Down goes the Dow

You said "always" and showed data starting in 2010, i.e. the period that began the biggest market rally in history.

I get the feeling that what is happening is a) there is no desire to take long positions or put fresh money into the market because of a 'wait-and-see' attitude prevalent that stems from the fear of what will drive a market that has been fed for too long on Fed support that has abruptly ceased, and b) every rebound of a fresh bottom is shortly pounced upon by short-sellers as an opportunity for a fresh entry point and an opportunity for larger institutional investors to reduce some risk by using the favorable selling point.

We are early on in what is widely understood to be a series of interest rate hikes, and I think that without a willingness to see investors start to build their positions, the trend will be downwards,

But I also think that the reversal, when it comes, will be swift, and it is impossible to predict when that will be, as it is to predict if we have further to drop.

I suppose it depends on how important the Fed is to the stock market.

history suggests the fed isn't all that important to the stock market since stocks tend to rise during fed tightening.

but could be different this time, sure.

$3.5 Trillion Fed QE Financial Crisis to Pre-Covid add another $5 Trillion Covid Crisis to today. What history?

Fair.

it's true that QE is a new phenomenon.

while the Fed raising rates has not usually made stocks decline in the past,

ending QE is new and has not been tested much. So that is an unknown.

He makes a good case for buy-and-hold and how to increase your level of success using that tried-and-true strategy. Thanks for the link.

Sure, but don’t expect double digit index returns. Reason for my post.

One Year

Energy +65

TSLA +30

High free cash flow COWZ +15

Utilities +13

Cons staples +11

Healthcare +7

Wisdom Tree Div fund +7

REITS +6

Hussman +4

Value +4

Schwab Div fund +3

Gold +3

ST TIPS +1

SP500 -1

Materials -1

Tech -1

Floating Rate: -1

TIPS -2

ST Junk -3

USA -4

Non US Div stocks -5

Industrials -7

Financials -7

Junk -7

Global 60/40 -8

Treas -9

Clean Energy -10

Bonds -10

Non US Devlpd -12

Small Caps -12

Corp Bonds -14

Cons Disc -15

Emerging -19

Comms sector -23

Retail -25

GME -29

BTC -37

China -45

ARKK -53

Weed -61

PTON -81

lots here.

Over one year tech is -1%. I think most people think its much worse.

Value/divided US stocks are doing fine. Some even positive for the year

Investment quality bonds are a smoking crater...have to think that's a place to look for yield right now.

Hussman is...ok at +4.

60/40 fund is down 8% for a year. That's normal.

Looks to me that we've burned off the speculative stocks. Crushed. But the quality stuff has been doing well. Will quality be the next to fall? Do we now start buying back the speculative stuff? I sure don't know. And should we back up the truck on investment quality bonds?

Is this a blip and then we get back to buying our state-of-the-art tech companies? Or will the market continue to reward cash flow, dividends and lower valuation?

Like what?

DoorDash? Ground-breaking "tech" of somebody driving Burger King to your house.

Peleton? An iPad on a stationary bike.

not sure you are aware of the many giant high quality US tech companies. Pearl in the crown. Stuff you've never heard of but enormous and wildly successful. That's kind of our national specialty in these parts.

for example, ticker NOW. A company few have heard of.

giant $62 bn market cap

sales up 30% last year, profit doubled, no debt, $2 bn annual cash flow

that kind of thing is the national specialty, thank goodness.

We had plenty of legit tech companies during the DotCom Bubble, too.

That we have plenty of legit tech companies doesn't mean we're not in a gigantic bubble that is still deflating. Think of all the funds holding worthless companies.

Meh

the tech sector has changed from mostly speculation to mostly profitable.

times have changed. This is not the dot com era. I was there. This is not that.

No, it's the exact same. We just replaced "Dot Com" with "There's an app for that!" There is a company called Chewy which is literally the same thing as the infamously worthless company Pets.com from 20 years ago. Chewy stock reached $120/share in 2021, now down to $27.

Exactly the same. Uh huh.
come on man try a little harder.

do you have any idea how many billions of dollars of profit the tech sector has? Maybe trillions?

Pulling up a couple of failed small companies in no way negates the vast profitability of the tech sector. Which it did not have in 1999.

and anyway you are suffering from ‘out of power pessimism.’ When someone’s political party is out of power, its voters always turn very pessimistic on the economy. It’s totally normal. You will feel better about the markets if the Rs win the house or senate in six months. Chin up.

the big difference between today and the dot.com speculation of the late nineties is the former was simply speculation on unproven companies, and today, it is probably simply being overweight on a particular sector.

But as Agip points out, it is, by and large, a sector that is profitable and integral to the operation of our economy, utilities, telecommunications, etc. The tech sector today is not fundamentally speculative, though there is certainly a corner of it that is.