Sally, you and the Troll are just laughing at your own ignorance. My HSGFX fund is up 14.26% YTD and if your portfolios mirror the S&P 500 you would be down 18.67%. As so many of you trolls mindlessly mimic “enjoy your loss.”
Try 10. Remember it took ~13 years after the Tech Bubble, ~16 years for the NASDAQ. Furthermore, the bureaucrats and the politicians removed any price discovery from the markets, blowing the all asset bubble to the highest valuations ever. The crazy behavior this cycle is well beyond anything in the Tech and Housing Bubbles. Why would anyone believe this period would have some benign conclusion?
Things are not anywhere near as overvalued and crazy as they were during the tech bubble. We will see 4800 again before the end of 2023, probably by mid next year. Probably not again in 2022, however.
😹
Valuations (long-term, full-cycle): still beyond any level observed in history prior to Aug 2020 Market internals (intermediate): still ragged and divergent; can certainly shift but not close at present Oversold conditions (tactical): adequately cleared but can't rule out bounces https://t.co/K1lImj7J3jpic.twitter.com/0RGyp5VUJG
— John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (@hussmanjp) June 7, 2022
Sally, you and the Troll are just laughing at your own ignorance. My HSGFX fund is up 16.72% YTD and if your portfolios mirror the S&P 500 you would be down 18.67%. As so many of you trolls mindlessly mimic “enjoy your loss.”
Previous post did not include HSGFX today’s gain, so YTD up 16.72%.
Sally, you and the Troll are just laughing at your own ignorance. My HSGFX fund is up 14.26% YTD and if your portfolios mirror the S&P 500 you would be down 18.67%. As so many of you trolls mindlessly mimic “enjoy your loss.”
You’ve had a few good months. Congratulations. Meanwhile many of us recently had a great decade while you were stuffing cash in your mattress. Laughing at my ignorance.
Sally, you and the Troll are just laughing at your own ignorance. My HSGFX fund is up 14.26% YTD and if your portfolios mirror the S&P 500 you would be down 18.67%. As so many of you trolls mindlessly mimic “enjoy your loss.”
You’ve had a few good months. Congratulations. Meanwhile many of us recently had a great decade while you were stuffing cash in your mattress. Laughing at my ignorance.
You’ve had a few good months. Congratulations. Meanwhile many of us recently had a great decade while you were stuffing cash in your mattress. Laughing at my ignorance.
I think Hussman has index put options at lower strike prices. I would buy on up market days. Since it is a mutual fund, you can wait to purchase near market close.
Try 10. Remember it took ~13 years after the Tech Bubble, ~16 years for the NASDAQ. Furthermore, the bureaucrats and the politicians removed any price discovery from the markets, blowing the all asset bubble to the highest valuations ever. The crazy behavior this cycle is well beyond anything in the Tech and Housing Bubbles. Why would anyone believe this period would have some benign conclusion?
Things are not anywhere near as overvalued and crazy as they were during the tech bubble. We will see 4800 again before the end of 2023, probably by mid next year. Probably not again in 2022, however.
More reality on stock market valuation:
"The sobering news is that even at its lowest point in mid-May, the S&P 500 index wasn't even close to being undervalued according to any of eight valuation models that my research shows have the best long-term track records." -@MktwHulberthttps://t.co/6oS6D96Zblpic.twitter.com/gEZKNQFJyo
I think Hussman has index put options at lower strike prices. I would buy on up market days. Since it is a mutual fund, you can wait to purchase near market close.
If there are any up market days.
If so, thinking of reducing my equity holdings by 1/2 and putting much of that into Hussman on the guess that the market will be bad for a while longer
The way I looked at it, I believe market valuations matter, unhinged politicians and the Fed can extend distortions, but only for so long. If the market continues higher HGSFX will be close to neutral, if down will be closer to inverse. That has been pretty much been the track record. My assumptions remains this will be a very severe and time extended bear market, the near mirror image of the incredible liquidity driven and low interest rate fueled bull market phase. Ten years of gains erased in two, new highs more than ten years down the road. I could be wrong of course, but 140 years of market history supports my view.
I think the assumption here is that we have some kind of mini-crash on Monday morning…I mean there is nothing but dismal sentiment out there and what is going to turn it exactly?
17x earnings is better than 22x earnings but is that going to attract many value guys? No.
In the meantime the dcf guys will assume 4% rates instead of 3% rates and sell like mad.
growth guys? Just trying to stay alive and not take new risk.
who is going to step in here and catch a falling knife?
only thing holding the market here is that earnings estimates are not dropping.
Against all my training I’m thinking of doing a material sell on Monday. As are a million other people all trying to get out the door at the same time. That’s about as bad as it gets.
maybe this is what capitulation feels like. When you can’t see a reason to own stocks.
which is the time to buy, I know.
venting.
merde.
the good news is that even after this dismal year we’re still up11-13% per year over 3-10 years. Playing with house money in a way.
I think the assumption here is that we have some kind of mini-crash on Monday morning…I mean there is nothing but dismal sentiment out there and what is going to turn it exactly?
17x earnings is better than 22x earnings but is that going to attract many value guys? No.
In the meantime the dcf guys will assume 4% rates instead of 3% rates and sell like mad.
growth guys? Just trying to stay alive and not take new risk.
who is going to step in here and catch a falling knife?
only thing holding the market here is that earnings estimates are not dropping.
Against all my training I’m thinking of doing a material sell on Monday. As are a million other people all trying to get out the door at the same time. That’s about as bad as it gets.
maybe this is what capitulation feels like. When you can’t see a reason to own stocks.
which is the time to buy, I know.
venting.
merde.
the good news is that even after this dismal year we’re still up11-13% per year over 3-10 years. Playing with house money in a way.
Please sell everything. If we hit 20% down from ATH again, I'm buying. Even though I think there's a fair probability of hitting 30% down from ATH over the next 3 months.
I think the assumption here is that we have some kind of mini-crash on Monday morning…I mean there is nothing but dismal sentiment out there and what is going to turn it exactly?
17x earnings is better than 22x earnings but is that going to attract many value guys? No.
In the meantime the dcf guys will assume 4% rates instead of 3% rates and sell like mad.
growth guys? Just trying to stay alive and not take new risk.
who is going to step in here and catch a falling knife?
only thing holding the market here is that earnings estimates are not dropping.
Against all my training I’m thinking of doing a material sell on Monday. As are a million other people all trying to get out the door at the same time. That’s about as bad as it gets.
maybe this is what capitulation feels like. When you can’t see a reason to own stocks.
which is the time to buy, I know.
venting.
merde.
the good news is that even after this dismal year we’re still up11-13% per year over 3-10 years. Playing with house money in a way.
Please sell everything. If we hit 20% down from ATH again, I'm buying. Even though I think there's a fair probability of hitting 30% down from ATH over the next 3 months.
heh that's the fighting spirit. Certainly buying when 20% down is often the right move.
Just to be clear...I'm at around 63% in stocks now. If I do something on Monday I'd go down to 58% or so.
I'm thinking about using the 5/10/20 day moving average to signal when to move back in anything I sell.
The problem for the next few days is that the conventional wisdom was that inflation has peaked. The bond market even thought that. But now it's looking like as long as oil and gas keep rising....inflation won't come down. And with refineries at full strength now and Russia starting to dig in for the long haul....why would gasoline go down?
So rates will have to rise more than we thought. It's that surprise that is so dangerous right now. Stocks hate bad surprises.