I just feel this thing will crater 2% in the last 30 minutes. Flat after that inflation report from heck is just too much good news. The market will proceed to punish our hopes by dropping like a rock through to the close.
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agip wrote:
I'm still buying in size VCSH....short term corporate bonds. I think getting 4% from short term bonds with a duration of 2.8 years is pretty good. That's c. half the return of the stock market with a lot less risk, right?
in 2022 it is down just 5% while regular bonds are down 10%.
interesting that the SEC 30-day yield is 3.99% though the Annual Yield is only 1.65%. I'm not a bond guy, but I would assume that the current conditions are particularly advantageous towards short term bonds currently. I wonder if that might be expected to likely continue?
Again, i am fairly clueless about bonds and what impacts them.
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agip wrote:
I just feel this thing will crater 2% in the last 30 minutes. Flat after that inflation report from heck is just too much good news. The market will proceed to punish our hopes by dropping like a rock through to the close.
granted, I have the advantage of a full 11 minutes later in this ever changing roller coaster ride, but I call Nasdaq 100, which happens to be what i monitor the most, to close down 0.30% for the day. That's all.
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agip wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
I follow your logic perfectly, and largely agree. But I think it goes beyond just inflation to a broader consideration of likelihood of recession, and if so, for how long, and how deep.
Isn't inflation just one of several related factors interlocked like hiring, unemployment rate, supply chain issues, etc.? Really, it's not just inflation, which i do suspect is easing (esp. with energy in the last few weeks, notably since the CPI was calculated), it's what the Fed and Powell do to combat it, and whether or not that might in effect cause a recession.
Also, I think we need to keep a lot of this in perspective. Much of what is happening has been influenced by the massive pandemic stimulus interventions, and the thought was, we need to get over that disaster, and we will deal with inflationary pressures later, which is now. Rather than suffering a massive economic calamity in 2020 and 2021 (pandemic era), the impacts were spread out to later years, and this perhaps is not surprising, given what had to be done at the time to avoid a collapse. Any truth to that?
I absolutely think that it's different this time...that economics in the post-pandemic period is unprecedented. So many things have recently happened and economists say 'well we've never seen THAT before..." So we have to be very careful to look at the 1970s and say 'well that's where we're going - a deep depression to kill inflation and then rebuild from there.' I mean maybe, but that was a different situation.
the best metaphor I know is of a ship hit by a big rogue wave, symbolically covid in this case. It rocks the ship over on its side, water spills over the gunwales, but does not sink. That was march 2020. Then the great ship rocks back the other way and grows too fast, too hot. That was 2021's 6% real growth. Then the ship rocks back again, but not as violently as the first time. That is now. Maybe a recession but nothing like 2020's.
Next the ship should rock back toward growth but not as violently as the 2021 keel over. And then rock back, each move less violent than the last until we get to a new normal.
Or maybe its the Deadliest Catch market. The ship gets rock and rolled, crew gets sea sick, Sig Hansen gets a coronary, and after all that there are only three opilio crab in each pot. 😹
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seattle prattle wrote:
agip wrote:
I'm still buying in size VCSH....short term corporate bonds. I think getting 4% from short term bonds with a duration of 2.8 years is pretty good. That's c. half the return of the stock market with a lot less risk, right?
in 2022 it is down just 5% while regular bonds are down 10%.
interesting that the SEC 30-day yield is 3.99% though the Annual Yield is only 1.65%. I'm not a bond guy, but I would assume that the current conditions are particularly advantageous towards short term bonds currently. I wonder if that might be expected to likely continue?
Again, i am fairly clueless about bonds and what impacts them.
yeah that's because the fund is rolling out of bonds yielding, say, 1% and buying new bonds yielding, say, 4%. So the 30 day yield is high, as your monthly dividend checks get larger every month from those just-bought bonds in the fund. But the 12 month yield still has dividend payments from back when the fund owned just 1% bonds, so it's lower.
In other words, new 3 or 4% bonds are flowing into the fund and as a result the fund's dividend yield should keep rising for a few years. Depending on interest rates of course.
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agip wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
interesting that the SEC 30-day yield is 3.99% though the Annual Yield is only 1.65%. I'm not a bond guy, but I would assume that the current conditions are particularly advantageous towards short term bonds currently. I wonder if that might be expected to likely continue?
Again, i am fairly clueless about bonds and what impacts them.
yeah that's because the fund is rolling out of bonds yielding, say, 1% and buying new bonds yielding, say, 4%. So the 30 day yield is high, as your monthly dividend checks get larger every month from those just-bought bonds in the fund. But the 12 month yield still has dividend payments from back when the fund owned just 1% bonds, so it's lower.
