Down goes the Dow

Nobody who beats the market over a ten year period is on LetsRun bragging about it. The folks on here talking about beating the market just had a good month, or maybe even a good year which isn't unusual but it's also just luck. Most of you guys are just a little better than gamblers, every now and then you might get on a hot streak but overall you're losing to the house.

Exactly. If anyone has been beating the market by timing it for decades with substantial amount of money would be retired very rich.
And there are some people who do it, like 1% of the people. Or, they made a huge concentrated bet and it paid off big time to get rich quick. But usually, if they are smart, they would diversify after that.

But definitely difficult or impossible to time the market right for decades on.

It’s usually people bragging about getting few calls right and making some gains. Or made some calls right and 10x their money, but it wasn’t significant amount to begin with.

Why did I buy BMBL? Got too caught up in the IPO craze during the lockdowns. I just looked and they didn't even turn a profit last quarter. Dating apps are money printing machines (I would know: I'm a guy and have used them). What a failed business.

Tomorrow: Dump BMBL, buy HBAN.

I'm back after a few weeks break. What'd I miss? Are we bullish again? Why are stocks pumping?

Lol now that you have returned, they are sure to resume a downward trajectory😧

Mas, you still over in Switzerland? I was recently in contact with a handful of ex-buds for a variety of different independent reasons that somehow coincided in time (I'd heard from none of them in 5-10 years or longer), including two who are in Europe for the long haul, and another who spends time there with family regularly. Also, not sure if you are up to date on who currently leads the military in the Great White North, you may have known him (I did not) back in the day.

OK, back to the regularly scheduled banter...

I'm still sticking to my guns, betting against US tech, which is starting to look like a bad idea. We'll see... TSX 60 is still rocking though. :-)

Bear market rally, investors would be wise to take advantage of this rally to lower risk.

Not much of value there.

EMD = told you 😹

the yo-yoing between value and tech has been very unusual lately

they rarely go up together - it's usually one or the other.

today value flat

today tech down 140 bps

yesterday was roughly reversed.

which suggests to me that the machines are moving the market, not actual investors.

Not sure what to take away from that but it's weird.

Idiot no I am stateside right now. Will be doing a bunch of preventive medical crap here, then will go over. Can’t miss the alpine meadows!

There is also a swim across the lake that I was thinking about doing, it’s 13k. Honestly though, I don’t think I’m up for it. I have no problem in the pool, but the lake is colder and can be choppy. 2.5k between feeding/watering rafts. For people like my wife—who can literally fall asleep floating on her back in fresh water—it’s a different story. Her only issue would be how not to die from boredom.

Plus, I have an inside line on a chalet literally at the end of the road. Not jagged peaks right there, but rather alpine agrarian. It’s not even really for sale, but they will consider selling it for the right price. I don’t want to get ripped off, but it’s one of those properties that nobody ever really has the opportunity to buy. Will have to do some in personam axx kissing to make it work, we’ll see.

Yes I noticed WE up there. I think I vaguely remember him from at least basic, my memory on this one is hazy. I know he has gone to some class meet-ups. What can I say, he is a lifer, in the right spot at the right time. He has never had a job that I would want! At least he’s having some interesting times right now. He could be there for a while.

Unbelievable the personnel issues up there. Well, actually, totally believable, but ridiculous. I once received a commendation for actively involving female personnel...in a flag football game! I was incredulous.

When people say that only 10% of investors beat the market, what is the barometer? S&P? DOW?

Google is my friend....S&P. Just did a quick year over year calc, and my account is up by nearly the same percentage. Interesting considering I have new positions that have become major dogs (BABA, LCID, MMM, NKE).

Funny how the two of you came together on LRC after so many years. Common interests so shouldn’t be all that unusual. Neat though.

EMD chopping around early.

agip not so weird, value-growth seems to me to have been one of the great stock tensions. I tried to account for that contest in my recent assembly of securities, and it seems to be working.

Also oil-industrials, which also has been working.

In fact everything has gone well, except for 3 dogs: BASF, DANOY, and IMBBY. IMBBY will take care of itself. DANOY is a wait-and-see. BASF is like a one-way ratchet—instead of balancing off oil like other things, it falls while oil rises, and yet stagnates while oil falls😡.

I would like to a little more EMD, but the shares are up about a buck from the low of $9.38. A Belarus entry into the conflict, or a chemical weapons attack could be another downside trigger for emerging markets.

Iirc emd had something like 2% Ukraine exposure, I forget what the actual loans were.

Poland and Hungary are one thing, places like Ukraine quite another. Check this out:

hungarytoday.hu

Ukrainian Press: Wife of Ex-MP Stopped at Hungarian Border with Large Amounts of Currency - Hungary Today

Hungary Today

The wife of a former Ukrainian MP tried to leave the country at the Hungarian border with 28 million dollars and 1.3 million euros in cash.

Link:hungarytoday.hu/ihor-kotvytskyy-ukrain...

That’s a lot of USD cash. Nobody but governments—namely the US government—can get its hands on that much cash. Good thing the fund’s Ukrainian exposure is light.

EMD has 5% exposure to Russia and Ukraine as of last report of holdings. At the low point the fund was down over 20% YTD. As mentioned before the fund was trading near a 19 year low in the past month. NAV was well above price, and a 12% yield at that time. Good risk versus reward.