NXN 2024 - The Way Too Early Preview - BOYS

This is another year when multiple teams can win nationals. This is not like 2021 & 2022 when only one team could win nationals.

Herriman, Niwot, American Fork, and CBA all seem to be the top 4 teams right now (can be in any order).

Maybe Southlake Carroll and Belen Jesuit Prep can sneak into the podium but that will be tough.

it's not close at all Niwot and Herriman are in a league of their own.

Fair enough. It is mostly just the others that recruit. However I think their top guy was recruited.

Herriman and Niwot are in another world. AF and CBA will have to step the fck up to be able to compete.

Herriman have 3 returners and good depth and Soles who can develop and bring people out of nowhere.

Niwot have 7 returners are 14 deep for maximizing and talent to build up more and have Christiansen who is a really good coach.

AF return 1 in Evans who will be a solid low stick. Bement, Moore and Plewe will have to have a good summer and same with anyone else. They do have Mostert as their coach and people always seem to come out of nowhere

CBA has the best returners it seems with solid depth and a good low stick in Barrett. However Niwot in particular do better in cross than track and all the other coaches are just a little better at reloading and development.

SLC has a good 4 and low stick and All American in Leonard but #5-10(preferably) need to step up so they have depth and a fifth.

Belen Jesuit have a good low stick as a frosh and Socarras who came out of nowhere with a 4:04. They have another frosh as their projected #6. They need to improve across the board or get some nice transfers to be able to square with the other programs.

I want thoughts on my take. Am I overrating some schools and underselling others?

Good overall assessment.

American Fork has a transfer (Harrington) from San Clemente CA who raced at NXN twice.

CBA does lose 4 varsity guys, but they still return
Barrett - 8:43 / 4:08
Hnatt - 9:10 / 4:15
R Schmitt - 9:14 / 4:15
Mastroly - 9:16 / 4:16
Falkowski - 9:22 / 4:16
G Schmitt - 9:24 / 4:21
That’s probably the best returning group CBA has ever had, although sometimes it seems that they’re better at track than XC.

Herriman has 3 scoring returners + Manwaring who ran a 186 speed rating at RunningLane + two transfers (Tripp and Spencer)
Tomorrow Herriman will have a time trial, which should give a better idea of where they are at

I think CBA just peaks too early to really be competitive at nxn. I actually think their xc performances early in the season are more impressive than thier track times.

Last year at the Bowdon classic (Sept) they ran insane times, I've never seen a teams 5 man under 16:20. I was sure they were top 3 in the country, maybe even had a good shot to win. Then as you move to Manhattan, again insane times. All 5 under 13 with barret running low 12's blowing away Parra who came from CA and many thought would win.

But once you get to Champs season, their performance at nxr (at Bowdin) was worse than their opener at bowdin by decent amount. Imo they just choose to peak at states and don't focus on the national Champs season. I've seen this in other years too.

Forgot about the AF transfer.

CBA seem to struggle with peaking Idk why but their group is loaded and they can definitely surprise me come XC.

Herriman is a little ridiculous this year. I think only Niwot can really compete with them when NXN comes around.

LOL. I said the same thing just after

Here is the 5 man avg for CDA speed ratings at Bowdoin then at NXR, from 2018, 19, 21, 22, 23

2018 177.4 -> 176.4 -1.0

2019 173.2 -> 177 +3.8

2021 163.6 -> 166.4 +2.8

2022 178.4 -> 179 +0.6

2023 183.6 -> 184.2 +0.6

It appears as though CDA does marginally increase their overall fitness throughout the season, but I'm guessing that the other teams have bigger jumps, making the performances look more underwhelming than they are.

I personally disagree but everyone has their own opinions on this. Herriman and American Fork were top tier from the start, sure they may had some questionable performances along the way, but they were way better than what CBA was running in the early season.

I heard that speed ratings in the Northeast are higher than the speed ratings in the Southwest.

At the end of last fall, Barrett got sick and someone else took his #1 spot on CBA at NXR & NXN. At NXN 2023, CBA seniors performed well, but their nonseniors didn’t do their best

Ok but everyone on here acts like Herriman and American Fork had perfect days at NXN and that if this or that team had a perfect day, then they would of won but that is just not true. Herriman had two runners suck at NXN including their #1 runner. American Fork had a pretty bad day at nxn.

Qualifying and travel for NXN makes it look like some regions are better than others. I am not sure to what extent, but it clearly has an effect. There are reasons Nike does it this way, so it won't change. NE and NY qualify on a tough course as well. Any good coach would recognize the downfalls for some regions with this schedule:

November 10, 2024 - NXR Heartland Regional - Sioux Falls, South Dakota
November 16, 2024 - NXR Northwest Regional - Eagle Island, Idaho
November 17, 2024 - NXR Midwest Regional - Terre Haute, Indiana
November 23, 2024 - NXR Southwest Regional, NXR South Regional, NXR Southeast Regional
November 30, 2024 - NXR Northeast Regional, NXR New York Regional, California

Herriman time trial
Red=2022 times
Green=2023 times
Black=2024 times

Repost from Utah XC board:

Herriman time trial 2024 vs 2023 results:

'24 -> 12:16, 12:25, 12:31, 12:56, 12:59, (13:00), (13:03)
1-5 avg -> 12:37, 1-7 avg -> 12:44, 1-5 gap -> 43s, 1-7 gap -> 47s

'23 -> 12:13, 12:37, 12:38, 12:51, 12:59, (13:06), (13:07)
1-5 avg -> 12:39, 1-7 avg -> 12:47, 1-5 gap -> 46s, 1-7 gap -> 54s

I disagree that qualifying and travel for NXN makes some regions look better than others. Some regions genuinely are stronger and have greater depth. For example, the Southwest region is very competitive, with top teams facing each other all season, making it hard to truly gauge their strength. In contrast, in weaker regions with only one or two dominant teams, those teams might appear to be outstanding all season simply because they're dominating weaker competition. It's only at Nationals that the disparity becomes evident, and they realize they're not as strong as they seemed.

CIF races 4 weeks in a row before NXN. Two of those races were at Mt Sac, literally the most brutal hill course you can find. I am not saying it's necessarily a disadvantage but it most certainly is not an advantage.

But people on here keep act like California has this huge advantage where they don't have to run a NXR regionals. Oh Please. CIF Finals is a more competitive than any state meet outside of maybe Utah and Colorado.