I feel your pain. I once ran a 3 minute mile and literally no one believes me! Idk why, it's not like it was that hard. I assume most of the pros do it all the time
who was that American in the 60s or 70s who claimed he ran a 16 minute four-mile run and never backed down?
it doesn't matter whether the benchmark is the Dow or SP500 or whatever. Beating any benchmark like that every year is next to impossible.
So, no...not a particularly relevant thing to say. The only relevant thing to say is 'Flagpole is almost certainly wrong.'
Depends on what you use as the benchmark.
For instance, I'm pretty sure anyone could beat the Hussman fund 33 out of 34 years.
ZING!
Interestingly Hussman’s June market commentary was in my email inbox this morning. I know The Professor won’t read this because he is typical of the inexperienced investor, deluded by the arrogance of recent gains, trapped in a bear market. Other posters may find this historical narrative helpful.
Despite the year-to-date decline in the S&P 500, the most reliable valuation measures we monitor remain at levels never observed in market history prior to August 2020. Meanwhile, market internals remain ragged and divergent,...
who was that American in the 60s or 70s who claimed he ran a 16 minute four-mile run and never backed down?
Sounds like something Gerry Lindgren said
Gerry Lindgren ran a 12:50 3 mile on a dirt track, in a dual college track meet, by himself, in 1965. Not 4:00/mile for four miles, but a much better athlete than most of the present American pros.
Gerry Lindgren ran a 12:50 3 mile on a dirt track, in a dual college track meet, by himself, in 1965. Not 4:00/mile for four miles, but a much better athlete than most of the present American pros.
Igy,
I think we all accept that Lindgren was a phenomenal distance runner. But we also generally understand that he was - ahem - liberal with tales of his exploits, exaggerating a wee bit from time to time... The odd thing is that he really didn't need to exaggerate, since his honest accomplishments were already massively impressive. And yet...
I think we all accept that Lindgren was a phenomenal distance runner. But we also generally understand that he was - ahem - liberal with tales of his exploits, exaggerating a wee bit from time to time... The odd thing is that he really didn't need to exaggerate, since his honest accomplishments were already massively impressive. And yet...
For instance, I'm pretty sure anyone could beat the Hussman fund 33 out of 34 years.
ZING!
Interestingly Hussman’s June market commentary was in my email inbox this morning. I know The Professor won’t read this because he is typical of the inexperienced investor, deluded by the arrogance of recent gains, trapped in a bear market. Other posters may find this historical narrative helpful.
Don’t get why Hussmann is worth reading, he’s done terrible historically. If you do well 1 year out of 15, that’s really bad. The whole point is to preserve or increase wealth/value and he’s failed miserably at it. I don’t know what else needs to be said.
Crypto is def is a little bull trap, waiting for despair and lower lows (BTC 23k could be bottom) before getting in.
Seems like China is posturing to invade Taiwan towards the new year, that could be the final catalyst for blood in the streets.
Interestingly Hussman’s June market commentary was in my email inbox this morning. I know The Professor won’t read this because he is typical of the inexperienced investor, deluded by the arrogance of recent gains, trapped in a bear market. Other posters may find this historical narrative helpful.
Thanks, Iggy! Deluded by arrogance indeed. My signature fund is now worth about 69% of what it was at inception and our net expense ratio is a paltry 1.23%. You get what you pay for. Let’s see SARK match that!
For the record, we do have a lot of inexperienced investors after most of the knowledgeable ones bailed. I’m sure those who hung in there will eventually reap their just rewards. Just keep reading my commentaries for more of my insights into successful investing. What could go wrong?
so we've had a batch of fairly strong economic numbers come across, which has driven the 10 year from 2.7% to 2.93% and that has dragged stocks back down. The old 'good news is bad news' problem. As we all now fear inflation (and the Fed's response) more than we fear missing strong economic growth.
Let's hope the 10 year moves around in the 2.7-3.3 zone. that seems to be a healthy place for stocks and bonds.
On the good news front, the lockdown in shanghai is over-ish, which should make supply chains sing and move along better.
