Successful timing of the markets does not happen. More happenstance than anything. A study done in the mid-90s concluded that market-timing and stock picking have a very small impact (4%) on yourc portfolio. 96% is on adequate diversification. Please quit with the "I have been successfully timing the market for decades." Doesn't happen.
😂😂😂😂👍👍
Been investing much longer than you and have been much more successful, I am sure. Your rantings here do not make you look like a smart investor.
Been investing much longer than you and have been much more successful, I am sure. Your rantings here do not make you look like a smart investor.
😂😂👍😂
"Successfully timing for the market for decades." You are liar. I looked at some of your more recent posts - you know nothing a bout the market. Just embarrassing you come here pretending to know anything. Next!
2. How do you know how successful, or not, someone else on here has been, apart from guessing?
If we're calling people liars today, put up or shut up...
I have read many studies about the futility of timing the markets. They can not be timed. That is the conclusion of many studies that I have read. I apologize for calling him a liar but I really don't believe the "I have been successfully timing the market for decades" is something that is true. Just like gamblers who will only talk about their wins and not their losses and generally gamblers are losing over the long haul. Again I apologize for calling him a liar without knowing his success or lack of.
Let's do this. Maser can pick 10 stocks over the next few months and we can monitor his "continued success in market timing" but we can actually monitor his success. Deal?
I don’t pretend anything. I am up-front, even here, with what I do. My best traits are that I listen, and I adapt. Recently I have listened to b&h’ers on here are held my trbcx, something I would not have done in the past. I have also listened on here and bought savings bonds as a result, which are handily outperforming markets so far, also something I have never before done. I have listened to others not on here and developed my own value-based portfolio, which is very handily beating markets ytd, also something I would not have done before.
I could go on, but why bother. My point is that you are also a timer, just more dogmatic and therefore less successful, and therefore more resentful.
You might want to relax and not just disagree with Igy out of hand, but instead look at the substance of his arguments and choose the best to incorporate into your own.
Sorry Sally. The “stock picking” of your world is not synonymous with the “market timing” of my world. You can look up dates and performance of things I have disclosed on here. As for always just disclosing wins “like a gambler”, 😂😂😂😂
Idiot otoh is more sympatico—I have listened to him as well, and found that we have already arrived at similar points of view regarding some Canadian securities.
Sally, man...you’re nuts! I still won’t block you, though.
Sorry Sally. The “stock picking” of your world is not synonymous with the “market timing” of my world. You can look up dates and performance of things I have disclosed on here. As for always just disclosing wins “like a gambler”, 😂😂😂😂
Idiot otoh is more sympatico—I have listened to him as well, and found that we have already arrived at similar points of view regarding some Canadian securities.
Sally, man...you’re nuts! I still won’t block you, though.
stock picking and market timing are two separate things. Why would you conflate the two?
There are two kinds of market timers, ones who fail to beat the market and ones who lie about it.
I would garner that “market timers” dramatically outperformed “index investors” at bear market lows. The reason being over exposure to highest index weighted story stocks. With the current most extreme market valuations in history, I see no reason why that will not be repeated at the coming market lows.
There are two kinds of market timers, ones who fail to beat the market and ones who lie about it.
I would garner that “market timers” dramatically outperformed “index investors” at bear market lows. The reason being over exposure to highest index weighted story stocks. With the current most extreme market valuations in history, I see no reason why that will not be repeated at the coming market lows.
How could you ever confirm that "market timers" dramatically outperformed "index investors" at bear market lows? It is simply impossible to ascertain. VTI is at 227. You have investors who have owned VTI for years now and you have market timing investors who bought VTI at 232, at 231, at 229, at 225, at 223, etc. You simply can not make a statement like that because market timers have been buying the fund at every price. Without looking at the dates that individual investors, the quantity, the prices, etc., you simply have no idea how they have done versus those who have bought and held.
2. How do you know how successful, or not, someone else on here has been, apart from guessing?
If we're calling people liars today, put up or shut up...
I have read many studies about the futility of timing the markets. They can not be timed. That is the conclusion of many studies that I have read. I apologize for calling him a liar but I really don't believe the "I have been successfully timing the market for decades" is something that is true. Just like gamblers who will only talk about their wins and not their losses and generally gamblers are losing over the long haul. Again I apologize for calling him a liar without knowing his success or lack of.
