This is the dumbest hot take I've seen in a while lmao. The guy is just obsessed with saying these provocative things for the sake of being provocative. This is like some Joe Rogan level bullsh!t of a pleb trying to sound smart, except worse because Hussman should actually know better since he's educated.
Not to mention gas prices, which would be a lot cheaper if the Biden administration hadn't shutdown the pipeline. Biden setting the country up for a Republican to win in 2024 right now.
ok with the major understanding that whatever I say on this means very little and is no more significant than rock paper scissors, I will go on actual record saying that the decline is winding up. We are near a bottom. this is a total washout and what we get after total washouts is a rebound. Stocks have fallen too much and the bad news is priced in.
somethign like half the SP500 is at a 52 week low. unless this is the great financial crisis all over again, this is about as bad as it gets.
there, I said it. And before I typed it I bought a large piece of the total market index.
Possibly. I think our economy is actually going to get a lot worse in the next 6-12 months, but it's very possible that's already priced in. I will go on record saying I think we will see another 2-5% drop, but probably not beyond that. The S&P500 has only had an annual return (Jan 1 to Jan 1) of less than -20% 3 times since 1950. I agree that either we will end the year higher than we are now, or this is going to be another major financial crisis. It is hard to see what would cause another 10-20% drop from here, but I suppose it's possible. If inflation stays high, it will definitely eat into people's finances more and more and limit both economic growth and the amount of money anyone has to put into the market. Some people might even have to sell off assets to pay their bills. I would think anyone who had a ton of margin when the market was at 4800 would have already sold it all by now, so I wouldn't think that would be a factor moving forward...
Either way, I bought in some today. I'll continue to buy in as long as we're down 20% or more. The median 1 year return after the market turns bear is something like 23%. That's pretty promising.
ok with the major understanding that whatever I say on this means very little and is no more significant than rock paper scissors, I will go on actual record saying that the decline is winding up. We are near a bottom. this is a total washout and what we get after total washouts is a rebound. Stocks have fallen too much and the bad news is priced in.
somethign like half the SP500 is at a 52 week low. unless this is the great financial crisis all over again, this is about as bad as it gets.
there, I said it. And before I typed it I bought a large piece of the total market index.
Possibly. I think our economy is actually going to get a lot worse in the next 6-12 months, but it's very possible that's already priced in. I will go on record saying I think we will see another 2-5% drop, but probably not beyond that. The S&P500 has only had an annual return (Jan 1 to Jan 1) of less than -20% 3 times since 1950. I agree that either we will end the year higher than we are now, or this is going to be another major financial crisis. It is hard to see what would cause another 10-20% drop from here, but I suppose it's possible. If inflation stays high, it will definitely eat into people's finances more and more and limit both economic growth and the amount of money anyone has to put into the market. Some people might even have to sell off assets to pay their bills. I would think anyone who had a ton of margin when the market was at 4800 would have already sold it all by now, so I wouldn't think that would be a factor moving forward...
Either way, I bought in some today. I'll continue to buy in as long as we're down 20% or more. The median 1 year return after the market turns bear is something like 23%. That's pretty promising.
my gut feeling is that we may be near a bottom, but rather than a rebound, we are going to see a period of high volatility - strong moves both to the upside followed by steep sell-offs.
Here's the thing - the short sellers got cremated in the late days of the bull market almost to the point of extinction. Now, it's become the sport du jour. Honestly, look at big overnight drops that are met with further selling during the day, then inch back up before the close as shorts close-out their day-trade positions. Most every move to the upside is followed by a vigorous sell-off within a day or two as short sellers sense an opportunity and pounce accordingly.
I think this continues until investors find something positive on the horizon, which is simply not there at the moment., And I think it may go a bit lower in all this, but it won't stay there.
I bought $40k on Monday and another $30k on Wednesday and, with yesterday's meltdown, expected some big gains. Somehow I am down a couple of hundred bucks
Your response prompted me to check out The Billboard Top 100 for 6/17/1972, #1 was Sammy Davis Jr's "The Candy Man." You're probably too young to remember the Republican Convention in 72, but SDJ was a major performer and led the 4 more years chant.