My signature fund is now worth about 69% of what it was at inception and our net expense ratio is a paltry 1.23%. You get what you pay for. Let’s see SARK match that!
I'm not sure you understand what a fund like this is designed to do...
Do you think there are a lot of investors treating HSGFX as a long term buy and hold? Is that what you think Igy has been doing, hanging on for dear life for inception?
There are a great many investment instruments that go down in value most of the time. They all exist for a reason.
absolutely. Hussman runs a bear fund. Not a short-only fund, but one that must hold its value or even go up at times of market weakness. There is a real place for that in some portfolios as a hedge. Hussman must keep that stance. If he loses when the market goes down, he will lose AUM quickly. People invest in it as a hedge.
Igy and maybe Hussman would say 'it will be a long fund when valuations suggest it should be' but that's theory not reality.
I think we all accept that Lindgren was a phenomenal distance runner. But we also generally understand that he was - ahem - liberal with tales of his exploits, exaggerating a wee bit from time to time... The odd thing is that he really didn't need to exaggerate, since his honest accomplishments were already massively impressive. And yet...
Igy maybe was there in person.
Really just a comment on his historic significance at the time. Took Billy Mills to a world record photo finish at the AAU six mile in 1965. Unfortunately an unstable personality led to a series of missteps athletically and personally. Exaggerations just one of them.
Interestingly Hussman’s June market commentary was in my email inbox this morning. I know The Professor won’t read this because he is typical of the inexperienced investor, deluded by the arrogance of recent gains, trapped in a bear market. Other posters may find this historical narrative helpful.
Thanks, Iggy! Deluded by arrogance indeed. My signature fund is now worth about 69% of what it was at inception and our net expense ratio is a paltry 1.23%. You get what you pay for. Let’s see SARK match that!
For the record, we do have a lot of inexperienced investors after most of the knowledgeable ones bailed. I’m sure those who hung in there will eventually reap their just rewards. Just keep reading my commentaries for more of my insights into successful investing. What could go wrong?
“Measured from what was likely the bubble peak in January, I expect negative S&P 500 total returns over the coming 10-12 year period, with an interim market loss on the order of 60-70%. Indeed, measured from the recent peak, it would not be surprising for the S&P 500 to lag Treasury bills for 20 years. All of this should be viewed as full-cycle context. Short- and intermediate-term market behavior will still be heavily affected by shifts between speculative and risk-averse psychology, which we infer from the uniformity or divergence of market internals. It’s in periods of risk-aversion that extreme valuations will suddenly matter most.”
—John Hussman
And added to the Troll’s list of blocked registered handles. 😹
some good news filtering out that should help on the inflation and stability front....
Shanghai lockdowns ending
maybe maybe maybe ukrainian grains leaving port.
Lavrov: Putin, Erdogan tentatively agree on unblocking Ukrainian ports. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the two leaders agreed during a phone call on May 30 that as soon as Turkey clears the Ukrainian ports of mines, cargo ships will be able to leave.
Interestingly Hussman’s June market commentary was in my email inbox this morning. I know The Professor won’t read this because he is typical of the inexperienced investor, deluded by the arrogance of recent gains, trapped in a bear market. Other posters may find this historical narrative helpful.
Don’t get why Hussmann is worth reading, he’s done terrible historically. If you do well 1 year out of 15, that’s really bad. The whole point is to preserve or increase wealth/value and he’s failed miserably at it. I don’t know what else needs to be said.
Crypto is def is a little bull trap, waiting for despair and lower lows (BTC 23k could be bottom) before getting in.
Seems like China is posturing to invade Taiwan towards the new year, that could be the final catalyst for blood in the streets.
How all those aggressive investments working? Meanwhile HSGFX up 13.28% YTD.
How all those aggressive investments working? Meanwhile HSGFX up 13.28% YTD.
And down 30% since inception. 🍒
I have not been invested during that time period. I am up quite nicely, thank you. You could be invested in the QQQ, which has been horrible this year and about to get a lot worse.
