I don't think flagpole is lying...he is making some kind of a fundamental error in judging performance, and likely we will never know what that error is. I think he believes he is telling the truth. Could be adding in contributions....my best guess is some weird math he does with dividends or cap gains. Maybe he counts capital gains as return, without understanding NAV of his fund goes down when he gets the cap gains.
A test will be how his 2022 % return falls out after December 2022 cap gains payouts. Those payouts will be massive and if Flagpole gives himself some kind of performance boost from them we'll know that is the culprit.
The guy just lies a lot, if you pay attention to his stories he's got plenty of tells. Just the fact that he's constantly proclaiming how he's never told a lie is a big red flag, people who are actually honest don't do that. It's something that serial liars do. He also tries to make his lies more believable by not portraying himself as too perfect, ie, he only beat the DOW 32 out of 33 years (hey I'm not that good!), he's never told a lie as an adult (hey nobody's perfect!) When he gets called out he tries to deflect, accusing everyone of just being jealous. Look what just happened when you asked him to explain how he calculated his returns, he made some long rambling post where called you a yahoo and refused to answer the question. If you've ever dealt with a serial liar (I've had the displeasure of working a few) these behaviors are all pretty common. Where you may be partially correct is that Flagpole probably doesn't recognize what he's doing as lying, for people like this it's usually rooted in some deep seated psychological issue, maybe when he was a kid he learned to gain approval by embellishing stories about his accomplishments. Only his therapist would know for sure and it's pretty clear he doesn't have one.
What a bunch of BS.
1) You know who also says they've never told a lie in their adult life? Someone who has never told a lie in his adult life.
2) OF COURSE I told some lies before I became an adult. You have to learn to be truthful and that it is important. If I didn't ever tell a lie as a child, that would mean I had a disorder of some sort. What a weird point for you to try to make.
3) I've gone down the road of talking minutia with people in this thread before, and before it was FINALLY discovered that I was telling the truth, I was called a liar and stupid and a whole bunch of mean ugly nasty things while sitting on the bench there. I looked at the seeing-eye dog. Not going to do that again. Too many here don't know what they're talking about, don't know how to look up returns, don't know their a$$es from a hole in the ground.
4) No embellishing of stories on my part. If I wanted to embellish a story on a thread about the stock market, I wouldn't be talking about passively investing in mutual funds. I would not admit that I don't research funds before I buy them. I would not admit that I am not a smart investor. Man, I'm not that good at embellishing, I guess! If I were wanting to do that, I would lie about buying X when it was dirt cheap and then selling it when it was worth a ton and that I did that over and over again because I knew how to pick individual stocks and when to buy and sell them.
I am sorry that you haven't done as well as I have in the market over the years.
You keep saying that, without knowing the first thing about me or the other people you brag that to. Maybe I beat the Dow 34 years out of 33.
Nah. You're clearly upset that you haven't done as well as I have. Don't use me as your measuring stick, brother. Invest what you need to to have the retirement that YOU want. It's not a competition.
The guy just lies a lot, if you pay attention to his stories he's got plenty of tells. Just the fact that he's constantly proclaiming how he's never told a lie is a big red flag, people who are actually honest don't do that. It's something that serial liars do. He also tries to make his lies more believable by not portraying himself as too perfect, ie, he only beat the DOW 32 out of 33 years (hey I'm not that good!), he's never told a lie as an adult (hey nobody's perfect!) When he gets called out he tries to deflect, accusing everyone of just being jealous. Look what just happened when you asked him to explain how he calculated his returns, he made some long rambling post where called you a yahoo and refused to answer the question. If you've ever dealt with a serial liar (I've had the displeasure of working a few) these behaviors are all pretty common. Where you may be partially correct is that Flagpole probably doesn't recognize what he's doing as lying, for people like this it's usually rooted in some deep seated psychological issue, maybe when he was a kid he learned to gain approval by embellishing stories about his accomplishments. Only his therapist would know for sure and it's pretty clear he doesn't have one.
