seems to me what will determine the next year is recession or no recession.
If this is a non-recession correction, this 25% is historically all we get. We may have had capitulation these past couple weeks with a 10% mini-crash and might expect a rebound.
But if we have a recession in 2022 then we could lose another 10-30%.
Weird contradictions out there....the street is still fairly optimistic on the economy but some predictions are saying growth is near zero. Seems to be changing very very fast.
And many inflation reads are falling very quickly. Good if it means the supply side is healing, bad if it means the demand side is cooling.
Should be one of the most important earnings seasons in a long time. Every word companies say about the future will be parsed both carefully and manically.
seems to me what will determine the next year is recession or no recession.
If this is a non-recession correction, this 25% is historically all we get. We may have had capitulation these past couple weeks with a 10% mini-crash and might expect a rebound.
But if we have a recession in 2022 then we could lose another 10-30%.
Weird contradictions out there....the street is still fairly optimistic on the economy but some predictions are saying growth is near zero. Seems to be changing very very fast.
And many inflation reads are falling very quickly. Good if it means the supply side is healing, bad if it means the demand side is cooling.
Should be one of the most important earnings seasons in a long time. Every word companies say about the future will be parsed both carefully and manically.
I think if the mid-terms are indeed a red psunami - and every indication is that 2024 is going with a republican president - then buckle up because the stock market is going to go on a humdinger (not sure that a word) ....
seems to me what will determine the next year is recession or no recession.
If this is a non-recession correction, this 25% is historically all we get. We may have had capitulation these past couple weeks with a 10% mini-crash and might expect a rebound.
But if we have a recession in 2022 then we could lose another 10-30%.
Weird contradictions out there....the street is still fairly optimistic on the economy but some predictions are saying growth is near zero. Seems to be changing very very fast.
And many inflation reads are falling very quickly. Good if it means the supply side is healing, bad if it means the demand side is cooling.
Should be one of the most important earnings seasons in a long time. Every word companies say about the future will be parsed both carefully and manically.
I keep reading headlines where some person says IF we have a recession, or a recession will come in 2023, etc. To me, these statements sound wildly out of touch. We are already in a recession, just at the very start of it. Already had several conversations with a variety of very normal people out there who have complained about fuel prices and the seriousness of its impact on their daily life, how they're not going to be able to pay rent soon if this keeps up, going to have to quit their job because it's not worth the commute, etc. I think when totally common folk start talking about how they're getting pummeled by the economy, that's a pretty strong indicator there are major problems. Also watched a YouTube video where a woman who normally makes homesteading videos talked about fuel prices and how catastrophic it's going to be to farmers (and everyone else) soon, that feed is becoming more expensive than what the animal is worth, etc. This is not good.
I've said it before, but I think getting fuel back down to under $4/gallon should be a huge priority, and it doesn't seem like the Biden administration is doing anything. You can raise interest rates all you want and prices of just about everything are still going to be high when gas is over $5/gallon.
seems to me what will determine the next year is recession or no recession.
If this is a non-recession correction, this 25% is historically all we get. We may have had capitulation these past couple weeks with a 10% mini-crash and might expect a rebound.
But if we have a recession in 2022 then we could lose another 10-30%.
Weird contradictions out there....the street is still fairly optimistic on the economy but some predictions are saying growth is near zero. Seems to be changing very very fast.
And many inflation reads are falling very quickly. Good if it means the supply side is healing, bad if it means the demand side is cooling.
Should be one of the most important earnings seasons in a long time. Every word companies say about the future will be parsed both carefully and manically.
I keep reading headlines where some person says IF we have a recession, or a recession will come in 2023, etc. To me, these statements sound wildly out of touch. We are already in a recession, just at the very start of it. Already had several conversations with a variety of very normal people out there who have complained about fuel prices and the seriousness of its impact on their daily life, how they're not going to be able to pay rent soon if this keeps up, going to have to quit their job because it's not worth the commute, etc. I think when totally common folk start talking about how they're getting pummeled by the economy, that's a pretty strong indicator there are major problems. Also watched a YouTube video where a woman who normally makes homesteading videos talked about fuel prices and how catastrophic it's going to be to farmers (and everyone else) soon, that feed is becoming more expensive than what the animal is worth, etc. This is not good.
I've said it before, but I think getting fuel back down to under $4/gallon should be a huge priority, and it doesn't seem like the Biden administration is doing anything. You can raise interest rates all you want and prices of just about everything are still going to be high when gas is over $5/gallon.
holy cow what a post.
If you want a discussion let us know. I'm hoping you just want to vent and leave it at that.
seems to me what will determine the next year is recession or no recession.
If this is a non-recession correction, this 25% is historically all we get. We may have had capitulation these past couple weeks with a 10% mini-crash and might expect a rebound.
But if we have a recession in 2022 then we could lose another 10-30%.
Weird contradictions out there....the street is still fairly optimistic on the economy but some predictions are saying growth is near zero. Seems to be changing very very fast.
And many inflation reads are falling very quickly. Good if it means the supply side is healing, bad if it means the demand side is cooling.
Should be one of the most important earnings seasons in a long time. Every word companies say about the future will be parsed both carefully and manically.
