Down goes the Dow

nearly retired wrote:

agip wrote:

this is absurd.

Carmine and nearly retired's logic: Today's lower inflation number totally contradicts the idea that inflation is easing.

Ok boys I think we are done with this topic.

agip,

I know you follow covid data so maybe we can use that as a logical proxy.

Consider the daily reported cases for [insert jurisdiction of interest here]. Today we see 83 cases after seeing 85 yesterday.

Do these tow data points, on their own, tell us that cases are declining? No. They tell us that the number today is lower than the number yesterday. That MAY be a result of (and indication of) a declining trend. But with only two data points, it's impossible to tell the trend from uncertainty / noise.

The same principal applies here. The uncertainty in any given single-month inflation number cannot be ignored. Two data points are insufficient to define a trend with any kind of confidence. They agree with your hypothesis, but are not a basis to make any reasonable interpretations.

I'm not trying to be disagreeable for the sake of it; I'm trying to help you (and others) understand how to reason properly with numbers, which is not an innate talent most of us have.

Or, you can tell me to go fack off, and I will happily do so...

nearly retired wrote:

agip wrote:

this is absurd.

Carmine and nearly retired's logic: Today's lower inflation number totally contradicts the idea that inflation is easing.

Ok boys I think we are done with this topic.

agip,

I know you follow covid data so maybe we can use that as a logical proxy.

Consider the daily reported cases for [insert jurisdiction of interest here]. Today we see 83 cases after seeing 85 yesterday.

Do these tow data points, on their own, tell us that cases are declining? No. They tell us that the number today is lower than the number yesterday. That MAY be a result of (and indication of) a declining trend. But with only two data points, it's impossible to tell the trend from uncertainty / noise.

The same principal applies here. The uncertainty in any given single-month inflation number cannot be ignored. Two data points are insufficient to define a trend with any kind of confidence. They agree with your hypothesis, but are not a basis to make any reasonable interpretations.

I'm not trying to be disagreeable for the sake of it; I'm trying to help you (and others) understand how to reason properly with numbers, which is not an innate talent most of us have.

Or, you can tell me to go fack off, and I will happily do so...

agip wrote:

nearly retired wrote:

agip,

I know you follow covid data so maybe we can use that as a logical proxy.

Consider the daily reported cases for [insert jurisdiction of interest here]. Today we see 83 cases after seeing 85 yesterday.

Do these tow data points, on their own, tell us that cases are declining? No. They tell us that the number today is lower than the number yesterday. That MAY be a result of (and indication of) a declining trend. But with only two data points, it's impossible to tell the trend from uncertainty / noise.

The same principal applies here. The uncertainty in any given single-month inflation number cannot be ignored. Two data points are insufficient to define a trend with any kind of confidence. They agree with your hypothesis, but are not a basis to make any reasonable interpretations.

I'm not trying to be disagreeable for the sake of it; I'm trying to help you (and others) understand how to reason properly with numbers, which is not an innate talent most of us have.

Or, you can tell me to go fack off, and I will happily do so...

do you agree, yes or no: today's inflation report totally contradicts the idea that inflation is easing.

Just yes or no. That's all we're fighting about here. Does today's data totally blow out of the water the case that inflation is easing.

No text, no metaphor. yes or no.

nearly retired wrote:

agip wrote:

do you agree, yes or no: today's inflation report totally contradicts the idea that inflation is easing.

Just yes or no. That's all we're fighting about here. Does today's data totally blow out of the water the case that inflation is easing.

No text, no metaphor. yes or no.

Sorry agip, I don't want to play this silly game, yelling back and forth across the internet. I've said what I have to say. Interpret or ignore it as you will. The words were given freely so you are welcome to value them at the cost you paid.

I have no position on your question; I decline to answer either yes or no, as the information is insufficient to take a firm position one way or another, and I see no advantage planting my flag on on side of the border versus the other. With a gun to my head I might say inflation numbers are likely to drop soon. But I have no gun to my head, and they may not.