great quote. Explains why so many smart people are terrible investors. They try to outsmart the markets, and can't summon the courage to be a long term investor. In other things they have been able to outsmart systems and win that way...in investing trying to outsmart the system just ensures they fail by selling when things are bad.
A high IQ only gets you so far as an investor. Most of investing requires a strong stomach. ~ Peter Lynch
My best take is that the Fed's statement will be very aggressive/hawkish - more hikes than we expect, etc. As an effort to jawbone down the economy. So investors and business people do the cuts on their own, slowing the economy by themselves, so the Fed in effect doesn't have to kill off the economy with very high rates. That the Fed would much rather have the invisible hand do all the work than the Fed itself.
I think that would be best for stocks too - to let the economy sort itself out rather than being kudgeled by the Fed.
My best take is that the Fed's statement will be very aggressive/hawkish - more hikes than we expect, etc. As an effort to jawbone down the economy. So investors and business people do the cuts on their own, slowing the economy by themselves, so the Fed in effect doesn't have to kill off the economy with very high rates. That the Fed would much rather have the invisible hand do all the work than the Fed itself.
I think that would be best for stocks too - to let the economy sort itself out rather than being kudgeled by the Fed.
100%, I think the same on this. A lot of the inflation is coming from supply chain issues exacerbated by increased demand, which is exacerbated by inflationary fomo. Create a temporary bearish sentiment in the zeitgeist, damper demand a bit and let the supply chain catch up. Ease back into that slower steady growth, and if they overdo the rates they can always lower which will be very bullish.
I always thought of "beating the market" as being green that year. So for those 33 out of 34 years that you beat the market, some of those years just means you lost less than average?
I always thought of "beating the market" as being green that year. So for those 33 out of 34 years that you beat the market, some of those years just means you lost less than average?
Many investors will have half as much a year from now. The market averages will get the, back to even in 2032 or 35.
If by "many investors", you mean idiot investors who buy individual stocks only and chase peaks and valleys, then you are right. If you mean investors who diversify into stock mutual funds, then no.
Regarding market averages, let's just pick the Dow. You think the Dow will get back to its top of ~36,900 not until 2032 or 2035? That is nuts, and there is no knowledge you have about the future or stocks today that could possibly predict that.
It IS possible you could be right, but it would take another pandemic that dwarfs the one we just had or some nuclear weapons being set off randomly in major cities or Yellowstone exploding or some HUGE natural disaster that causes a worldwide crisis.
With your doomsday attitude, how do you possibly invest a penny into anything ever? I've got to think you have next to no money in the market to have these permabear opinions you have.