Maybe I can get me that Alfa after all. Red, AWD, black interior.
New recovery high today - highest SP500 since around May 5.
Today growth +3.1%
Today Value: +0.9%
This may be one of those hinge times...value has been dominating growth, but growth might be coming back. Do we pile back into tech now? And will Seattle come back to the thread? miss that guy.
Honestly, this is the second post i read in just checking in for a second.
I miss you, too, big guy!
My take is that I was all set and forged the plan as follows: Sell on the rebounds because they won't last. Two steps down, one step up, repeat....
Luckily I hesitated. And one analyst i read even went so far as to say that it was too late to sell now. That was a week ago.
Which is all just my way of saying when something becomes so obvious to make sense to even me, it's too late, and do the opposite.
So I'm holding at this point and even slowly buying back the shares I sold on the way down. No more selling. And yes, I'm buying back tech, and Nasdaq 100.
Also, many funds were dumping positions in April and May, which seems to have stopped. Which is good.
Tiger Global Management’s brutal year is getting even tougher, with losses at the firm’s high-profile hedge fund ballooning to 52% through May. Tiger reported the drop, which extends a 44% loss recorded through April, in a note to its investors Thursday. The firm’s long-only fund lost 20.6% in May, bringing its losses for the year to 61.7%. The losses prompted Tiger to cut its management fee by 0.5% through December 2023 in both its hedge fund and long-only fund.
these university endowments who hire 'analysts' and pay them $400,000 to pick hedge funds are a crime against education.
There's a humble gent in Ohio who can beat the market almost every year since the 90s, but I heard he's not interested in selling such know how
these university endowments who hire 'analysts' and pay them $400,000 to pick hedge funds are a crime against education.
There's a humble gent in Ohio who can beat the market almost every year since the 90s, but I heard he's not interested in selling such know how
That humble gent from Ohio is wasting his genius doing computer consulting. Lou Gehrig went 56 consequtive games with a hit. That is considered an extraordinary feat. Our beloved Ohioan was one shy of going 33 YEARS without a defeat.
I'm sure you all have heard the term 'buggy whip industry.' It usually designates a business in decline that should not be entered, because the future for it is so dim. Like horsewhips when cars were starting to appear in mass numbers.
Turns out the energy companies thought oil and coal were buggy whip industries, and stopped investing in them. Which has brought us to this point...not enough crude production, not enough coal mining, not enough gasoline refining. The invisible hand failed.
The irony, of course, is that buggy whip industries can be very profitable, because demand doesn't go to zero, competitors exit the field or reduce their commitment to it.
Like horsewhip companies in the dawn of the car....energy companies are still raking it in.
WSJ:
Meanwhile, investment in (coal) mining has dwindled in the midst of expectations that coal would keep losing market share to renewable sources, such as wind farms, and cleaner-burning natural gas. That has left inventories low.
Simon was born in 1941 and so of course grew up worshipping Mantle, not Dimaggio.
So did Paul Simon see the same grace of Eleanor Roosevelt in DiMaggio? The songwriter's favorite Yankee was actually Mickey Mantle, and according to Wikipedia, when Dick Cavett asked why Mantle's name wasn't used instead of DiMaggio, Simon replied "It's about syllables, Dick. It's about how many beats there are."
Simon was born in 1941 and so of course grew up worshipping Mantle, not Dimaggio.
So did Paul Simon see the same grace of Eleanor Roosevelt in DiMaggio? The songwriter's favorite Yankee was actually Mickey Mantle, and according to Wikipedia, when Dick Cavett asked why Mantle's name wasn't used instead of DiMaggio, Simon replied "It's about syllables, Dick. It's about how many beats there are."
ah I misunderstood. I thought you were saying that Mantle had the hitting streak.
But I also never heard the story about the song - good one.
“My take is that I was all set and forged the plan as follows: Sell on the rebounds because they won't last. Two steps down, one step up, repeat....”
That was the experience of 3/2000-10/2002 and 10/2007-3/2009. This current set-up is fundamentally worse. One can always hope for a different outcome.
SPY to 350?
On the SPY $320-350 summer, which would correspond to pre-pandemic high on EPS downgrades (Morgan Stanley view). SPY $210-230 late fall/winter on Fed tightening, persistent inflation, and frugal Congress speak.
weird how we keep getting one strong economic report after the next, earnings ests are steady, but we're basically on recession watch. People think the Fed is Godzilla, willing and able to destroy all that it sees. Will be fascinating to see how this plays out.