Exactly. People quoting stats about past performance of the stock market are like sports gamblers who trout out meaningless data like "83% of the time, the Jets are able to hold on 3rd down when the weather is 30-40 degrees at an away game."
WW2 helped the U.S. economy to fully recover from the Depression and the markets to finally surpass the 1929 market highs. Today is quite the opposite, limited U.S. involvement, extreme asset valuations, aging demographics, and extreme Fed policies.
WW2 helped the U.S. economy to fully recover from the Depression and the markets to finally surpass the 1929 market highs. Today is quite the opposite, limited U.S. involvement, extreme asset valuations, aging demographics, and extreme Fed policies.
That's all true, and one might argue that conditions leading up to this (so far only regional) war are vastly different than those leading up to WW2. We have seen sustained high growth in valuations for several years (barring a few blips and one flash crash-recovery), whereas the 1 and 2-year change leading up to the start of war in 1939 was a pronounced decline.
However, when I probe that table I generated a bit more deeply, looking also at antecedent (leading) change up to the events, I find little difference in the following outcomes whether the markets had been in general decline or growth prior.
So I'm not sure your hypothesis holds water. That said, I personally think that markets have more room to fall, independent of recent, current and upcoming events, and have positioned myself accordingly (as I have said several times, no doubt boring the group by now...).
And it was the first night that i didn't lose sleep over it, believing this would happen. I must be learning. At least that's what i would like to believe.
Exactly. People quoting stats about past performance of the stock market are like sports gamblers who trout out meaningless data like "83% of the time, the Jets are able to hold on 3rd down when the weather is 30-40 degrees at an away game."
I love how they combin stats of modern teams with teams from decades ago. Like how the Bengals were 0-2 in the Super Bowl before this year, as if the 2022 team has anything to do with the 1980s teams.
Exactly. People quoting stats about past performance of the stock market are like sports gamblers who trout out meaningless data like "83% of the time, the Jets are able to hold on 3rd down when the weather is 30-40 degrees at an away game."
so you post endless posts ogling Ukraninian women but when they are being killed you remain silent and instead post about your 401k.
Exactly. People quoting stats about past performance of the stock market are like sports gamblers who trout out meaningless data like "83% of the time, the Jets are able to hold on 3rd down when the weather is 30-40 degrees at an away game."
so you post endless posts ogling Ukraninian women but when they are being killed you remain silent and instead post about your 401k.
The Ukrainian defenders of Snake Island -- who were all feared dead after their defiant response to threats from a Russian warship -- are actually 'alive and well,' according to the Ukrainian Navy.
big story today is bonds...strong rally in price, decline in yields. I think the bet is that the fed will not be in a hurry to tighten during a global crisis, and well trillions are moving out of stocks into bonds, for safety.
So Russians use what's left of their rubles to buy BTC (up 10% today) which will no doubt fall as regulators continue dismantling it. I suppose BTC is better than rubles though.