I am pretty sure he has had MANY therapists throughout his lifetime but I am pretty sure most have quit out of exasperation or by committing suicide (am kidding). Also, what you say about honest people not needing to say all the time that they never lie is so true. Only people who make up stuff all the time are compelled to insist that they never lie. It is like they know they are not honest and need to say that all the time so they will feel better about not being honest.
1) I've not had ONE therapist let alone "many."
2) I point out that I have never lied in my adult life (not even white lies...if you ask me if you look fat in that shirt and you do, I will tell you that you do) because it is rare. People accept the mantra that "everybody lies." Well, no, they don't. I DO add that I haven't told a lie in my adult life because anyone without a disorder lies as a child. It is healthy even to do that. Being truthful is a learned behavior, and you have to believe it is important and accept it as part of your life philosophy to not lie. I see no benefit to lying. It just erodes integrity, and even if you are not caught in the lie, YOU know if you told a lie or not, and I'd rather just not have that negative feeling about lying. That said, it is POSSIBLE I might have to lie if there were a moral imperative. I am not against lying under ALL circumstances. As an example, if a person ran into my house and told me that someone named Dave was on a murderous rampage and that he was after them, if Dave then yelled across the street to me to ask if I had seen (and then he described this person), I would say, "no", and I would not feel bad about that.
You keep saying that, without knowing the first thing about me or the other people you brag that to. Maybe I beat the Dow 34 years out of 33.
Nah. You're clearly upset that you haven't done as well as I have. Don't use me as your measuring stick, brother. Invest what you need to to have the retirement that YOU want. It's not a competition.
The bigger question here is why you aren't selling your services. A portfolio strategy that beats the market 33 out of 34 years would be worth billions. Tens of billions really.
Well maybe you want to tell us how you calculate portfolio returns? Do you get annual numbers from Morningstar or use quicken or what?
One thing you guys don't really think about is how well the market has performed over the last 33 years. On average the well-diversified investor is doubling his or her porfolio about every 6.5 years. Also, Flagpole always talks about how he has stystematically invested and without fail each and every year. If Flagpole was just matching the market over the last 33 years he would be worth millions. BUT, having beaten the market 32 out of 33 years puts his returns in the stratosphere. If he had really done that well he would be worth north of $100 million.
Um...NOPE! What are you smoking? I see your non-mathematician coming out.
Example time:
To keep it simple, let's say an index has done 11% annually since 1989. While technically with one bad year in there, an investor could actually overall LOSE to that index during that time, but let's be more reasonable and say this unnamed investor brought in 11.2% return during this time.
So, you think that if instead of 11% return an investor got an 11.2% return annually over that time that the difference would be from a few million dollars for the index to over $100 million? Dude, stop with your nonsense.
You're clearly upset that you haven't done as well as I have.
Am I? No, I am not. That is not truthful.
Well, I observe that you are. Now, if you truly are not, then what I've said about you is a falsehood and not a lie. For it to be a lie, a person has to KNOW it is not truthful or BELIEVE it is not truthful and then state it anyway.
Nah. You're clearly upset that you haven't done as well as I have. Don't use me as your measuring stick, brother. Invest what you need to to have the retirement that YOU want. It's not a competition.
The bigger question here is why you aren't selling your services. A portfolio strategy that beats the market 33 out of 34 years would be worth billions. Tens of billions really.
No, that is not even a small question let alone a big question. Here are the reasons why:
1) I do not pretend to know how to pick mutual funds other than that you should diversify and then either go more conservative or aggressive depending on your preference and station in life.
2) I have no special ability or insight with regard to picking mutual funds, so there is nothing there to sell.
3) Past performance is not indicative of future performance. So far this year, I am getting killed by the Dow. For all I know, it will happen again next year and the year after that. Doesn't really matter to me at this point. I will no longer be making an income, but my wife will, and we will still invest as we have been for the next 5 years until she retires (even though we don't need to at this point). Technically I could take it all out and put it in CDs and cash if I wanted to. I no longer need any returns on that money.
4) There is no strategy. Random picking of funds in the different sectors of the market that I want them to be in and then next to randomly deciding how much money to put in said funds or whether to buy additional funds in other sectors each year.
5) Even if I felt I had something to sell here, it doesn't sound like that fun of a job. So, nah just based on that alone.
