If Musk is buying Twitter at $53 or $54 per share or whatever the offer is, why is Twitter still trading at < $50?
Why not buy it?
there's a chance the deal will not go through.
If the deal does not go through and no other deal materializes, TSLA stock will likely fall back quite a bit.
but if the deal goes through as advertised, you will make around 10%.
Some portion of the 49-54 gap is because of the time value of money.
Many people do nothing but bet on whether deals like this one will go through. So it's not just random behavior here - there is real reason to think there is a material chance the deal will blow up.
Well, if you assign 100% probability to the deal going through, you would be crazy not to buy shares at a discount.
Me, I have some doubts...
the problem is that there are so many unknowns and it's a binary win/lose bet. Probably.
investing in the broad stock market is betting with the house, with nearly infinite inputs to iron out weirdness. This kind of bet is just what a few guys think or do. It's a gamble, not an investment. Sure the deal will probably go through. Do you feel lucky?
Well, if you assign 100% probability to the deal going through, you would be crazy not to buy shares at a discount.
Me, I have some doubts...
the problem is that there are so many unknowns and it's a binary win/lose bet. Probably.
investing in the broad stock market is betting with the house, with nearly infinite inputs to iron out weirdness. This kind of bet is just what a few guys think or do. It's a gamble, not an investment. Sure the deal will probably go through. Do you feel lucky?
$1 Billion for Musk to pull out. How much did TSLA drop last week? Musk changes his mind and TWTR drops like a rock.
the problem is that there are so many unknowns and it's a binary win/lose bet. Probably.
investing in the broad stock market is betting with the house, with nearly infinite inputs to iron out weirdness. This kind of bet is just what a few guys think or do. It's a gamble, not an investment. Sure the deal will probably go through. Do you feel lucky?
$1 Billion for Musk to pull out. How much did TSLA drop last week? Musk changes his mind and TWTR drops like a rock.
yeah, and I think what you are saying is that if Musk drops out, he pays twitter $1 bn... but TSLA stock goes up way way way more than $1 bn. So Musk could see a profit making opportunity here by walking away, without getting entangled in an almost sure loser with owning twitter.
My SPY puts are getting killed. Why is the market pumping this week?
geez. Carmine has some views. Probably a conspiracy behind it.
but seriously, come on. This is what the market does in the short term. People run to one side of the boat, the boat tilts way over and then rocks back the other way.
In this case, sentiment got so catastrophically bad that all the panic selling was already done. Combined with yet another solid earnings season, signs inflation has peaked and interest rates may have peaked, money started returning to the market, causing a snowball effect as people panic sold hedges like your puts.
Will the boat flap back over to the other side? Who knows.
My SPY puts are getting killed. Why is the market pumping this week?
geez. Carmine has some views. Probably a conspiracy behind it.
but seriously, come on. This is what the market does in the short term. People run to one side of the boat, the boat tilts way over and then rocks back the other way.
In this case, sentiment got so catastrophically bad that all the panic selling was already done. Combined with yet another solid earnings season, signs inflation has peaked and interest rates may have peaked, money started returning to the market, causing a snowball effect as people panic sold hedges like your puts.
Will the boat flap back over to the other side? Who knows.
Well damn. Y'all had me convinced that SPY would fall to 380 by summer. Guess it's good to have the market go up again.
My SPY puts are getting killed. Why is the market pumping this week?
geez. Carmine has some views. Probably a conspiracy behind it.
but seriously, come on. This is what the market does in the short term. People run to one side of the boat, the boat tilts way over and then rocks back the other way.
In this case, sentiment got so catastrophically bad that all the panic selling was already done. Combined with yet another solid earnings season, signs inflation has peaked and interest rates may have peaked, money started returning to the market, causing a snowball effect as people panic sold hedges like your puts.
Will the boat flap back over to the other side? Who knows.
Will be very interesting to see if Flagpole's crazy luck continues and he will beat this crazy market for the 33rd time in 34 years. Wouldn't that be something. Market tanks - advantage Flagpole, Market record highs - advantage Flagpole. Market lackluster - advantage Flagpole. Market great depression- Advantage Flagpole. The guy can't lose.
geez. Carmine has some views. Probably a conspiracy behind it.
but seriously, come on. This is what the market does in the short term. People run to one side of the boat, the boat tilts way over and then rocks back the other way.