Let's do this. Maser can pick 10 stocks over the next few months and we can monitor his "continued success in market timing" but we can actually monitor his success. Deal?
Salster remember being careful with the data. Those studies you cite say that something like 90% of people can't time them markets over a ten year period. That does leave 10% who can.
I know I am certainly not among those who can, but those market beaters are out there. Theoretically. There's always luck playing a role.
I would garner that “market timers” dramatically outperformed “index investors” at bear market lows. The reason being over exposure to highest index weighted story stocks. With the current most extreme market valuations in history, I see no reason why that will not be repeated at the coming market lows.
How could you ever confirm that "market timers" dramatically outperformed "index investors" at bear market lows? It is simply impossible to ascertain. VTI is at 227. You have investors who have owned VTI for years now and you have market timing investors who bought VTI at 232, at 231, at 229, at 225, at 223, etc. You simply can not make a statement like that because market timers have been buying the fund at every price. Without looking at the dates that individual investors, the quantity, the prices, etc., you simply have no idea how they have done versus those who have bought and held.
That is a nothing statement. Any investor “market timer” that has more cash and less exposure to the index is going to outperform the “index investors.” You cannot prove this is a wrong comment, because it is intuitive to a logical thinker. Go back to the Grantham quote.
A VTI proxy would have had negative return 3/2000 thru 3/2013, thirteen years. VTI has no magic or place to hide in a severe bear market. Your only hope is the Fed is too chicken to fight inflation and every investor will buy the dip until they can’t afford to anymore. 😂
How could you ever confirm that "market timers" dramatically outperformed "index investors" at bear market lows? It is simply impossible to ascertain. VTI is at 227. You have investors who have owned VTI for years now and you have market timing investors who bought VTI at 232, at 231, at 229, at 225, at 223, etc. You simply can not make a statement like that because market timers have been buying the fund at every price. Without looking at the dates that individual investors, the quantity, the prices, etc., you simply have no idea how they have done versus those who have bought and held.
That is a nothing statement. Any investor “market timer” that has more cash and less exposure to the index is going to outperform the “index investors.” You cannot prove this is a wrong comment, because it is intuitive to a logical thinker. Go back to the Grantham quote.
I don't have time to go further into this but "market timers" have to time the market twice ... first when they buy and second when the sell. You have professionals who have spent years attempting to time the market, often without success, and you are saying amateurs are able to outsmart these professionals whose livelihoods are based on this?
How could you ever confirm that "market timers" dramatically outperformed "index investors" at bear market lows? It is simply impossible to ascertain. VTI is at 227. You have investors who have owned VTI for years now and you have market timing investors who bought VTI at 232, at 231, at 229, at 225, at 223, etc. You simply can not make a statement like that because market timers have been buying the fund at every price. Without looking at the dates that individual investors, the quantity, the prices, etc., you simply have no idea how they have done versus those who have bought and held.
That is a nothing statement. Any investor “market timer” that has more cash and less exposure to the index is going to outperform the “index investors.” You cannot prove this is a wrong comment, because it is intuitive to a logical thinker. Go back to the Grantham quote.
Please address why 70- to 80% of index funds outperform actively managed funds. I am very curious what you would say why index funds outperform actively managed funds and have done so for a very long time.
That is a nothing statement. Any investor “market timer” that has more cash and less exposure to the index is going to outperform the “index investors.” You cannot prove this is a wrong comment, because it is intuitive to a logical thinker. Go back to the Grantham quote.
Please address why 70- to 80% of index funds outperform actively managed funds. I am very curious what you would say why index funds outperform actively managed funds and have done so for a very long time.
In the fourteen calendar years of 2000-2013 active large cap blend active managers outperformed the S&P 500 Index ten of those periods. Really it is a matter of all the previous factors I mentioned. VTI is not a magic bullet, as you’re just starting to learn.
Please address why 70- to 80% of index funds outperform actively managed funds. I am very curious what you would say why index funds outperform actively managed funds and have done so for a very long time.
In the fourteen calendar years of 2000-2013 active large cap blend active managers outperformed the S&P 500 Index ten of those periods. Really it is a matter of all the previous factors I mentioned. VTI is not a magic bullet, as you’re just starting to learn.
You always fall back on cherry picking again and again and again. Always with 2000 as the starting point and ending around 2012 or 2013. Without fail. Why do you always pick 2000? Oh yeah, that's right. That is when the market took a huge dive.