The guy just lies a lot, if you pay attention to his stories he's got plenty of tells. Just the fact that he's constantly proclaiming how he's never told a lie is a big red flag, people who are actually honest don't do that. It's something that serial liars do. He also tries to make his lies more believable by not portraying himself as too perfect, ie, he only beat the DOW 32 out of 33 years (hey I'm not that good!), he's never told a lie as an adult (hey nobody's perfect!) When he gets called out he tries to deflect, accusing everyone of just being jealous. Look what just happened when you asked him to explain how he calculated his returns, he made some long rambling post where called you a yahoo and refused to answer the question. If you've ever dealt with a serial liar (I've had the displeasure of working a few) these behaviors are all pretty common. Where you may be partially correct is that Flagpole probably doesn't recognize what he's doing as lying, for people like this it's usually rooted in some deep seated psychological issue, maybe when he was a kid he learned to gain approval by embellishing stories about his accomplishments. Only his therapist would know for sure and it's pretty clear he doesn't have one.
Been on these boards a LONG time. Have pretty much the exact same thoughts. Flagpole Willy at times does offer solid advice, but there also appears to be an almost manic form of narcissism/insecurity inside of him also. Not someone you really want to pay too much attention to... Sorry, FP. Just my opinion.
Well, you could not be more wrong (well, other than the not someone you want to pay much attention to...I don't believe I'm more special than anyone else where others should pay attention to me and not others).
No insecurity or narcissism in me at all. What would I have to be insecure about? I've got a wife who loves me, children who love me, a dog who loves me, no money worries, no career to have to continue to build. I'm 55 and if I'm lucky I'll live another 30 years. I am very aware of my strengths and weaknesses. You're way off the mark here, brother.
eh I dunno admittedly I'm not good at judging character usually, but Flagpole seems to me one of the good guys - one who makes mistakes but doesn't make up stuff. There's no use arguing this, but that's my sense of it. Maybe it's partly because he and I have a lot in common so I give him the benefit of the doubt.
Ok whatever. On to June. Sp500 gained the tiniest of a smidge in May. Hoorah. I needed that.
One of the good guys? lmao
The guy has been vigorously trolling these boards since at least 2005.
Well, that's not true.
1) I had a bit of a trolling period very early on in my posting history here, but I have long since abandoned that. Once in a great great while I will put a hook out, but I almost always either admit I am doing that or it's super clear that I am doing that. In any event, I am definitely NOT a troll.
2) I began posting here in 2001.
3) I am definitely one of the good guys. In the last 5 years I have almost exclusively posted in political threads about Trump, and as a good guy, I have been AGAINST him at every turn. There is nothing trolling or NOT good about that.
Nah. You're clearly upset that you haven't done as well as I have. Don't use me as your measuring stick, brother. Invest what you need to to have the retirement that YOU want. It's not a competition.
Flaphole, you don't know the first thing about me. I have no idea how much money you have for retirement, and you have no idea what I have. I don't participate in online portfolio measuring contests, have never shared an estimate of net worth nor asked it of others. I participate here in a discussion about investing and money concepts with a quirky and interesting group of anonymous people (and maybe bots; the jury is out on C9...).
The reason I challenge you on your claim is its sheer brazen ridiculousness. It is so clearly untrue, and yet you trumpet on and on and on and on and on about it.... Just taking a bit of hot air out of you, is all. Mind you, my efforts are clearly wasted as you seem to have an unlimited supply, which I'll admit is impressive in its way.
For it to be a lie, a person has to ... BELIEVE it is not truthful and then state it anyway.
You should be way easier on Trump then, if this is how you roll with the truth.
The honest person doesn't double down on an untruth after they've been corrected about the truth by another honest person. Your continued insistence that I envy you has evolved from a misunderstanding to a lie.
Nah. You're clearly upset that you haven't done as well as I have. Don't use me as your measuring stick, brother. Invest what you need to to have the retirement that YOU want. It's not a competition.
