ARKK up 30% from its lows...at a key price that it's hit a few times in the bear market and fallen back from.
if that one is a measure of risk then would be interesting and probably bullish if it gains another 5% and breaks out.
Weakest companies in the market getting a speculative bid. Days ago SARK was ~$65. I continue to add to my SARK position, but do think it continues to drift toward $50 over the coming week or two.
“There are three principal phases of a bull market: the first is represented by reviving confidence in the future of business; the second is the response of stock prices to the known improvement in corporate earnings, and the third is the period when speculation is rampant – a period when stocks are advanced on hopes and expectations. There are three principal phases of a bear market: the first represents the abandonment of the hopes upon which stocks were purchased at inflated prices; the second reflects selling due to decreased business and earnings, and the third is caused by distress selling of sound securities, regardless of their value, by those who must find a cash market for at least a portion of their assets.” – Robert Rhea, The Dow Theory, 1932
goldbugs must be crying into their beers right now....all the elements they wanted happened.
inflation
giant deficits
alternative to fiat cash
bear market in stocks
war in europe
euro falling
US political instability and open insurrection
etc.
and yet gold in USD is down 5% this year.
Sure, that's much better than stocks or bonds. But still. Must be frustrating. They got what they waited for and....the big victory is losing less money than everyone else.
I suppose the culprit here is the very strong USD...I suspect gold in any other major currency has been doing much better.
Read this in a WSJ article so no point in linking since it's behind a paywall for most of you guys, but I read that the market returns an average of 22% the second half of any year that it goes down 15% or more in the first half. Obviously that is only an average and doesn't necessarily say a ton about 2022 specifically, but that does suggest the probability of ending the year above where we're at now is pretty high.
Also looks like the FED is leaning heavily towards another 75 bp hike later this month though, so that could subdue a rally in the short term I would think. I can't really buy in much more as I've already spread myself pretty thinly, but I feel good about buying in as much as I have when the market was at or below 4100. Still think there's a reasonable chance we see sub 3700 again though.
Read this in a WSJ article so no point in linking since it's behind a paywall for most of you guys, but I read that the market returns an average of 22% the second half of any year that it goes down 15% or more in the first half. Obviously that is only an average and doesn't necessarily say a ton about 2022 specifically, but that does suggest the probability of ending the year above where we're at now is pretty high.
Also looks like the FED is leaning heavily towards another 75 bp hike later this month though, so that could subdue a rally in the short term I would think. I can't really buy in much more as I've already spread myself pretty thinly, but I feel good about buying in as much as I have when the market was at or below 4100. Still think there's a reasonable chance we see sub 3700 again though.
I've seen a ton of 'when the market gets as washed out as we just saw....we've always had a giant rally.' I've also seen many 'when we see this (insert terrible thing) then there is always another leg down' data mines.
I'm going by the general rule that the post-pandemic period will break a ton of precedents. because it has no precedent. Too much crazy stuff going on to take much past market behavior to heart.
The new worry is europe....there are signs of financial crisis brewing.
“The danger for investors is that they have learned all the wrong lessons from this bubble. They’ve come to believe that valuations can be ignored, and that Fed easing is omnipotent. They’ve come to believe that “it always comes back.” They’ve learned to embrace passive investing, because they look back over their shoulder at prices that have gone nowhere but up, and conclude that attending to valuations would have been costly and useless. They’ve come to imagine that more risk means more return, regardless of the prices they pay to get in. All these misguided beliefs will be their undoing.”
1/ Yep. From a valuation standpoint, risk is lowest at the same moment that prospective return is highest. Risk is highest at the same moment that prospective return is lowest.
Market up a little or a lot, down a little or a lot.
Hussman seems to have a small loss in any event.
I'm not exactly sure what you want. If you wish to make money when the market goes down, buy an inverse ETF.
In the meantime.
year to date
Hussman +13.93%
USA: -18.73%
Which is very good performance for a fund that has some long exposure.
I did buy an inverse ETF and it does as advertised.
Meanwhile I have had Hussman for a couple of weeks and no matter what the general market has done it had lost small amounts every day, except for one day -- maybe two -- where it made small amounts. With the fees it charges, I am down nearly 3.75% in a couple of weeks.