I misjudged things.
I was certain Russia would occupy Donbass. 100%. But, I thought it would stop there, with selective strikes at farther Ukrainian installations.
I was wrong. There are many possible reasons for the broader incursion, some possibly obvious and some subtle.
Now Europe is destabilizing, and a few of the companies I just bought are there. They are potentially very vulnerable to both scared investor sentiment and actual operational difficulties—like BASF and DANOY. A larger bunch are British, and also Swiss, and they could also be affected as a result.
Great timing. Thankfully only a very few are in the EU proper, and my total investment remains low. But geez.
In my admittedly tremendous ignorance, it occurs to me that there is ample room here for mutually-beneficial negotiation. Ample! What if Russia agreed to limit their presence and actions to Donbass and continue to pump gas through Ukraine, even at an increased rate, in exchange for Ukraine leaving Donbass alone, and agreeing to the operation of better flow tracking equipment to eliminate the dispute over whether Ukraine is stealing gas or not?
Win-win, maybe. Russia gets money, Donbass independence, and gets to claim victory. Ukraine gets money, effectively “sells” Donbass to the independents/Russia, and gets to claim victory. The flow of gas to Europe actually increases. NATO finally gets Germany to spend 2%. France has more justification for a Euro army. Hungary and Poland have more support for border fortifications. US crude supplies are maintaine, and Biden can claim victory in Ukraine and at the pump, and potentially over the rising CPI. Belarus keeps the points it won in support of Russia.
Britain and maybe Canada seem like the odd men out. So what, f’em. The money flows again to the Rothschilds, China continues the silent takeover of Europe, and the US has a great justification for telling the Euros that they need to buy more US military gear.
There are many options. Yeah nukes and NATO could be a big deal, but there are many other dimensions to this, that might be used effectively. It all started with money, the whole Rothschild bank thing in Russia, and what it means for sovereignty.
OTOH if this really is a “principled conflict”, then we are in it for the long haul, and will have to figure out how to navigate a new landscape.