XLE ( S&P 500 Energy ) hit a all time high on June 8; it has dropped 20.36% since and is down 15.72% since the end of May! The only lower 7 day drops were in March 2020 and Oct 2008. If this was the end of the month; only March 2020, July and Oct 2008 were lower. Chart below besides XLE, Cash Gasoline-RBY00, Cash WTI-CLY00 and Cash Mr Copper PHD-HGY00 ( big strike possible in Chile's copper mines ).
not sure how much I need to get all agitated today, so I'll just say the plural of anecdote is not data and move on to something more personally rewarding.
seems to me what will determine the next year is recession or no recession.
If this is a non-recession correction, this 25% is historically all we get. We may have had capitulation these past couple weeks with a 10% mini-crash and might expect a rebound.
But if we have a recession in 2022 then we could lose another 10-30%.
Weird contradictions out there....the street is still fairly optimistic on the economy but some predictions are saying growth is near zero. Seems to be changing very very fast.
And many inflation reads are falling very quickly. Good if it means the supply side is healing, bad if it means the demand side is cooling.
Should be one of the most important earnings seasons in a long time. Every word companies say about the future will be parsed both carefully and manically.
XLE ( S&P 500 Energy ) hit a all time high on June 8; it has dropped 20.36% since and is down 15.72% since the end of May! The only lower 7 day drops were in March 2020 and Oct 2008. If this was the end of the month; only March 2020, July and Oct 2008 were lower. Chart below besides XLE, Cash Gasoline-RBY00, Cash WTI-CLY00 and Cash Mr Copper PHD-HGY00 ( big strike possible in Chile's copper mines ).
which suggests oil prices will continue to fall? And with them the rate of inflation?
I suppose that just brings up the question again...is the drop in oil because more supply is arriving into gasoline supplies...or if consumers are pulling back. Obvi the former would be better than the latter. The former suggests a healing economy, the latter recessionary behavior.
... I'll just say the plural of anecdote is not data ...
Literally all we share on here could be reasonably described as anecdotes. Some of which are dressed up to resemble data. It's really, I think, just a question of what each of us likes to think of as one or the other.
Literally all we share on here could be reasonably described as anecdotes. Some of which are dressed up to resemble data. It's really, I think, just a question of what each of us likes to think of as one or the other.
disagree strongly. You are saying there's no real reason to value FRED charts over some anonymous poster on a running message board saying he talked to a few people who are having tough times. And oh yeah he watched a you tube video. Come on.
No, that's not reasonable.
But look I don't want to get riled up. I'm sure we agree on much with this.
I think there's very little we agree on when it comes to following the markets, both in the broader sense and in the finer details. But I don't want to be the one who gets you more riled up, and I respect that your opinions are shaped by your background, training and experience, and I'll leave it at that.
I think there's very little we agree on when it comes to following the markets, both in the broader sense and in the finer details. But I don't want to be the one who gets you more riled up, and I respect that your opinions are shaped by your background, training and experience, and I'll leave it at that.
:-)
On a side note, finished painting the interior of my house last Thursday. That completes a host of delayed home maintenance projects while the wife and I went through the first health challenges in our shot lives. 😹 Anyway, started somewhat serious training again with a track workout this morning. Probably the best way to clear out unnecessary noise and frustration, market or otherwise.
I think there's very little we agree on when it comes to following the markets, both in the broader sense and in the finer details. But I don't want to be the one who gets you more riled up, and I respect that your opinions are shaped by your background, training and experience, and I'll leave it at that.
:-)
On a side note, finished painting the interior of my house last Thursday. That completes a host of delayed home maintenance projects while the wife and I went through the first health challenges in our shot lives. 😹 Anyway, started somewhat serious training again with a track workout this morning. Probably the best way to clear out unnecessary noise and frustration, market or otherwise.
Good to hear you are back at hard training.
sorry, quick training. Quick, not hard, as an old coach used to tell me.
that’s part of my problem…I finished my season this past weekend with a 10k and am trying to take 4-7 days off.
No running = easy to get riled up.
it was an ok season… couple of highlights but I’m just slowing down so much. Not sure I’ll ever do a 5k at sub 6 pace again. Rough. Hard to measure success when on the other side of the hill.
On a side note, finished painting the interior of my house last Thursday. That completes a host of delayed home maintenance projects while the wife and I went through the first health challenges in our shot lives. 😹 Anyway, started somewhat serious training again with a track workout this morning. Probably the best way to clear out unnecessary noise and frustration, market or otherwise.
Good to hear you are back at hard training.
sorry, quick training. Quick, not hard, as an old coach used to tell me.
that’s part of my problem…I finished my season this past weekend with a 10k and am trying to take 4-7 days off.
No running = easy to get riled up.
it was an ok season… couple of highlights but I’m just slowing down so much. Not sure I’ll ever do a 5k at sub 6 pace again. Rough. Hard to measure success when on the other side of the hill.
You are aging well, use the age graded tables, and masters rankings. I did some drills, 100s at 6:40 pace and 200s at 8:00 pace. So speed is relative.
igy, congrats on completing the project and in lacing the running shoes back up. Comng back is hard as hell. Don't rush it. Post-injury for me, and a few weeks ago I tried to rough-out my first intervals workout with my running club and suffered re-injuring myself. Lost a few days and it slowed up what was already a difficult, slow process. So take it in stide.
On another note, it has seemed to me that Biden has gone to great lengths to try to lower gas prices. I've heard things all the time about him loosening standards (for better or worse), begging the oil companies to increase production, etc. So, I found this very informative Fact Check article on the NY Times supporting the notion that Biden should not be blamed for high gas prices:
