Seriously, the market will become increasingly frustrating for inexperienced investors. Over time they will become disinterested. At the point of collapse there will be alarm, and dismay. This thread will be largely abandoned for years.
If by "inexperienced investors" you mean day traders, I would agree.
Not exclusively. It is also likely investors blindly accumulating the individual stock winners of the last decade convinced they are sure winners in the future. Could be investors fully committed to SPY, QQQ, or VTI. Really the same thing.
The talking heads on CNBC are all still talking about the "reopening trade" and "pent-up demand" with all the supposed money people are dying to spend. lol. The money has been spent. The consumer is strapped for cash right now.
My wife bought a squirt bottle of Clorox at Albertsons for $5.79 with 20 cents off. She has started to stop buying certain items as not necessary. No desire to experience the hassle of travel in the Covid era.
The talking heads on CNBC are all still talking about the "reopening trade" and "pent-up demand" with all the supposed money people are dying to spend. lol. The money has been spent. The consumer is strapped for cash right now.
Yup everyone already YOLO'd all their savings into GME, AMC, doge, SHIB, ARKK and TSLA last year. Don't student loan repayments start up again soon? I'm sure that will be a dumpster fire too.
Low-income consumers are done—they are putting everything on credit cards, and are being strongly pressured to “unlock home equity” by the douches whose mortgage businesses are flagging, Rocket among them.
Slightly higher-income face a choice: either pare back purchasing, or contribute less/nothing to savings. Given how Americans are, it will be the latter for a good while, especially for public sector union hacks with “pensions”. They will sustain demand, as the bottom rung gets absolutely flushed. Look for more stimulus in the future, to keep them on life support so that they will be able to sign their then-foreclosed home over to Blackrock.
Musk is playing with fire. Competitors abound, and there is no loyalty in the sm space. He has only a certain number of acolytes. He could send Twitter to the shltter in no time at all. Which would be fine by me.
Low-income consumers are done—they are putting everything on credit cards, and are being strongly pressured to “unlock home equity” by the douches whose mortgage businesses are flagging, Rocket among them.
Slightly higher-income face a choice: either pare back purchasing, or contribute less/nothing to savings. Given how Americans are, it will be the latter for a good while, especially for public sector union hacks with “pensions”. They will sustain demand, as the bottom rung gets absolutely flushed. Look for more stimulus in the future, to keep them on life support so that they will be able to sign their then-foreclosed home over to Blackrock.
meh
low income wages are rising very quickly, and inflation is a chimera unless you need to buy a car, drive a lot or buy airline tickets. Low income people are fine right now.
energy was 70% of inflation in March. Sure that will cost some...but with wages rising so quickly it's not a big problem except for people who buy a lot of energy.
Musk is playing with fire. Competitors abound, and there is no loyalty in the sm space. He has only a certain number of acolytes. He could send Twitter to the shltter in no time at all. Which would be fine by me.
I just hope he isn't one of these libertarian pinheads who think their beautiful theory will work in the real world. To put a name on it, he may think we need no controls on speech whatsoever because the marketplace will take care of it. 'the best disinfectant is more speech' that sort of thing. Buy twitter, take the controls off and let 'er fly.
We have learned over the last years that more speech in this world = more lies and more disinformation. Twitter and FB absolutely must moderate their content if democracy is meant to survive. Which it may not be, given the popularity of Trump, Le Pen, Putin etc.
I’ll tell you what’s up: credit card balances for those with <50k incomes. The pace of actual consumer inflation is far outstripping their wage increases.
In other news the ECB is bloviating, keeping rates unchanged and planning to pare future purchases. They are counting on other forces doing their job for them, eventually.
Musk is playing with fire. Competitors abound, and there is no loyalty in the sm space. He has only a certain number of acolytes. He could send Twitter to the shltter in no time at all. Which would be fine by me.
I just hope he isn't one of these libertarian pinheads who think their beautiful theory will work in the real world. To put a name on it, he may think we need no controls on speech whatsoever because the marketplace will take care of it. 'the best disinfectant is more speech' that sort of thing. Buy twitter, take the controls off and let 'er fly.
We have learned over the last years that more speech in this world = more lies and more disinformation. Twitter and FB absolutely must moderate their content if democracy is meant to survive. Which it may not be, given the popularity of Trump, Le Pen, Putin etc.
Yes, the everyman is incapable of understanding and synthesizing all potential stimuli and information—but more than that, Twitter is a political phenomenon, a partisan organization. They will therefore never accept his offer—and if they did, users would migrate very quickly.
