Down goes the Dow

to be clear, I made no model, this was me noodling away with a purely judgement-based forecast showing my own personal confidence bounds. No math or data were harmed in the production of this latest forecast…

Got it. I wouldn't really know the difference between a model and a noodling if I saw it.

Pro tip: Big red downward pointing arrows for the win. At least Zero Hedge would have us believe so.

Not sure about Zerohedge, but the success of a stick save from the Fed looking less likely by the day.

i dunno...looks to me that they'll raise rates 75 bps this time and that could be it.

Investors hypothesized that the past two hours, but personally doubt that has validity.

To add, the negativity has a life of its own, mirror image of the positivity on way up. Unhinged optimism turns to despair would be typical.

The market has gone down significantly early the last few days only to stage comebacks during trading hours to finish in the red but not by much.

I think these rallies have been false hopes.

I am going in more on the ETF that bets against the market tomorrow morning

Hussman lost money today.

Damn.

S+P 500 down 0.30%,

My "counter" ETF up 0.29%.

Hussman? Down 0.14%.

I was down a couple of bucks on the day awaiting Hussman. Expecting to be up a few bucks once that came in.

But no.

I'd dump it but the crook charges you a 1.5% fee if you sell within 60 days of purchase.

May have to do it anyway.

I would say a 75 bp hike is pretty much guaranteed at this point after the 9.1% result. More interesting question is, how much more will they increase rates?

Canada went 1%, Fed speaker floated 1%. It will be 1%.

1% would cause a drop in the markets I think. And it's less than two weeks away now.

A much bigger issue in my mind is EPS reports and guidance from reporting companies. I would submit these reports will wilt over the coming year.

What a garbage fund. At least it was down only 0.14% today. They are probably celebrating at Hussman. They charge an exit fee because everyone has been getting rid of Hussman over the last few years. They have come to realize it is just junk.

Investors have been bailing on that crap fund for years. It now holds about 17% of what it once held. I’m not sure why any knowledgeable person would go near that guy.

The official narrative is that the rate hike will be later this month with a 50/50 chance of it being 1.00%.

"U.S. equity futures moved higher Friday as stocks looked to snap a five-day losing streak amid easing bets on a jumbo Fed rate hike later this month and a key reading of June retail sales prior to the start of trading.
Stocks are holding onto their pre-market gains, as well, despite weaker-than-expected earnings from Wells Fargo (WFC) - Get Wells Fargo & Company Report, which followed its larger rival JPMorgan (JPM) - Get JP Morgan Chase & Co. Report in setting aside a big number to cover for potential increases in bad loans as the broader economic outlook deteriorates."

Why is the market up a bit? Weaker than expected earnings? Increase in bad loans?

And what's this about easing bets on a jumbo Fed rate hike later this month?

Most sources are saying 0.75% if not 1.00%.

I am expecting continued drops in the equity market for some time

I don't think the market will care much whether it is 75 or 100 bps...getting up to 3 or 3.5% is already baked in. Whether we get there in 3 hikes or 2 hikes...isn't hugely important. The instant the fed says 'ok we are going to be more data dependent now' is what markets are waiting for. It's all what the fed says and what the data show. And the data are largely deflationary.

Nice opening rally today...up 90 bps now. Good retail sales numbers out. Suggests the consumer may be grumpy as all get out...but is still spending. And consumer spending is a massive piece of the puzzle. Plus import export prices fell a bit and NY state reported decent econ activity.

CNN greed and fear index still in 'extreme fear'

dry kindling.

cnn.com

Fear and Greed Index - Investor Sentiment | CNN

CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is a way to gauge stock market movements and whether stocks are fairly priced. The index uses seven market indicators to help answer the question: What emotion is driving the market now?

Link:www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

If T-bills go from 3.00% to 4.00% won't money leave equities?