I don't think Racket is hard left - that's unfair. he is a permabull, but that doesn't have political implications. He is an institutionalist who believes in truth, knowledge and that in the end everything will work out ok. Which has been a good way to run a portfolio, honestly.
Anyway, I'll be posting sporadically until the markets recover. Too much market talk tends to get me to make bad decisions. See? it's all of youse faults.
Anyway, weird time. Most of the normal measures of market performance suggest that the next 12 months will be a great time to be an equity investor. But it might be a strange time in that the Fed is sworn to drain money out of the economy. It will be a balance between the strong actual economy and the weak financial world. Being an institutionalist myself, I think it will work out ok.
I wouldn't call it "permabull" I think. There's a ton of noise in the market these days and it takes a lot to cut through it. After you do, it turns out that just because dumb sh!t like Peloton is crashing doesn't really mean anything else for the US economy. Idk
Also, while Igy and I may lean toward investment-north (bear-ish), the philosophical similarities probably end there. Your US political spectrum lies entirely on the right of the centre, from a global perspective, and my own political leanings are left of the global centre, way outside the US spectrum, and about as far from Igy's Trump love as is possible, at least on most important matters. We can agree strongly on some things while disagreeing in the strongest possible terms on others...
Remember that he also claimed poverty was self-imposed laziness and regularly plays the "I have tons of black friends!" card in response to accusations of his cartoonist racist comments!
I wouldn't call it "permabull" I think. There's a ton of noise in the market these days and it takes a lot to cut through it. After you do, it turns out that just because dumb sh!t like Peloton is crashing doesn't really mean anything else for the US economy. Idk
my man, your mantra is 'stocks always go up'
how is that not a synonym for 'permabull?'
It's not my fault if stocks do in fact only go up.
Also, while Igy and I may lean toward investment-north (bear-ish), the philosophical similarities probably end there. Your US political spectrum lies entirely on the right of the centre, from a global perspective, and my own political leanings are left of the global centre, way outside the US spectrum, and about as far from Igy's Trump love as is possible, at least on most important matters. We can agree strongly on some things while disagreeing in the strongest possible terms on others...
I don’t love Trump. I will say Trump never had to apologize for a blackface heart. In my mind says much more than policies that keep minorities dependent. I detest most politicians. Hollywood stars for ugly people.
Remember that he also claimed poverty was self-imposed laziness...
While I don't remember Igy saying that (he could have?), I've heard that bizarre claim from a stateside sister-in-law. I can't comprehend the mental gymnastics necessary to form that conclusion, but I gather it is a common article of truth in some large circles.
As a former financial advisor at one of the world’s largest and prestigious investment firms I will point out a couple of facts. Investment firms profitability is correlated directly to S&P 500 performance. The largest firms have large trading desks, and actively support corporate stock and bond transactions. There is a strong incentive to underwrite “it is always a good time buy stocks.” Unfortunately in my career they never warned of the two severe bear markets (-52% and -59% S&P 500 drops). Odds are high this bear market will be far worse.
I am usually very bullish, and I was reading this post and just glanced at "a former advisor at one of the world's larget investment firms" and thinking this guy knows what he is talking about and he eventually mentions how this bear market will be "far worse" and I am ready to get in the fetal position. Then, my eyes dart over to the Poster's name and I see it is permabear Igy, and I take a big breath and know I have dodged a bullet. My panic was for naught. Just Igy again.
Is the market having a good, bad or okay day? I can't look at yahoo finance.
A few years ago when we were much more heavily into US equities, I found daily market volatility very agitating. Now, with roughly half of our investment accounts sitting in cash waiting for the proverbial rainy day, I don't get too fussed about market gyrations and I sleep well every night. I know I'm giving up potential gains by sitting on the sidelines, but there is a big, unquantifiable / undefinable value in peace of mind.
volatile within a band. Up 50 bps to down 50 bps, approx. Rinse and repeat.
but the 10 year is rising again...just...about....hit 3.0%.
That would typically news to celebrate - the 10-year treasury hitting 3% but when inflation is 8.5% and rising - OUCH!
yeah but starting to see some signs inflation has peaked...baltic dry index is down 30% from peak, the inflation surprise index is dropping. Clearly bond buyers think the inflation rate will drop very quickly otherwise they wouldn't lock up their money at 3%.
Posters who label me a perma bear are lazy investors, and would rather not use their brain. Unfortunately every factor that was a tailwind for investors the last decade are now headwinds. The wonderful returns will evaporate as the biggest asset bubble in history deflates.
Igy is okay with labeling others, but doesn’t like being labeled himself. If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.
Posters who label me a perma bear are lazy investors, and would rather not use their brain. Unfortunately every factor that was a tailwind for investors the last decade are now headwinds. The wonderful returns will evaporate as the biggest asset bubble in history deflates.
Igy is okay with labeling others, but doesn’t like being labeled himself. If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.
Boy, a psychiatrist would have a field day with you. Revealing post from a guy that registered over a dozen handles for the specific purpose of harassing Igy.