The diversity of songs is interesting and brought back a lot of memories. Kind of surprised to see Commander Cody's Hot Rod Lincoln that high on the charts. Used to see movies at Cinema Village NYC and sometimes pop in the Lone Star Cafe ( and now I live in the Lone Star State! ) which was around the corner, afterward. I've must have seen Cody 3 or 4 times. In 1980, on one of my first dates with my wife, we saw a movie at the CV and then caught Commander Cody at the Lone Star.
Side note; 1st date was almost our last. Went to see Jean Luc Godard's La Chinoise and Week-End. She thought I was insane.
One of the things I miss most about the 20c is the art movie theater. I was reading the original movie review of MASH (the movie) the other day. 1970. It was a scan of the physical NYT of the day so you could see the adverts for the movies being shown in NYC that day. I'd say 8 of them were actual sophisticated works of art, meant for adults. I'd heard of almost all of them despite being in preschool at the time. That scene was still around into the 90s but is pretty much dead now....the number of art films that come out is sadly tiny.
I don't know La Chinoise but I do know Week-end. That's the one with the long chain of cars, car crashes and ragged revolutionaries in the French countryside. Good one. Ogling the old cars was a treat, from 50 years down the road. Although I can understand your wife's eyeballing you about it.
The cars were also a treat in The House of Gucci. Their car wrangler liked every car I fell in love with in the 1980 zone. Porsche 924 Turbo, Fiat Spyder, old 911s, the Countach of course. Others. If I every buy a house I'll have a rotating cast of decaying sports cars from 1978 +/- 10 years.
Possibly. I think our economy is actually going to get a lot worse in the next 6-12 months, but it's very possible that's already priced in. I will go on record saying I think we will see another 2-5% drop, but probably not beyond that.
The economy and the stock market are not the same.
Seeing as how we could lose about 2 percentage points on unemployment and still be considered at max employment, I have a feeling we'll be OK. Not every recession is 2008. The early 90s recession was pretty light. And really so was the dot com bust.
It seems I'm in a small minority expecting the US markets to keep tanking. Maybe only me and Igy? Anyone else? Anyone?
I feel so lonely... :-D
Based on what, and how much lower exactly? I can see a lot of speculative pandemic gains being wiped out and that's about it.
I think many see housing as the next domino to fall...falling house prices could unleash all kinds of weirdness. Certainly it could increase the negative wealth effect (in concert with the fallen stock market) to reduce spending.
I shared a graph a couple of pages ago, along with some commentary. My best guess is the bottom will be between roughly 2400 to 3200. Of course it might not get that low, and it might get lower. That's my target range.
Based on what? A feeling in my belly...
j/k - it's based on the expectation that the markets continue to fluctuate chaotically about "the mean" which in my mind is a trend line that should be at about 3700 around now. We've been above "the idiot's mean" since about summer 2020 (was about 3100ish at that time) and now will most likely (in my mind) spend a solid chunk of time below the mean trend.
All that said, it's a fool's game trying to predict what the markets, or any other chaotic phenomenon, will do, except from a statistical point of view.
I recall that when I issued my first naive forecast in March 2018 (which is included in the graph I shared yesterday and neatly contains all the markets did since then), you panned it as being essentially useless (fair play), but at the same time refused to make your own prediction or forecast.
I've shown you mine, now show us yours... what's your prediction, and based on what?
Based on what, and how much lower exactly? I can see a lot of speculative pandemic gains being wiped out and that's about it.
I think many see housing as the next domino to fall...falling house prices could unleash all kinds of weirdness. Certainly it could increase the negative wealth effect (in concert with the fallen stock market) to reduce spending.
Pipe dream from young kids wishing for a 2008 scenario. Single family housing is still scare and demand is still catastrophically high. In fact it's so high that many are hoping for a total economic cataclysm so they can attempt to buy into the market.
Either supply needs to increase or demand needs to decrease. I think both are hard. Housing prices will certainly not go up as quickly and will slow down under higher rates, but for anyone who bought in the past 10 years you're still looking at massive gains.
My former name, that I used for several years before requesting a legal name change from the brojos, mainly because it seemed to bug you, reflects:
- I don't actually have any idea what the markets will do and can only guess, like all the rest of you
- the future of the markets is completely chaotic and largely unknowable, and all our collective efforts to assign cause-and-effect between the markets and other things (e.g., the Fed, inflation, bond prices, housing prices, ongoing wars, Musk farting ...) all boil down to a steaming heap of bullcrap, of no real predictive use to anyone, except when looking backward in narrow circumstances, useful only as a basis for idle conversation
