Cherry pick the roughly the very worst date a person could have invested in the last 40 years and then use it argue against a demonstrable fact that the average rate of return for the S&P 500 is ~10%/year. Anyone can fact check that by spending a couple minutes on google and can calculate it themselves by spending a couple more minutes with excel. Why post such things? And why would you say reinvesting dividends is rare? Everyone I know does that. That's kind of the whole point to compound growth.
Igy is a permabear who will always emphasize the worst case scenario. He is a miserable person and is annoyed that you are not feeling likewise. His goal is to bring you down to his level. Misery loves company.
Posters who label me a perma bear are lazy investors, and would rather not use their brain. Unfortunately every factor that was a tailwind for investors the last decade are now headwinds. The wonderful returns will evaporate as the biggest asset bubble in history deflates.
Cherry pick the roughly the very worst date a person could have invested in the last 40 years and then use it argue against a demonstrable fact that the average rate of return for the S&P 500 is ~10%/year. Anyone can fact check that by spending a couple minutes on google and can calculate it themselves by spending a couple more minutes with excel. Why post such things? And why would you say reinvesting dividends is rare? Everyone I know does that. That's kind of the whole point to compound growth.
Igy is a permabear who will always emphasize the worst case scenario. He is a miserable person and is annoyed that you are not feeling likewise. His goal is to bring you down to his level. Misery loves company.
Posters who label me a perma bear are lazy investors, and would rather not use their brain. Unfortunately every factor that was a tailwind for investors the last decade are now headwinds. The wonderful returns will evaporate as the biggest asset bubble in history deflates.
Igy, you may be other things, but you are surely a perma-bear. At least you have been the entire time you've been posting in this thread (2015?).
I'm not assigning any negative connotations to that label, mind you.
I bought financials and leveraged up S&P 500 in the fall of 2008. I was the guy that bought energy when it was clearly out of favor a few years ago. And recently I did the same with emerging market debt. So, I fall clearly in line with value investing which is not buying dividend stocks after they have already moved up 20%.
Igy, I was not calling you a dumb investor, not by any stretch. But nearly every post you've made in this thread, for several years, has had a very strong bearish sentiment.
Igy, I was not calling you a dumb investor, not by any stretch. But nearly every post you've made in this thread, for several years, has had a very strong bearish sentiment.
That is fair, then by definition most of the remaining posters are perma bullish.
I was reading a piece contrasting fund flows TQQQ versus SQQQ. The implication being the long fund was lopsided, with any negative pushing the short much higher.
Actually, among our small regular club, there is a spectrum from hard right perma-bear (Igy) to hard left perma-bull (Racket). If I could places a few of the regulars on that right-to-left spectrum, I'm mid-right, near-Igy, SP is far left, near-racket, agip is to the left of centre but not full-racket. Most of the irregulars seem to be mainly buddies of racket, never seen a market downturn and convinced that stocks only go up... :-D
Actually, among our small regular club, there is a spectrum from hard right perma-bear (Igy) to hard left perma-bull (Racket). If I could places a few of the regulars on that right-to-left spectrum, I'm mid-right, near-Igy, SP is far left, near-racket, agip is to the left of centre but not full-racket. Most of the irregulars seem to be mainly buddies of racket, never seen a market downturn and convinced that stocks only go up... :-D
I think that is spot on. What happened to Racket? Perhaps some of the smugness has been erased as asset prices have fallen. Life does that to the young and inexperienced.
Actually, among our small regular club, there is a spectrum from hard right perma-bear (Igy) to hard left perma-bull (Racket). If I could places a few of the regulars on that right-to-left spectrum, I'm mid-right, near-Igy, SP is far left, near-racket, agip is to the left of centre but not full-racket. Most of the irregulars seem to be mainly buddies of racket, never seen a market downturn and convinced that stocks only go up... :-D
I think that is spot on. What happened to Racket? Perhaps some of the smugness has been erased as asset prices have fallen. Life does that to the young and inexperienced.
I don't think Racket is hard left - that's unfair. he is a permabull, but that doesn't have political implications. He is an institutionalist who believes in truth, knowledge and that in the end everything will work out ok. Which has been a good way to run a portfolio, honestly.
Anyway, I'll be posting sporadically until the markets recover. Too much market talk tends to get me to make bad decisions. See? it's all of youse faults.
Anyway, weird time. Most of the normal measures of market performance suggest that the next 12 months will be a great time to be an equity investor. But it might be a strange time in that the Fed is sworn to drain money out of the economy. It will be a balance between the strong actual economy and the weak financial world. Being an institutionalist myself, I think it will work out ok.
I don't think Racket is hard left - that's unfair. he is a permabull, but that doesn't have political implications.
Sorry, the left-right was totally arbitrary, not intended to imply political affiliation, just intended to mark off opposite end points for investor sentiment. I probably should have used north and south to avoid confusion... :-)
I think that is spot on. What happened to Racket? Perhaps some of the smugness has been erased as asset prices have fallen. Life does that to the young and inexperienced.
