2600 bro wrote:
joed|rtty wrote:
Data from South Africa is garbage. Data from UK is reliable, but what do you mean cases in UK are peaking (they increased 64% last week and show no signs of abating)? It will be weeks before we have a clear picture on hospitalizations and deaths and the different outcomes between the previously infected and the vaccinated. You are reaching at straws. The truth is nobody knows at this point, but the fact that prominent politicians that are fully vaxxed and boosted are having breakthrough infections that are symptomatic should not go without notice.
We know you discount all data that does not confirm your priors.
Here's good evidence the UK wave is peaking. Note the nonlinear scale. Testing rates have stayed even.
https://twitter.com/AlastairGrant4/status/1473397894971600902
That is a BS post. 7-day moving average case numbers for the dates he posted:
December 13th - 51,172 cases
December 14th - 53,129 cases
December 15th - 57,022 cases
December 16th - 62,370 cases
December 17th - 67,397 cases
December 18th - 72,564 cases
December 19th - 77,411 cases
December 20th - 82,700 cases
December 21st - 87,200 cases
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/And his post claims declining numbers, so something is not adding up.
For the US, they are predicting about 140 million Omicron cases in the next two months (we've probably had close to 200,000 cases to date in the US in the past 22 months), so even if the hospitalization rate is 1/3 that of delta, the speed with which it will run through the population will impact things (that would end up being roughly 2.5 times the rate of hospitalizations in terms of hospitalizations per day if the 1/3 ratio holds). Hopefully it is milder than that prediction. Almost every COVID case starts with mild symptoms. The fact that triple vaccinated individuals are having symptoms at all is an indication it may not be as mild as some are portraying it to be. With vaccines not really working against infection, it will likely be rough.