Down goes the Dow

Take care Maserati.

As a side note, I am pretty sure Maserati is in the consortium trying to buy Twitter. 😉

Netflix done blown up

down 25%

growth era over.

I have to think it doesn’t mean much to the market tho - it’s a sui generis stonk.

The market is so momentum-based I can see the S & P and the Dow approaching all-time highs in the next few months. The NASDAQ is a different story but we are in a far different place then we were just a few months ago.

I owe gente big time for pulling me back from the ledge on NFLX...

Fed saved the market last time. This time unless inflation takes a dramatic turn (not likely), there will be no rescue.

This is just another Illuminati trick isn't it?

fact is, fighting the fed has been a very profitable enterprise for 20 years.

meaning, stocks go up when the fed is raising rates.

I do wonder if half the bear case is based on the phrase 'don't fight the fed.' Would be ironic if again the fed goes ahead and raises rates and again the stock market goes up at the same time.

The amount of power bears ascribe to the fed is astonishing.

SP500 just 1% below 200 day now...if the usual post-taxman rally happens we'll get above that and I'm sure that will trigger some more algo buying.

Oh, so don’t ever fight the Fed, whether they are, or they aren’t raising rates.

Drum roll, stocks only go up.

😷

Netflix about to have another terrible day. Might lose $42 billion today. Down 58% for the year. Worst performing stock in S&P and Nasdaq for the year.

They’ll be more as this economy and market rolls over. You can plot the market’s likely future.

the economy continues to surprise to the upside. Econoday has a surprise index based on whether econ data has been better or worse than expected...and we're at a moment of near max upside surprise.

So a heady mix...near max investor pessimism yet near max economic upside surprise. Could fuel a pretty impressive rally.

Always bullish, no matter what. And then guess what, kaboom:

adventures in stockpicking.

From January 2022

Pretty amusing to think of NFLX execs reading about Ackman's big vote of confidence in the stock as they see subscriber growth plummeting. Stock is down 42% from when this was published. Ouch.

1/27/22:

Netflix stock spiked after Pershing Square Holdings founder Bill Ackman disclosed that the firm has purchased more than 3.1 million shares of the streaming video giant, a position worth a little over $1 billion. Ackman said the purchase makes Pershing Square a top-20 holder in Netflix shares.
“I have long admired [Netflix CEO] Reed Hastings and the remarkable company he and his team have built. We are delighted that the market has presented us with this opportunity,” Ackman said Wednesday on Twitter .

Ackman just lost Pershing Square $600 million in 3 months.

NFLX is just one of hundreds, perhaps thousands of companies, that have prospered in spite of ignoring fundamental financial metrics. Several years of the “financial miracle” wiped out in hours. I suspect more to come from the most popular investments of this era.

now THIS is real market manipulation. None of that weak sauce Federal Reserve dabbling:

TOKYO (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan on Wednesday boosted efforts to defend its yield target, making a fresh offer to buy an unlimited amount of the 10-year bonds for four consecutive sessions.
The move comes as the yield on the 10-year JGB remained at 0.25%, the upper limit of its target of around zero percent, throughout Wednesday, despite the central bank's offer to buy an unlimited amount of the 10-year bonds at that rate.
"Given recent yield movements on longer-ended notes, we have announced a consecutive unlimited fixed-rate purchase of bonds to achieve our policy to guide the 10-year yield around 0%," the BOJ said in a statement.
The rise in yields comes as the yen weakens sharply to two-decade lows against the U.S. dollar amid a relentless widening of Japanese and U.S. yield spreads, prompting markets to test the central bank's commitment to its super-easy yield-curve-control policy..

yeah maybe.

interesting note that today tech funds are positive despite NFLX. VGT and RYT anyway. Netflix just not a market leading stock. It's doing its own thing.

Except ARKK. Of course ARKK is down big. I suspect she owns NFLX.

I would say that if one of the ten stocks that make up a third of the SP500 blows up....well that would be a massive problem. If I had more courage I'd go to an equal weighted SP500 approach to skirt that risk.