat. And without that 1.5% early withdrawal charge, people would leave the fund in droves. We’ve already lost about 80% of our deposits. We need the fund to survive so that Igy will have something to post about. (He has a yuge man crush on me.)
Thanks again for all of your support (except Sally).
50 -
Earnie wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
😹
”For our part, we ultimately adapted to deranged Fed policies by becoming content to gauge the presence or absence of speculative psychology – based on the uniformity or divergence of market internals – without assuming that either speculation or risk-aversion have reliable limits. So yes, this time was different, but in a very dangerous way. Faced with a zero-interest rate world that combined ‘fear of missing out’ with a belief that ‘there is no alternative’ to yield-seeking speculation, investors unwittingly drove the most reliable stock market valuation measures to levels beyond the 1929 and 2000 extremes. Unfortunately, those valuations also imply dismal long-term returns in any world not permanently dominated by FOMO and TINA psychology. Measured from the recent bubble peak, the likely consequence will be a long, interesting, 10-20 year trip to nowhere for the S&P 500. There’s also a strong possibility of an interim loss in the S&P 500 in the range of 50-70% over the completion of this market cycle, or as we observed between 2000-2009, a sequence of cyclical lows punctuated by several extended recoveries.”
– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., April 2022, Repricing a Market Priced for Zero
Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 15.8. This P/E ratio is below the 5-year average (18.6) and below the 10-year average (17.0).
01 -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
At least Hussman is honest enough to admit that he has “adjusted” his data. Of course, you have to read the fine print to learn that he has twisted the data to fit his narrative.
20 -
ETH went from under 900 to over 1500 in a month, crazy.
00 -
Investor noob wrote:
ETH went from under 900 to over 1500 in a month, crazy.
Got dammit. Was waiting for total blood in the streets to start buying more crypto. Guess ~900 was that low.
If it bumps up a little more we may get some fomo hype buying.
00 -
Swaglord369 wrote:
Investor noob wrote:
ETH went from under 900 to over 1500 in a month, crazy.
Got dammit. Was waiting for total blood in the streets to start buying more crypto. Guess ~900 was that low.
If it bumps up a little more we may get some fomo hype buying.
Don't buy it. Why support an environmental stink-bomb?
I've felt that way for a long time and dabbled in it once or twice myself, but this time I mean it.
No, really!
01 -
seattle prattle wrote:
Swaglord369 wrote:
Got dammit. Was waiting for total blood in the streets to start buying more crypto. Guess ~900 was that low.
If it bumps up a little more we may get some fomo hype buying.
Don't buy it. Why support an environmental stink-bomb?
I've felt that way for a long time and dabbled in it once or twice myself, but this time I mean it.
No, really!
ETH is supposed to be much better when it goes from proof of work to proof of stake, if that ever happens. August 8 is the date of a merge net such I suspect is causing this run-up.
If environmental impact is your concern then there are low carbon footprint coins such as ALGO, ADA, SOL etc.
00 -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vixxxxxxxxens wrote:
I was reading the Hussman Funds semi-annual report dated 12/31/21. HSGFX (strategic growh) commenced operatins 7/24/2000. Since that date $10,000 invested in the S & P would be worth $50,000 as of year-end 2021. $10,000 invested in HSGFX would be worth .... drum roll please ... $10,976.
Today:
Dow -0.69%
S&P 500 -0.84%
NASDAQ -0.81%
Russell 2,000 -0.34
LOUD DRUM ROLL ….
HSGFX +0.71%
Now ain’t that something. 😹
ETF bet against S+P 500 = +.78%
00 -
Year to Date
This does not count 7/18's drop, but premarket that loss looks recovered so these numbers are pretty close if the market opens up 75 bps on Tuesday.
Energy +26
Hussman +14
Utilities -1
Short term TIPS -3
Staples -4
GME -5
Defense Sector: -5
Short term corp bonds -5
Gold -7
Healthcare -7
COWZ -7
TIPS -8
Treasuries -8
Value -9
30/70 conservative allocation: -11
Junk -11
Corp Bonds -14
Global 60/40 -16
Industrials sector -17
SP500 -18
Emerging -18
China -18
Financials -19
Small Caps -20
REITS -20
Materials -20
Non US Develpd -21
Clean Energy -23
Tech -26
Comms sector -28
Cons Discr -29
TSLA -32
Retail -33
Weed - 48
BTC -53
ARKK -53
PTON -76
nothing too surprising...this is the world we have been living in all year.
Nice to see the market following the playbook, with utilities, value and staples doing fine.
What the heck is going on with weed stocks? This was supposed to be the next big thing.
The 30/70 conservative allocation worked in a sense...stocks were down 18-20% and it lost just 11%. Still....having people lose that much money in a 30/70 fund hurts. But with bonds yielding more now it may recoup some of that.
So the question is... now what....buy what has been rekt or stay with sectors that are working. that'll be the question.
11 -
the huge divergence between GDP Now and the Street continues....
this is for 2Q. The quarter that already ended. So this is not looking forward. We're well into 3Q already.
GDP Now got worse today: negative 1.6%
Street is at around positive 2.0%
Note that GDP Now is a model, with, I believe, no human input. for better or worse.
In any case, will be fascinating to see what 2Q GDP comes out to be, given that massive divergence. How many hundreds of billions of dollars does that discrepancy represent? How will the 'wrong' side explain itself?
July 28 is the release of the first estimate.
10 -
My synopsis is positioning is bearish, as fundamentally the environment remains decidedly negative. Short covering on any positive lead, then back to short on the reverse. Good trading environment for institutions, but tough on retail.
02 -
small caps breaking out
risk on, baby
00 -
No sh!t Sherlock. You’re just saying the rallies are being sold. Fantastic insight.
20
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