amusing that the dollar is at near 20-year highs....no doubt driving the goldbugs to massive depression. I mean the highest inflation in 40 years, a falling stock market, europe at bigwar, american politics a merdefest of epic proportions, China about to lapse into a die-off because of COVID, all eyes on a error-prone Fed....and the dollar is soaring and gold flat.
Bought a significant number of leveraged shorts, unfortunately sold most of them. What could have been? 😹
What will be your next move? My Roth is still 90% cash. 10% SPY put which hopefully prints today.
Best guess, new intermediate term low this week, bounce to ~4,000 then resume bear to 3,200-3,400. Worse in the Fall and 2023. Reload shorts on the bounce, start the process over again.
VIX around 33...this year it's been peaking in the 35 zone. Should get there today, I'd imagine. If it hits 40 I'd expect many to automatically start buying stocks.
Here's a recount of two bear markets ago...2018. Hard to even remember this one. Will this bear market be the same in its forgetableness? Probably not...record gasoline prices stick in your brain for some reason.
2018, the market fell 20%.
The trade war between the U.S. and China is probably the most often-cited downward pressure on the market in 2018. Tariffs on steel and aluminum crushed the auto industry and appliance makers, with the threat for an escalating tariff war still looming if a long-term deal isn't reached. Since we're talking about the two largest economies in the world by total gross domestic product (GDP), any disruption caused by this trade war could cascade down the line to other developed nations. The flattening of the yield curve also has gained notoriety in recent months. The yield curve is a depiction of the various Treasury-bond yields based on maturity. Generally speaking, we'd like to see a nice up-sloping curve, whereby shorter maturity bonds have a lower yield than longer-maturity bonds. This entices banks to lend since they borrow money at short-term rates, lend at long-term rates, and pocket the difference as net interest margin. But as the gap between short- and long-term rates narrows or inverts, it discourages lending. And it just so happens that each of the past seven recessions has been preceded by a yield-curve inversion -- although a yield-curve inversion doesn't guarantee a coming recession. Chaos in the White House hasn't helped, either. The federal-government shutdown began this past weekend as lawmakers were unable to come to an agreement on a short-term federal spending bill. Add to this President Trump's vocal criticisms of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and it's been more than enough to rile the stock market and send the S&P 500 to its lowest close since April 2017.
amusing that the dollar is at near 20-year highs....no doubt driving the goldbugs to massive depression. I mean the highest inflation in 40 years, a falling stock market, europe at bigwar, american politics a merdefest of epic proportions, China about to lapse into a die-off because of COVID, all eyes on a error-prone Fed....and the dollar is soaring and gold flat.
Not easy, this investing thing.
LOL you really don’t know much of anything, do you? You sound like this is all a big surprise to you, like you have done essentially nothing other than get carried by the current, and flail to find ways to justify it—both on the way up, and now on the way down. Useless post-hoc drivel LOL
I'm thinking we'll see more than a 1200 down drop this morning...the test will be after lunch to see if people move back into the market then, or it drops all day to a 4-5% fall.
I'm thinking we'll see more than a 1200 down drop this morning...the test will be after lunch to see if people move back into the market then, or it drops all day to a 4-5% fall.
on the other hand, if we keep the drop to less than 2% by noon and it's orderly...that might give some backbone to buyers.
amusing that the dollar is at near 20-year highs....no doubt driving the goldbugs to massive depression. I mean the highest inflation in 40 years, a falling stock market, europe at bigwar, american politics a merdefest of epic proportions, China about to lapse into a die-off because of COVID, all eyes on a error-prone Fed....and the dollar is soaring and gold flat.
Not easy, this investing thing.
LOL you really don’t know much of anything, do you? You sound like this is all a big surprise to you, like you have done essentially nothing other than get carried by the current, and flail to find ways to justify it—both on the way up, and now on the way down. Useless post-hoc drivel LOL
What’s your beat then? Wouldn’t you be the type that would’ve said money printer go brrr inflation can’t be stopped the fed can’t raise rates because of gov debt etc.
This is depressing but at this point gonna hold the line and buy in soon. My cash is a nice cushion but not needed.