...it's not a big problem except for people who buy a lot of energy.
That is a relative measure—relative to overall expense level. Gasoline and natgas/oil represent a very large proportion of the everyman’s expenses, obviously much greater than for higher earners.
X’ing out “volatiles” like energy and food is rubbish, especially in yoy measures, which smooth volatility.
...it's not a big problem except for people who buy a lot of energy.
That is a relative measure—relative to overall expense level. Gasoline and natgas/oil represent a very large proportion of the everyman’s expenses, obviously much greater than for higher earners.
X’ing out “volatiles” like energy and food is rubbish, especially in yoy measures, which smooth volatility.
gasoline is apparently around 4% of an average pretax income. Is that a 'very large' amount? Could be, if you are already stretched. But probably not.
of course you'd have to add on to that nat gas bills, etc.
That is a relative measure—relative to overall expense level. Gasoline and natgas/oil represent a very large proportion of the everyman’s expenses, obviously much greater than for higher earners.
X’ing out “volatiles” like energy and food is rubbish, especially in yoy measures, which smooth volatility.
gasoline is apparently around 4% of an average pretax income. Is that a 'very large' amount? Could be, if you are already stretched. But probably not.
of course you'd have to add on to that nat gas bills, etc.
Higher energy prices usually affect the price of everything though don't they?
gasoline is apparently around 4% of an average pretax income. Is that a 'very large' amount? Could be, if you are already stretched. But probably not.
of course you'd have to add on to that nat gas bills, etc.
Higher energy prices usually affect the price of everything though don't they?
Increased cost to produce and ship goods
well less and less as we become much more energy efficient. This isn't thre 1970s, when the economy was far more energy-dependent for growth.
plus, energy prices are a bit of a price stabilizer....meaning that if energy prices rise....then people pay more for gasoline and heat/nat gas...so they have less money to spend on goods and servces.....reducing demand....which takes away some of the hot demand for goods and services that is causing much of the inflation in the first place. higher gas prices are both inflationary and deflationary in a sense.
I was the track coach at Texas A&M-Kingsville when the price of oil dropped and we faced budget cuts. The price of oil affects everything up and down. I would assume the Permian Basin (Midland and Odessa, Texas) is in high cotton at the moment.
on topic, I just did a long drive on major highways....first time in 40 years or so. I was stunned by the number of 18 wheelers everywhere. at an given moment there is basically a line of tractor-trailers from coast to coast. I'm barely exaggerating. Driving on interstates is just going from one cluster of 18-wheelers to the next.
Hard to believe the supply chain won't iron itself out, with that much movement available. Although maybe the other way to look at it is....that there aren't any more trucks to move stuff -that we are at max trucking so every extra bit of demand we put on the system causes muck-ups.
I read Walmart is paying $110k for new in-house truckers. Astonishing.
Finally, the giant distribution centers along the highways are amazing. giant, giant areas of land built up for the use of those 18 wheelers. That's not stopping any time soon. and a big reason REITs are doing so well, along with health facilities. Office buildings are down but other sectors of commercial real estate are up. Nice.
I was the track coach at Texas A&M-Kingsville when the price of oil dropped and we faced budget cuts. The price of oil affects everything up and down. I would assume the Permian Basin (Midland and Odessa, Texas) is in high cotton at the moment.
heh
texas a generation ago is not the USA of today. Much less oil-dependent. And of course TX is the national leader in green energy and that isn't controlled so much by the price of oil.
but a different point is that the energy business is massively afraid of the boom-bust cycle...they remember just last year when oil had a negative price. They aren't yet spending to get production up very much - they know there will be a bust at some point soon so they don't want to stick out their capital necks very far. So the high prices of oil may not be passing down the food chain to the support industries as much as it has in the past.
That is a relative measure—relative to overall expense level. Gasoline and natgas/oil represent a very large proportion of the everyman’s expenses, obviously much greater than for higher earners.
X’ing out “volatiles” like energy and food is rubbish, especially in yoy measures, which smooth volatility.
gasoline is apparently around 4% of an average pretax income. Is that a 'very large' amount? Could be, if you are already stretched. But probably not.
of course you'd have to add on to that nat gas bills, etc.
How old is that stat, what was the “average” income cited, why not use the median, how does that relate to those below 50k, etc. And nobody in the real world cares about pre-tax anything. Taxes are an expense like any other, in fact many are included in the gasoline price.
Holiday shopping went on the credit card for many Americans last year, the New York Fed says, but it’s also a sign most households are still in pretty good shape financially.