Flaphole, you don't know the first thing about me. I have no idea how much money you have for retirement, and you have no idea what I have. I don't participate in online portfolio measuring contests, have never shared an estimate of net worth nor asked it of others. I participate here in a discussion about investing and money concepts with a quirky and interesting group of anonymous people (and maybe bots; the jury is out on C9...).
The reason I challenge you on your claim is its sheer brazen ridiculousness. It is so clearly untrue, and yet you trumpet on and on and on and on and on about it.... Just taking a bit of hot air out of you, is all. Mind you, my efforts are clearly wasted as you seem to have an unlimited supply, which I'll admit is impressive in its way.
Flagpole is only 55 and I can see him investing for another 30 years. Let's assume that his porfolio's poor start to the year continues and he ends up losing to the market (Dow). That just means that come 2052, when he is still appearing on this thread, his record will then be having beaten the market 52 out of 54 years. He will go down in the investing annals as the greatest investor of all time.
You should be way easier on Trump then, if this is how you roll with the truth.
The honest person doesn't double down on an untruth after they've been corrected about the truth by another honest person. Your continued insistence that I envy you has evolved from a misunderstanding to a lie.
The parallels with Trump are kinda funny given how much flagpole hates the guy. Trump has his stolen election, flagpole has his market beating portfolio. It's his "Big Lie" that he will just keep repeating over and over despite having zero evidence to support it.
The bigger question here is why you aren't selling your services. A portfolio strategy that beats the market 33 out of 34 years would be worth billions. Tens of billions really.
No, that is not even a small question let alone a big question. Here are the reasons why:
1) I do not pretend to know how to pick mutual funds other than that you should diversify and then either go more conservative or aggressive depending on your preference and station in life.
2) I have no special ability or insight with regard to picking mutual funds, so there is nothing there to sell.
3) Past performance is not indicative of future performance. So far this year, I am getting killed by the Dow. For all I know, it will happen again next year and the year after that. Doesn't really matter to me at this point. I will no longer be making an income, but my wife will, and we will still invest as we have been for the next 5 years until she retires (even though we don't need to at this point). Technically I could take it all out and put it in CDs and cash if I wanted to. I no longer need any returns on that money.
4) There is no strategy. Random picking of funds in the different sectors of the market that I want them to be in and then next to randomly deciding how much money to put in said funds or whether to buy additional funds in other sectors each year.
5) Even if I felt I had something to sell here, it doesn't sound like that fun of a job. So, nah just based on that alone.
I feel your pain. I once ran a 3 minute mile and literally no one believes me! Idk why, it's not like it was that hard. I assume most of the pros do it all the time
bond ETF dividend payouts are climbing already as they buy bonds with higher yields...june 22 payouts look oh 7-10% higher than june 2021. This stuff makes me very happy.
it's a slow process because the funds still own the lower paying bonds but at least they can buy new higher yielding bonds now.
could be inconsistent tho as bonds roll off.
if our bond funds get back to yielding 3%, it will be a lot easier to get that 8-10% overall return. We'd only need 5-7% from stocks.
No, that is not even a small question let alone a big question. Here are the reasons why:
1) I do not pretend to know how to pick mutual funds other than that you should diversify and then either go more conservative or aggressive depending on your preference and station in life.
2) I have no special ability or insight with regard to picking mutual funds, so there is nothing there to sell.
3) Past performance is not indicative of future performance. So far this year, I am getting killed by the Dow. For all I know, it will happen again next year and the year after that. Doesn't really matter to me at this point. I will no longer be making an income, but my wife will, and we will still invest as we have been for the next 5 years until she retires (even though we don't need to at this point). Technically I could take it all out and put it in CDs and cash if I wanted to. I no longer need any returns on that money.
4) There is no strategy. Random picking of funds in the different sectors of the market that I want them to be in and then next to randomly deciding how much money to put in said funds or whether to buy additional funds in other sectors each year.
5) Even if I felt I had something to sell here, it doesn't sound like that fun of a job. So, nah just based on that alone.
I feel your pain. I once ran a 3 minute mile and literally no one believes me! Idk why, it's not like it was that hard. I assume most of the pros do it all the time
who was that American in the 60s or 70s who claimed he ran a 16 minute four-mile run and never backed down?