In this case, sentiment got so catastrophically bad that all the panic selling was already done. Combined with yet another solid earnings season, signs inflation has peaked and interest rates may have peaked, money started returning to the market, causing a snowball effect as people panic sold hedges like your puts.
Will the boat flap back over to the other side? Who knows.
Will be very interesting to see if Flagpole's crazy luck continues and he will beat this crazy market for the 33rd time in 34 years. Wouldn't that be something. Market tanks - advantage Flagpole, Market record highs - advantage Flagpole. Market lackluster - advantage Flagpole. Market great depression- Advantage Flagpole. The guy can't lose.
I will say that this market has been very easy to beat...owning TIPS and value/dividend stocks has produced the biggest outperformance of my career, no doubt. but of course I've still lost a lot of money in 2022. Just less than the benchmark.
Those owning tech are getting wacked upside the head - that's the other side of the coin.
geez. Carmine has some views. Probably a conspiracy behind it.
but seriously, come on. This is what the market does in the short term. People run to one side of the boat, the boat tilts way over and then rocks back the other way.
In this case, sentiment got so catastrophically bad that all the panic selling was already done. Combined with yet another solid earnings season, signs inflation has peaked and interest rates may have peaked, money started returning to the market, causing a snowball effect as people panic sold hedges like your puts.
Will the boat flap back over to the other side? Who knows.
Will be very interesting to see if Flagpole's crazy luck continues and he will beat this crazy market for the 33rd time in 34 years. Wouldn't that be something. Market tanks - advantage Flagpole, Market record highs - advantage Flagpole. Market lackluster - advantage Flagpole. Market great depression- Advantage Flagpole. The guy can't lose.
Oh,, and Flagpole's computer crashes and he can't see how his portfolio did versus the market ... Advantage Flagpole. Really no need to compare his portfolio to the market - his portfolio; ALWAYS comes out ahead. Like the sun rising in the east.
Will be very interesting to see if Flagpole's crazy luck continues and he will beat this crazy market for the 33rd time in 34 years. Wouldn't that be something. Market tanks - advantage Flagpole, Market record highs - advantage Flagpole. Market lackluster - advantage Flagpole. Market great depression- Advantage Flagpole. The guy can't lose.
I will say that this market has been very easy to beat...owning TIPS and value/dividend stocks has produced the biggest outperformance of my career, no doubt. but of course I've still lost a lot of money in 2022. Just less than the benchmark.
Those owning tech are getting wacked upside the head - that's the other side of the coin.
I never thought of it that way. I guess if you beat the market, that can mean losing less than the market. But still losing a lot of money.
I had very interesting jobs throughout my working years. Like you I had a paper route as a young man, in fact delivered papers the day JFK died. Worked under the Director of Marketing at Northrop Aircraft right out of college, while still competing as a national class marathoner (2:19:15 Boston 1974). At age 25 went back to college at USC to earn my masters while working part time painting apartments in L.A. Upon graduation began a successful career as a track coach starting at a junior college as an assistant and completing a 19 year career at a Division I school as a head coach. My last career was 24 years as a financial advisor saw me earn during my years the professional designations of CFP, CLU, ChFC, and Associate Vice President at Morgan Stanley.
Some people just live lives of achievement, others mindless harassment of others on social media. Of course this is not directed at you Flagpole.
Nobody likes talking about themself more than Igy.
the 'globalism is dead, make everything in America' crowd is going to have to find many hundreds of thousands of Americans willing to work in manufacturing. Good luck!
My bet is that low-wage poor countries will still be the factory floor of the world and that will lower the inflation.
JOLTS thread: There were 860,000 manufacturing job openings in March, with increased postings for both durable and nondurable goods firms. Over the past 12 months, job openings in the sector have averaged nearly 865,000, including the record 943,000 in July.
my value funds are up in a range between 80 bps to 150 bps in a flat market overall.
Would be astonishing if value keeps doing this well. All those momo stock jockeys would take years coming around to value investing. Just in time to switch back to tech stocks.