I'm enjoying the new blocking function, I must say. I can see that specific posters with nothing interesting to say have said nothing interesting, but I don't have to read it.
To be clear, I have not blocked any of the regular gang of "mostly sane" DGTD posters, just some of the occasional, truly tiresome posters and the one who's always been here, under many names, but who's a little further removed from being "mostly sane," not naming any names... :-)
The Bank of Canada has raised its key interest rate for the first time since slashing the benchmark rate to near-zero at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, in a bid to tackle inflation rates that are likely to keep rising fr...
JPMorgan morning note: “50% increase in oil prices creates about $95bn in additional burden to maintain spending levels ... [but given] the $2.6t in excess savings accumulated over the pandemic .. the US consumer is set up to absorb higher energy prices for many years."
I'm enjoying the new blocking function, I must say. I can see that specific posters with nothing interesting to say have said nothing interesting, but I don't have to read it.
What a great new function. Oh, the power...! :-)
Agreed. I think most posters here have a good heart, though we may disagree on the markets. As I have stated numerous times, there is one deranged poster that has registered multiple handles for the express purpose to harass me. Weirdly creating handles using family names, wife’s name, and my former employer. The block function allows me to trash this truly sick and bizarre individual. :-)
JPMorgan morning note: “50% increase in oil prices creates about $95bn in additional burden to maintain spending levels ... [but given] the $2.6t in excess savings accumulated over the pandemic .. the US consumer is set up to absorb higher energy prices for many years."
Yeah I forsee this getting to complaining level (already sort of is) but not actual "stop spending" levels.
Takes a lot for the American consumer to close their wallets
I can't quite imagine the mindset of a portfolio manager who bought puts yesterday at VIX 34 and then sees the market rally 2% the next day and the value of your puts drop like a rock.
I can't quite imagine the mindset of a portfolio manager who bought puts yesterday at VIX 34 and then sees the market rally 2% the next day and the value of your puts drop like a rock.
Powell on why section on systematic policy was omitted from Fed's report to Congress:
"I, you know I, honestly, didn't know that was the case, or if someone talked to me about this before the thing was printed and sent up here, I don't remember, that's also a real possibility." pic.twitter.com/tlsWSTQfDZ
Some ideas from a JPM call today. I agree with most of this:
The end of COVID will lessen the labor shortage. People will feel safe enough to go out and work again.
Asia may suffer from COVID since it hasn't had much natural immunity and vaccination is spotty. Could cause supply chain issues
US tech shares are STILL very expensive and vulnerable to higher rates.
The actual real life inflation rate is probably around 5% - leaving out the weird stuff like used cars. Which is bad but not horrific.
Aftermath of Ukraine: Sell Europe. Too many obstacles to higher stock prices. High energy, high inflation, lower profits, geopolitical worries. Recession very possible or even likely.
Probably need to own energy sector now. it is far more efficient and interested in shareholder value now, plus it pays dividends and can sell oil at $100. Although probably OPEC will have to increase production soon. Look for green energy to get some gummint support as a national security issue.
The sanctions destroying the RU economy will result in less dependence on the USD. It scared a lot of nations that will now diversify. This is potentially very bad for the USA.
China is not a warlike power and therefore unlikely to invade Taiwan. It wants to be an economic power, and that kind of country does not do things that will cause big markets like the US and Europe to stop buying your stuff. Plus, the unity of the West was surprising and impressive to China.
The problem with value stocks in the US is low earnings growth. To really get a big pop in value shares you'd have to see earnings jump double digits and that is unlikely.
EM bonds are quite cheap but hard to own because volatility.
Stock summary: US is best suited of all major markets. US is more energy independent and the profits stay in the country. Little chance of recession. US banks have minimal exposure to RU.
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So in the end, the advice would be:
lighten up on US tech
Sell Europe but much there depends whether EU will do a big stimulus.
Neutral on Asia but if COVID starts be careful
US rates going higher.
Inflation should peak in the summer, not the spring.
A #March#stock rally does not negate the #risk of a #bear#market. With the market very oversold with deeply negative #sentiment, any good news could elicit a decent counter-trend rally. However, the #Fed still poses a more significant risk. https://t.co/gn6sa3tvcf