it's all about what is baked in. And that's never clear. But the market is assuming, I believe, that by the end of the calendar year, the Fed rate will be around 3.5%. And then in 2023 drop a bit.
So nah stocks might do fine if we stay on that route, because that's the baseline assumption now.
If T-bills go from 3.00% to 4.00% won't money leave equities?
it's all about what is baked in. And that's never clear. But the market is assuming, I believe, that by the end of the calendar year, the Fed rate will be around 3.5%. And then in 2023 drop a bit.
So nah stocks might do fine if we stay on that route, because that's the baseline assumption now.
agip, it's not over until the close of trading today, but it looks like I will lose our bet. Remind me the name of the charity I agreed to pay out to?
it's all about what is baked in. And that's never clear. But the market is assuming, I believe, that by the end of the calendar year, the Fed rate will be around 3.5%. And then in 2023 drop a bit.
So nah stocks might do fine if we stay on that route, because that's the baseline assumption now.
agip, it's not over until the close of trading today, but it looks like I will lose our bet. Remind me the name of the charity I agreed to pay out to?
it's all about what is baked in. And that's never clear. But the market is assuming, I believe, that by the end of the calendar year, the Fed rate will be around 3.5%. And then in 2023 drop a bit.
So nah stocks might do fine if we stay on that route, because that's the baseline assumption now.
agip, it's not over until the close of trading today, but it looks like I will lose our bet. Remind me the name of the charity I agreed to pay out to?
I do love a big friday rally. Makes the weekend so much nicer.
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My guess is that this "rally" will fizzle before close today
Don't say that! Let's see Dow, Nas and S&P all end the day up 2-plus %! Market is rocking now. Heck - I wouldn't mind if Hussman was up a bit at the end of the day.
My guess is that this "rally" will fizzle before close today
Don't say that! Let's see Dow, Nas and S&P all end the day up 2-plus %! Market is rocking now. Heck - I wouldn't mind if Hussman was up a bit at the end of the day.
Two things, if the current daily trend continues thru the close Hussman should do better than a short fund. Furthermore, the Hussman fund should continue to outperform the Dow over the next two years, and by quite a bit.
Don't say that! Let's see Dow, Nas and S&P all end the day up 2-plus %! Market is rocking now. Heck - I wouldn't mind if Hussman was up a bit at the end of the day.
Two things, if the current daily trend continues thru the close Hussman should do better than a short fund. Furthermore, the Hussman fund should continue to outperform the Dow over the next two years, and by quite a bit.
Well, that would be QUITE A CHANGE. Hussman is down a NEGATIVE 5% over the last 10 years. The other markets are maybe up about 400% in that time period.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2022 (with 7% S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 60% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 60% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Two things, if the current daily trend continues thru the close Hussman should do better than a short fund. Furthermore, the Hussman fund should continue to outperform the Dow over the next two years, and by quite a bit.
Well, that would be QUITE A CHANGE. Hussman is down a NEGATIVE 5% over the last 10 years. The other markets are maybe up about 400% in that time period.
Who cares? Certainly not me, my time with the fund has outperformed most markets.
looks like we'll be down a smidge for the week and up a smidge for the last 30 days.
Not bad for a bear market.
I tend to think this may be a signal that the worst is priced into the current level and it may be safe to start dipping one's toes into the water, albeit gradually.
Furthermore, the Hussman fund should continue to outperform the Dow over the next two years, and by quite a bit.
Idiotic.
😹
”For our part, we ultimately adapted to deranged Fed policies by becoming content to gauge the presence or absence of speculative psychology – based on the uniformity or divergence of market internals – without assuming that either speculation or risk-aversion have reliable limits. So yes, this time was different, but in a very dangerous way. Faced with a zero-interest rate world that combined ‘fear of missing out’ with a belief that ‘there is no alternative’ to yield-seeking speculation, investors unwittingly drove the most reliable stock market valuation measures to levels beyond the 1929 and 2000 extremes. Unfortunately, those valuations also imply dismal long-term returns in any world not permanently dominated by FOMO and TINA psychology. Measured from the recent bubble peak, the likely consequence will be a long, interesting, 10-20 year trip to nowhere for the S&P 500. There’s also a strong possibility of an interim loss in the S&P 500 in the range of 50-70% over the completion of this market cycle, or as we observed between 2000-2009, a sequence of cyclical lows punctuated by several extended recoveries.”
– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., April 2022, Repricing a Market Priced for Zero
Well, that would be QUITE A CHANGE. Hussman is down a NEGATIVE 5% over the last 10 years. The other markets are maybe up about 400% in that time period.
Who cares? Certainly not me, my time with the fund has outperformed most markets.
How is that possible given its performance the past ten years?
looks like we'll be down a smidge for the week and up a smidge for the last 30 days.
Not bad for a bear market.
I tend to think this may be a signal that the worst is priced into the current level and it may be safe to start dipping one's toes into the water, albeit gradually.