Going back to 1970s (using @Bloomberg historical crude price index), quite rare to see oil prices spike at this fast of an annual rate (orange) and not have a recession associated with it (late 1980s and early/mid-2000s were exceptions) pic.twitter.com/As2mnWEVH3
The Fed began easing cycles in Jul 1981, Jun 1989, Jan 2001, and Sep 2007. Easy money coincided with the 1981-82, 1990, 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 bear markets.
Once investors become risk-averse, easy money isn't enough. Better to gauge the uniformity of market internals directly. pic.twitter.com/0gPyMnTRgn
— John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (@hussmanjp) June 9, 2022
I have become a bear. Been reading Dalio's Big Debt Crises book he published back in 2020, and it is pretty much spelling out exactly what's going on now. Gas prices are about $5.20/gal here... That's just simply too damn high, and expectations are that prices continue to climb for awhile. We are just starting to experience the pain from all this. Things are going to get significantly worse over the next 6 months I think as the effects of high fuel prices permeate the larger economy and people run out of spending money. Will be 2023 before we hit 4800 again, and I do think we'll see sub 3900 again too, very possibly a new YTD low.
Furthermore, apparently students with loans have pretty much not been making any payments since covid hit. Whenever they lose this luxury, which will likely be soon, there are going to be a lot of people with a lot less spending money. I know people with monthly payments of 400-900 dollars. That is very significant for most people.
Very thankful my job is about as safe and stable as it gets (knock on wood). Only problem is I'm pretty much guaranteed a measly 2-3% raise each year, which means I'm losing money with inflation being what it is. I have a commute on top of this, so higher gas prices hurt me too.
Things are not as good as they appear at present. We are at just the start of this recession.
I have become a bear. Been reading Dalio's Big Debt Crises book he published back in 2020, and it is pretty much spelling out exactly what's going on now. Gas prices are about $5.20/gal here... That's just simply too damn high, and expectations are that prices continue to climb for awhile. We are just starting to experience the pain from all this. Things are going to get significantly worse over the next 6 months I think as the effects of high fuel prices permeate the larger economy and people run out of spending money. Will be 2023 before we hit 4800 again, and I do think we'll see sub 3900 again too, very possibly a new YTD low.
Furthermore, apparently students with loans have pretty much not been making any payments since covid hit. Whenever they lose this luxury, which will likely be soon, there are going to be a lot of people with a lot less spending money. I know people with monthly payments of 400-900 dollars. That is very significant for most people.
Very thankful my job is about as safe and stable as it gets (knock on wood). Only problem is I'm pretty much guaranteed a measly 2-3% raise each year, which means I'm losing money with inflation being what it is. I have a commute on top of this, so higher gas prices hurt me too.
Things are not as good as they appear at present. We are at just the start of this recession.
Dalio does nothing but sell "USA bad, China is future," which turned out to kinda age like milk. Who could have guessed.
Everything else you stated is kind of just noise as long as people are employed. Inflation and the like will pretty much always be pegged at the "bitching about it" phase as long as people are gainfully employed. The concern is that employers have to raise wages so high that they take too hard a hit on revenue and have to do layoffs. That's what happened in the 70s
I have become a bear. Been reading Dalio's Big Debt Crises book he published back in 2020, and it is pretty much spelling out exactly what's going on now. Gas prices are about $5.20/gal here... That's just simply too damn high, and expectations are that prices continue to climb for awhile. We are just starting to experience the pain from all this. Things are going to get significantly worse over the next 6 months I think as the effects of high fuel prices permeate the larger economy and people run out of spending money. Will be 2023 before we hit 4800 again, and I do think we'll see sub 3900 again too, very possibly a new YTD low.
Furthermore, apparently students with loans have pretty much not been making any payments since covid hit. Whenever they lose this luxury, which will likely be soon, there are going to be a lot of people with a lot less spending money. I know people with monthly payments of 400-900 dollars. That is very significant for most people.
Very thankful my job is about as safe and stable as it gets (knock on wood). Only problem is I'm pretty much guaranteed a measly 2-3% raise each year, which means I'm losing money with inflation being what it is. I have a commute on top of this, so higher gas prices hurt me too.
Things are not as good as they appear at present. We are at just the start of this recession.
Dalio does nothing but sell "USA bad, China is future," which turned out to kinda age like milk. Who could have guessed.
