A falling Bitcoin again becomes a barometer of risk off, along with rising Vix. Environment focus shifts from Ukraine back to inflation, interest rates, and Fed credibility. My thoughts.
Weren't you saying the stock market was the most overvalued in history 5 years ago? Didn't you miss out on all the profits like the rest of us were so lucky to accrue? When are you going to hop aboard the gravy train and enjoy what we are enjoying? The train is whizzing by. Hop on board!
Can't tell if serious or joking. But hype posts like this usually indicate a good time to sell.
Igy is correct. Five years ago he said valuations were the second highest in history.
So this is fun. The share of household financial assets invested in stocks ended 2021 at the highest extreme in history (and our most reliable measures are even worse). The last two times we got close, the S&P 500 lagged T-bills for the next 13-18 years.
Noob you may not be counting dividends, which are very large in that fund.
but of course Igy bought it lower than its price on 12/31/21 so his returns are higher than that.
agip, if you don’t mind, explain to noob how the 7.2% on the iBond is a variable rate.
I love being asked things like this.
iBonds pay interest in two streams:
1) a stream decided when you buy the bonds. You get that for the next 30 years. it will not change. Right now that number is....zero. It may go up in April but only by maybe 25-50 bps.
2) a stream that changes every 6 months. This number corresponds to the CPI. Right now that number is 7.2%. Every six months they change that number as long as you own the bonds. It will change in April.
So...worst case....you buy iBonds today and lock in 0% for 30 years in the base rate....and then there's deflation so you get 0% from the CPI adjustment. You would get no interest ever.
agip, if you don’t mind, explain to noob how the 7.2% on the iBond is a variable rate.
I love being asked things like this.
iBonds pay interest in two streams:
1) a stream decided when you buy the bonds. You get that for the next 30 years. it will not change. Right now that number is....zero. It may go up in April but only by maybe 25-50 bps.
2) a stream that changes every 6 months. This number corresponds to the CPI. Right now that number is 7.2%. Every six months they change that number as long as you own the bonds. It will change in April.
So...worst case....you buy iBonds today and lock in 0% for 30 years in the base rate....and then there's deflation so you get 0% from the CPI adjustment. You would get no interest ever.
that was confusing. in #1 I meant that the dollars you put into iBonds now will get a base rate of 0% for 30 years. Dollars you put into iBonds next month will likely pay a higher base rate for 30 years but it will not be a high number.
1) a stream decided when you buy the bonds. You get that for the next 30 years. it will not change. Right now that number is....zero. It may go up in April but only by maybe 25-50 bps.
2) a stream that changes every 6 months. This number corresponds to the CPI. Right now that number is 7.2%. Every six months they change that number as long as you own the bonds. It will change in April.
So...worst case....you buy iBonds today and lock in 0% for 30 years in the base rate....and then there's deflation so you get 0% from the CPI adjustment. You would get no interest ever.
that was confusing. in #1 I meant that the dollars you put into iBonds now will get a base rate of 0% for 30 years. Dollars you put into iBonds next month will likely pay a higher base rate for 30 years but it will not be a high number.
And if history is a guide in periods of higher inflation and/or interest rates the base rate would likely go up.
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