In other words, new 3 or 4% bonds are flowing into the fund and as a result the fund's dividend yield should keep rising for a few years. Depending on interest rates of course.
just to follow through on this new higher-interest rate environment...not great for stocks obvi, but anyone with a mortgage and a rising salary just had his mortgage slashed by 10% or so. Which is very, very good for them.
And savers/bond buyers will be getting larger interest checks now.
Winners and losers.
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seattle prattle wrote:
agip wrote:
I just feel this thing will crater 2% in the last 30 minutes. Flat after that inflation report from heck is just too much good news. The market will proceed to punish our hopes by dropping like a rock through to the close.
granted, I have the advantage of a full 11 minutes later in this ever changing roller coaster ride, but I call Nasdaq 100, which happens to be what i monitor the most, to close down 0.30% for the day. That's all.
we both had good calls. they did sell'em in the last 30 minutes, but only 50 bps which has to be considered a great result given how the day started.
And Seattle's -30 bp guess was very close to the -20 bps close. going by qqq anyway.
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agip wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
granted, I have the advantage of a full 11 minutes later in this ever changing roller coaster ride, but I call Nasdaq 100, which happens to be what i monitor the most, to close down 0.30% for the day. That's all.
we both had good calls. they did sell'em in the last 30 minutes, but only 50 bps which has to be considered a great result given how the day started.
And Seattle's -30 bp guess was very close to the -20 bps close. going by qqq anyway.
trying to make sense of these swings, it looks like day-trading range bound swing trading is the trend common now. A few weeks ago, rebounds were just an excuse for shorts piling back on and resuming the larger trend downward. Now it seems more like inter-day modest range bound trading, and that was the case today, even with a bombshell CPI number, for that matter.
If I was inclined to chase a few dollars for day-trades, it looks do-able, but no heart for it since I am more inclined to think longer term.
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HSGFX +0.28 and….
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
HSGFX +0.28 and….
S+P 500 down 0.45%
ETF to go against the market up 0.53%.
Hussman + 0.29%
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Sally Vix wrote:
The average American household with 2 workers has lost $7,000 to inflation. Come on Joe - do something! You promised you would be a good president - but you are the worst!
Do something like what?
Send out more rounds of stimulus to send demand and prices up more?
The inflation is because we can’t produce enough to keep up with demand.
What does the President do to fix that?11 -
Actually, opening up the borders for more immigrant work will temper inflation down.
Is that what Biden’s detractors want him to do?20 -
Ex L wrote:
Actually, opening up the borders for more immigrant work will temper inflation down.
Is that what Biden’s detractors want him to do?yeah if Rs really want Biden to reduce inflation, they;d be in favor of opening the border, taking the china tariffs off, ending all trade wars and reinstating TPP, redoing the Iran nuke deal, pushing electric cars to reduce gasoline demand, etc.
But Rs are deeply unserious people.
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Ex L wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
The average American household with 2 workers has lost $7,000 to inflation. Come on Joe - do something! You promised you would be a good president - but you are the worst!
Do something like what?
Send out more rounds of stimulus to send demand and prices up more?
The inflation is because we can’t produce enough to keep up with demand.
What does the President do to fix that?What about all the trillions of $$ the Fed has been conjuring up for years?
Doesn't that in turn devalue the dollar which then leads to inflation?
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carmine9 wrote:
Ex L wrote:
Do something like what?
Send out more rounds of stimulus to send demand and prices up more?
The inflation is because we can’t produce enough to keep up with demand.
What does the President do to fix that?What about all the trillions of $ the Fed has been conjuring up for years?
Doesn't that in turn devalue the dollar which then leads to inflation?
the dollar is the strongest its been for 20 years or so. So that's not it.
the issue here is
1) trump's trade wars frayed supply chains
2) covid hits. people go into hiding, save an absolute carpton of money, and gummints around the world send them even more money.
3) COVID ends, people start spending tht savings. There aren;t enough goods to sell, so prices rise. And supply chains are wrecked so resupply can't happen. Result is inflation from high demand and not enough resupply.
4) RU invades UKR, taking oil off the market. That really hurts.
the end result is lots of inflation around the world. Several reasons.
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this is it wrote:
I bonds are looking better every day.
There’s a way to get more than $10k at this rate if you gift to other people and they gift to you etc. I believe.
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You can complain about the Fed conjuring up money for years all you want.
The question is, what do you want the administration to do right NOW?00 -
Swaglord369 wrote:
this is it wrote:
I bonds are looking better every day.
There’s a way to get more than $10k at this rate if you gift to other people and they gift to you etc. I believe.
Hmmm, I can’t imagine that being a wise thing to do for such a marginal benefit.
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Ex L wrote:
Actually, opening up the borders for more immigrant work will temper inflation down.
Is that what Biden’s detractors want him to do?Open up the borders? Are you totally out of touch? They have been open since Joe took office. Illegal immigrants even get a smart phone.
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