Everything else you stated is kind of just noise as long as people are employed. Inflation and the like will pretty much always be pegged at the "bitching about it" phase as long as people are gainfully employed. The concern is that employers have to raise wages so high that they take too hard a hit on revenue and have to do layoffs. That's what happened in the 70s
Ridiculous.
Inflation is real and devestating to hundreds of millions of Americans.
Not really. Retirement funding hopefully is done over decades and the stock market has typically been quite good over such a time frame.
Yeah it is.
Would you want a job that pays you no salary at all but ties your compensation totally to market returns?
Some years you earn nothing. Indeed, some years you owe your employer money because the market tanked.
It's a scam
roughly speaking, you simply need to take a longer term perspective.
In general terms, you will make 6-8% from a diversifed portfolio of stocks and bonds over the decades.
But do you take out 6-8% every year in retirement? No. You take out just 4%.
So you make 6-8%, take out 4%. The remaining 2-4% stays in the account for the bad years to make up for the years when you lose money. That way you don't deplete the account.
People who don't invest enough, people who get scared away easily like this...that's why there is so little intergenerational wealth transfer in this country. Any family that has been here for 50+ years should have a permanent multi-million dollar family endowment. From investing and hanging in there. Families that have been here 100+ years should all have hundreds of millions or even billions. But hardly any families do. Why? Main reason is being scared and not investing. Don't be that kind of family.
Dalio does nothing but sell "USA bad, China is future," which turned out to kinda age like milk. Who could have guessed.
Everything else you stated is kind of just noise as long as people are employed. Inflation and the like will pretty much always be pegged at the "bitching about it" phase as long as people are gainfully employed. The concern is that employers have to raise wages so high that they take too hard a hit on revenue and have to do layoffs. That's what happened in the 70s
Ridiculous.
Inflation is real and devestating to hundreds of millions of Americans.
Would you want a job that pays you no salary at all but ties your compensation totally to market returns?
Some years you earn nothing. Indeed, some years you owe your employer money because the market tanked.
It's a scam
roughly speaking, you simply need to take a longer term perspective.
In general terms, you will make 6-8% from a diversifed portfolio of stocks and bonds over the decades.
But do you take out 6-8% every year in retirement? No. You take out just 4%.
So you make 6-8%, take out 4%. The remaining 2-4% stays in the account for the bad years to make up for the years when you lose money. That way you don't deplete the account.
People who don't invest enough, people who get scared away easily like this...that's why there is so little intergenerational wealth transfer in this country. Any family that has been here for 50+ years should have a permanent multi-million dollar family endowment. From investing and hanging in there. Families that have been here 100+ years should all have hundreds of millions or even billions. But hardly any families do. Why? Main reason is being scared and not investing. Don't be that kind of family.
roughly speaking, you simply need to take a longer term perspective.
In general terms, you will make 6-8% from a diversifed portfolio of stocks and bonds over the decades.
But do you take out 6-8% every year in retirement? No. You take out just 4%.
So you make 6-8%, take out 4%. The remaining 2-4% stays in the account for the bad years to make up for the years when you lose money. That way you don't deplete the account.
People who don't invest enough, people who get scared away easily like this...that's why there is so little intergenerational wealth transfer in this country. Any family that has been here for 50+ years should have a permanent multi-million dollar family endowment. From investing and hanging in there. Families that have been here 100+ years should all have hundreds of millions or even billions. But hardly any families do. Why? Main reason is being scared and not investing. Don't be that kind of family.
roughly speaking, you simply need to take a longer term perspective.
In general terms, you will make 6-8% from a diversifed portfolio of stocks and bonds over the decades.
But do you take out 6-8% every year in retirement? No. You take out just 4%.
So you make 6-8%, take out 4%. The remaining 2-4% stays in the account for the bad years to make up for the years when you lose money. That way you don't deplete the account.
People who don't invest enough, people who get scared away easily like this...that's why there is so little intergenerational wealth transfer in this country. Any family that has been here for 50+ years should have a permanent multi-million dollar family endowment. From investing and hanging in there. Families that have been here 100+ years should all have hundreds of millions or even billions. But hardly any families do. Why? Main reason is being scared and not investing. Don't be that kind of family.
Why should retirement income be tied to gambling?
well it's not really gambling.
but if you don't want to have the risk on your head, you are perfectly free to buy an annuity and transfer the risk to an insurance company. If past trends continue, that means you will never get rich but you will get a steady, guaranteed check every month. And the varying stock and bond markets won't affect you.