Got paid today. Put $2000 in the market. Will continue to put whatever extra money I have into the market as always. Part of why I think the medium term outlook (6-12 months) is still up from here. Short term pretty choppy and maybe even negative, but we'll be higher 6 months from now. Too many people like me who robo-invest, and that money will flow into the market as long as we have jobs. Unless unemployment skyrockets...
Interesting how it seems like we get bad news, the market rallies a percent or so in response, then the next 1-2 days are more logical and drop 1-3%. Strange.
Got paid today. Put $2000 in the market. Will continue to put whatever extra money I have into the market as always. Part of why I think the medium term outlook (6-12 months) is still up from here. Short term pretty choppy and maybe even negative, but we'll be higher 6 months from now. Too many people like me who robo-invest, and that money will flow into the market as long as we have jobs. Unless unemployment skyrockets...
Interesting how it seems like we get bad news, the market rallies a percent or so in response, then the next 1-2 days are more logical and drop 1-3%. Strange.
I think Jim cramer said July 13 (yesterday) was the bear market low. So keep investing your money - the market WILL be much higher by the end of the year. That is me saying it not Jim Cramer. And I have a better track record than he.
Got paid today. Put $2000 in the market. Will continue to put whatever extra money I have into the market as always. Part of why I think the medium term outlook (6-12 months) is still up from here. Short term pretty choppy and maybe even negative, but we'll be higher 6 months from now. Too many people like me who robo-invest, and that money will flow into the market as long as we have jobs. Unless unemployment skyrockets...
Interesting how it seems like we get bad news, the market rallies a percent or so in response, then the next 1-2 days are more logical and drop 1-3%. Strange.
I think Jim cramer said July 13 (yesterday) was the bear market low. So keep investing your money - the market WILL be much higher by the end of the year. That is me saying it not Jim Cramer. And I have a better track record than he.
I guess there is no reason for me to join the CNBC Investment Club.
but just feels like a matter of time before we go lower.
although there seems to be a well of buying when the sp500 goes below 3800. Eh.
as for buying now...probably the great depression and great recession were the only times buying at time like this was not the right move, with a 2-3 year time horizon. But who knows. the pandemic era is setting all kinds of 'never happened before' things.
When you hear people talk about a "buying opportunity" here, keep in mind that the "opportunity" requires valuations to restore the most extreme levels in history. Allow for fast, furious clearing rallies, but with internals still ragged, oversold conditions aren't "limits." https://t.co/L7VaB2yRcwpic.twitter.com/wAp4vbXKsj
Why does Hussman use Price/Sales instead of Price/Earnings (which are currently <19)?
Price/sales ratio is based solely on revenue, not on profits or cash flow. As a result, it's especially useful for comparing the valuations of companies with little or no profit or negative cash flow.
Joe Biden’s justice department is sending a 69 year old grandma with breast cancer to prison for 60 days for trespassing and entering the Capitol on January 6th. Shameful. https://t.co/nSadgFAsH9
Why does Hussman use Price/Sales instead of Price/Earnings (which are currently <19)?
Price/sales ratio is based solely on revenue, not on profits or cash flow. As a result, it's especially useful for comparing the valuations of companies with little or no profit or negative cash flow.
it's also harder to manipulate. 'profit' is a sort of opinion...'sales' is a harder number.
although companies do fudge sales numbers with contracts and whatnot.
the problem with price to sales is that it disregards margins....over time margins have expanded a lot, so comparing index price/sales between eras is not a great idea. Plus, the indexes today are filled with high margin companies like MSFT and GOOG, which jack up the price to sales justifiably. Companies today - esp tech companies - can generate more profit out of each dollar of sales. but hussman will want to say 'well the 1970 price to sales was lower so we're overvalued.'
Price/sales ratio is based solely on revenue, not on profits or cash flow. As a result, it's especially useful for comparing the valuations of companies with little or no profit or negative cash flow.
it's also harder to manipulate. 'profit' is a sort of opinion...'sales' is a harder number.
although companies do fudge sales numbers with contracts and whatnot.
the problem with price to sales is that it disregards margins....over time margins have expanded a lot, so comparing index price/sales between eras is not a great idea. Plus, the indexes today are filled with high margin companies like MSFT and GOOG, which jack up the price to sales justifiably. Companies today - esp tech companies - can generate more profit out of each dollar of sales. but hussman will want to say 'well the 1970 price to sales was lower so we're overvalued.'
not great.
Hussman’s view has been correct YTD, in fact probably since Q1 2021. The last time SARK companies did well.
tech doing well today - some tech funds are actually in the green or flat. XLK, VGT.
one outcome here is that tech roars back, being the cream of US businesses.
I absolutely saw today rebounding off the early morning lows. QQQ on the verge of going positive. Larger Nas not far behind. Other indices still a bit down.
I don't think we should underestimate the markets propensity to not tank and to hold it's gains, albeit with a lot of constant, widespread volatility.
My expectation was that the index was most likely to fall between the black dashed lines, with a most optimistic upper bound shown in green and a worst case pessimistic lower bound shown in red. Actual index values to early May are the rough orange curve. Ignore the relatively straight coloured lines which represent projected ranges from 2018.
How are things working out so far? Below, the actual index values since 11 May are shown as the rough light blue trend:
Lots of noise in the data, as per normal, but so far, after two months, the projections are holding on. I'm still thinking we bottom out somewhere between 2400 to 3200 next summer, but of course who the heck knows?
it's also harder to manipulate. 'profit' is a sort of opinion...'sales' is a harder number.
although companies do fudge sales numbers with contracts and whatnot.
the problem with price to sales is that it disregards margins....over time margins have expanded a lot, so comparing index price/sales between eras is not a great idea. Plus, the indexes today are filled with high margin companies like MSFT and GOOG, which jack up the price to sales justifiably. Companies today - esp tech companies - can generate more profit out of each dollar of sales. but hussman will want to say 'well the 1970 price to sales was lower so we're overvalued.'
not great.
Hussman’s view has been correct YTD, in fact probably since Q1 2021. The last time SARK companies did well.
true. His 12 year losing streak using price to sales as a predictor of future performance did come to an end.
Hussman’s view has been correct YTD, in fact probably since Q1 2021. The last time SARK companies did well.
true. His 12 year losing streak using price to sales as a predictor of future performance did come to an end.
I don’t think I need to regurgitate those Frankenstein dozen years of monetary experiments that have created today’s problems. Funny how fundamental investing eventually becomes a reality check to those that think it doesn’t matter.