For investors who imagine the S&P 500 is somehow "cheap" at a P/E above 22 - amid record profit margins - you may want to examine historical data and think through what P/E ratios mean.
A value investor might look at emerging market debt closed end funds MSD and EMD. Trading at a discount to NAV. Trading in the range of historical lows. The do use leverage to enhance the yield which is about 6%. So cost of that leverage is likely to do up.
prices have rallied, yields have fallen because of the war
but the war will likely only make inflation higher, and therefore interest rates probably will go higher than we thought.
But a 50 bp jump in March is off the table.
So it sure seems like we've been given an opening to dump bonds at these (probably temporary) high prices, and wait to rebuy when the 10 year gets back above 2%.
Yeah that's market timing, but just seems a gift here without much downside.
prices have rallied, yields have fallen because of the war
but the war will likely only make inflation higher, and therefore interest rates probably will go higher than we thought.
But a 50 bp jump in March is off the table.
So it sure seems like we've been given an opening to dump bonds at these (probably temporary) high prices, and wait to rebuy when the 10 year gets back above 2%.
Yeah that's market timing, but just seems a gift here without much downside.
Twitter is absolutely obsessed with a 50bps rate hike as if it's really materially different than 25bps hike in March and another 25bps hike in April or May.
What happens if things don't cool off with Russia and Ukraine? China invades Taiwan? Seems like world tensions are the highest they've been in my lifetime right now...