Down goes the Dow

Of course it's gambling.

You put your money down and then you either win or lose and it's out of your control.

So instead of a pension, you get a 401k that the financial industry whittles away with all sorts of fees over your entire career, and then you take what's left and hand it over to an insurance company, which then determines what your income will be, surely looking to make money.

This is better than a pension?

do you think no one made money on those pensions? Of course they did.

all in all 401ks have worked well, esp the last 10 years, since fees have been whittled down. Now almost everyone can get to a low cost life cycle fund that should serve them well.

6-8% in a life cycle fund for 30 years of work will likely net a retiring worker hundreds of thousands more than old pensions, should past performance repeat. Plus, 401ks can be handed down to the next generation and pensions can't.

But sure, the risk is now on the worker, which is an interesting problem since people tend to be terrible investors.

How is a pension different? You’re also handing over part of your income for someone else to manage. Surely you’re aware of the pension funds that have gone belly up leaving their investors in the lurch.

21 days since the lows but we're less than 4% above them now in the premarket and today looks like one of those -3% days. So this little journey of hope of mine may be coming to an end.

I'm feeling the urge to throw everything over the side, so I know millions of people will do that today. Look out.

That said, earnings estimates are still climbing or at least stable.

1/2 hour to opening and it ain't looking too good

hmm...the 10 year yield is stable even after this hot CPI print....that's a very positive thing.

the bond market tends to be less manic than the stock market and more analytical...if the bond market keeps saying inflation is ending then that is very meaningful. And the bond market seems to be saying inflation is ending.

So bond rates remain low. Is that what you are saying?

That's not a good thing.

Inflation is what 6% to 8% per year.

One year bond is paying 2.5%.

Equities are tanking.

This does not seem to be a good place to be in.

Costs skyrocketing with no safe place to put your money that can keep up with costs.

So put it in equities and risk losing more in a day (the recent pattern) than you can earn on a bond in a year

the point is that stocks are tanking today because of fears of inflation and how the Fed will slow the economy. A slower economy is bad for stocks.

The bond market, however, is saying 'inflation? whatever no biggie it's fading.'

So if the bond market is right, the Fed can opt not to raise rates too much, which would be good for stocks. Which should lend support to stocks in the short term, once today's panic receeds.

Good investors will look at today and say 'hmmm...what can I do TODAY that will benefit me in the year 2027?'

Bad investors will look at today and scream 'get me out of here ASAP I can't take it anymore!'

Aren't you supposed to tier out of stocks when you retire, and just buy index funds instead of trying to get rich quick from speculating like TSLA and BTC? I remember the rule of thumb used to be your age=% of bonds in your portfolio. So at age 65 you should be 65% bonds 35% stocks? If you dollar cost averaged a total market index fund for 20-30 years then you'd easily have millions by retirement.

pretty great what this period is doing to the national debt.

it's being reduced by inflation by 8% per year...but we can still borrow at 2-3% per year.

All while fed tax revenue is soaring beyond all precedent and GDP is growing.

The result will be a debt to GDP ratio well lower than it has been. And that's the key number.

Assuming people keep lending the nation money....this is a huge recovery for the US. We talk a lot about the damage the national debt can cause....well that problem is starting to recede because of what's going on right now.

yeah mostly but the problem is that people live til 95 now so generally speaking the old rules might be too conservative now. We used to die in our 70s so we didn't need to preserve our nest egg so well...another 10-20 years of life have changed the math and required more aggressive investing.

I guess this is the 'good' news. That core inflation continues to trend down for the fourth month in a row. That's not bad.

Council of Economic Advisers
@WhiteHouseCEA
Year-over-year headline inflation rose by 8.6 percent, the fastest pace since 1981. Core inflation rose by 6.0 percent, lower than its yearly rate in February, March, and April of this year. 12/

Here we go again.

S+P 500 now down 17.5% YTD.

Every investment I have -- even gold and silver, traditionally good places to be when the market is tanking -- is down.

I had a bounce back a few weeks ago and that is all gone now.

Lowest point yet.

Now if we could only buy a safe bond or CD that was paying 6%.

Ibonds. Not a fixed rate though. And there's a lockup.

well now the 10 year yield is in fact starting to move up so we're all in a merde sandwich.

Cheers.

ok I just threw a chunk of stocks over the side.

I know it's the wrong thing to do but I did it anyway.

Being human is hard.

Anyway, if I'm scared enough to do that then so are millions and millions of people, feeling that fear all at the same time. Usually not wise to go along with mass panic.

Can't buy them thru Schwab

Tis better to panic earlier than to do so later.

I am close to pulling the trigger.

Cannot psychologically watch all my income from other one time sources via retirement deals this year with companies I had some ownership in be fully wiped out by investment losses in the 1st 6 months of the year.