I don't think Racket is hard left - that's unfair. he is a permabull, but that doesn't have political implications. He is an institutionalist who believes in truth, knowledge and that in the end everything will work out ok. Which has been a good way to run a portfolio, honestly.
Anyway, I'll be posting sporadically until the markets recover. Too much market talk tends to get me to make bad decisions. See? it's all of youse faults.
Anyway, weird time. Most of the normal measures of market performance suggest that the next 12 months will be a great time to be an equity investor. But it might be a strange time in that the Fed is sworn to drain money out of the economy. It will be a balance between the strong actual economy and the weak financial world. Being an institutionalist myself, I think it will work out ok.
78% of the worst starts for stocks to the year (Jan/Feb) ended in positive returns. Often, with above-average returns. April has been really bad, but just ride it out. Let's see how things look in the fall.
The start of 2022 has been one of the worst in history for both stocks and bonds. However, in the past, calendar year returns have been positive a lot more often than not; even after historically bad starts to a year.
Also, while Igy and I may lean toward investment-north (bear-ish), the philosophical similarities probably end there. Your US political spectrum lies entirely on the right of the centre, from a global perspective, and my own political leanings are left of the global centre, way outside the US spectrum, and about as far from Igy's Trump love as is possible, at least on most important matters. We can agree strongly on some things while disagreeing in the strongest possible terms on others...
... I'll be posting sporadically until the markets recover. Too much market talk tends to get me to make bad decisions.
When I shared the simulation results in the previous page, the critical factor I didn't mention, which lies outside the probabilities and statistics, is the human element. People don't make good decisions in the face of big losses. It's easy to "let it ride" when markets are frothy, and equally easy to throw money away in a downturn. Don't underestimate the emotional side of investing. It's probably way more important than the mathematics.
As a former financial advisor at one of the world’s largest and prestigious investment firms I will point out a couple of facts. Investment firms profitability is correlated directly to S&P 500 performance. The largest firms have large trading desks, and actively support corporate stock and bond transactions. There is a strong incentive to underwrite “it is always a good time buy stocks.” Unfortunately in my career they never warned of the two severe bear markets (-52% and -59% S&P 500 drops). Odds are high this bear market will be far worse.
As a former financial advisor at one of the world’s largest and prestigious investment firms I will point out a couple of facts. Investment firms profitability is correlated directly to S&P 500 performance. The largest firms have large trading desks, and actively support corporate stock and bond transactions. There is a strong incentive to underwrite “it is always a good time buy stocks.” Unfortunately in my career they never warned of the two severe bear markets (-52% and -59% S&P 500 drops). Odds are high this bear market will be far worse.
no doubt, the history of modern investing in America has been the triumph of the optimists. That will end at some point.
Actually, among our small regular club, there is a spectrum from hard right perma-bear (Igy) to hard left perma-bull (Racket). If I could places a few of the regulars on that right-to-left spectrum, I'm mid-right, near-Igy, SP is far left, near-racket, agip is to the left of centre but not full-racket. Most of the irregulars seem to be mainly buddies of racket, never seen a market downturn and convinced that stocks only go up... :-D
I think that is spot on. What happened to Racket? Perhaps some of the smugness has been erased as asset prices have fallen. Life does that to the young and inexperienced.
As a former financial advisor at one of the world’s largest and prestigious investment firms I will point out a couple of facts. Investment firms profitability is correlated directly to S&P 500 performance. The largest firms have large trading desks, and actively support corporate stock and bond transactions. There is a strong incentive to underwrite “it is always a good time buy stocks.” Unfortunately in my career they never warned of the two severe bear markets (-52% and -59% S&P 500 drops). Odds are high this bear market will be far worse.
I am usually very bullish, and I was reading this post and just glanced at "a former advisor at one of the world's larget investment firms" and thinking this guy knows what he is talking about and he eventually mentions how this bear market will be "far worse" and I am ready to get in the fetal position. Then, my eyes dart over to the Poster's name and I see it is permabear Igy, and I take a big breath and know I have dodged a bullet. My panic was for naught. Just Igy again.
I think that is spot on. What happened to Racket? Perhaps some of the smugness has been erased as asset prices have fallen. Life does that to the young and inexperienced.
I don't think Racket is hard left - that's unfair. he is a permabull, but that doesn't have political implications. He is an institutionalist who believes in truth, knowledge and that in the end everything will work out ok. Which has been a good way to run a portfolio, honestly.
Anyway, I'll be posting sporadically until the markets recover. Too much market talk tends to get me to make bad decisions. See? it's all of youse faults.
Anyway, weird time. Most of the normal measures of market performance suggest that the next 12 months will be a great time to be an equity investor. But it might be a strange time in that the Fed is sworn to drain money out of the economy. It will be a balance between the strong actual economy and the weak financial world. Being an institutionalist myself, I think it will work out ok.
I wouldn't call it "permabull" I think. There's a ton of noise in the market these days and it takes a lot to cut through it. After you do, it turns out that just because dumb sh!t like Peloton is crashing doesn't really mean anything else for the US economy. Idk